MLB Grind Down: Saturday, April 11th Page Three

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-04-11 20:45:24

Houston at Texas

Pitcher Grind Down

Roberto Hernandez – Roberto Hernandez continues to travel across the league looking for a place to start and he has found that in Houston this year. Hernandez will never be a fantasy commodity, as he is coming off another sub-par year and a low 5.74 K/9 rate. He walks a ton of batters (3.99 BB/9) and his xFIP of 4.52 shows why we need to continue avoiding him even against a Rangers squad that is not as imposing as it has been in years past. Rating = 4

Yovani Gallardo – Yovani Gallardo is the ace for the Rangers, but did not pitch anything like that in their opening day game as he went only four innings and gave up four earned runs. He did strike out five batters in this game, which is good to see, as his K/9 was the lowest in his career in 2014 at 6.83. If he can get back to an eight or nine K/9 rate, Gallardo would become a decent fantasy starter. He has a decent matchup for strikeouts tonight as the Astros K% in 2014 was 23.8 for second-highest in the league. He makes a tournament play only tonight. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Jed Lowrie (FD: $2700, DK: $4200)

BA: 0.261 / wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.152
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 / ISO: 0.151

Lowrie is playing very well in the first week of the season, which may allow him to get bumped up in the order a bit. Even if he doesn’t, he is a cheap SS if you want to be contrarian and not play Tulo tonight and is a guy who could do some damage for you if Gallardo struggles.

Secondary Plays:

Luis Valbuena (FD: $2500, DK: $4200) vs RH pitching wOBA: .303/ISO: .125

Jose Altuve (FD: $4100, DK: $4800) vs RH pitching wOBA: .304/ISO: .085

Texas

Adrian Beltre (FD: $3900, DK: $5100)

BA: 0.284 / wOBA: 0.349 / ISO: 0.194
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.198

Another player who is going to have to play well in a tough position this year is Beltre. Unlike Freeman, Beltre has not started the year off too strong. He has, however, had three hits in his last two games including a double and a homerun. These are the type of results we should continue to see in a great matchup against Hernandez.

Secondary Plays:

Shin-Soo Choo (FD: $3100, DK: $4900) vs RH pitching wOBA: .393/ISO: .204

Leonys Martin (FD: $3000, DK: $5000) vs RH pitching wOBA: .318/ISO: .125

Chicago Cubs at Colorado

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Hammel – I bet Jason Hammel was a bit upset by the fact that instead of pitching at Wrigley with the wind blowing in, he now has to take his skills into Colorado where pitching goes to die. Hammel is not a groundball pitcher, which becomes a problem in Coors and should be avoided in this setting. Rating = 3

Kyle Kendrick – Kyle Kendrick was one of those guys on Opening Day that upset a lot of us DFSers as he blanked the Brewers in a great start. He went seven strong innings of seven hit ball with six strikeouts and a lot of upset Braun and Gomez owners later, brings us to his next start at Coors. Like Hammels’ write up, the Coors factor is enough in it self to make us avoid the pitchers, and Kendrick is no different tonight. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4700, DK: $6300)

BA: 0.254 / wOBA: 0.359 / ISO: 0.205
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.198

While it didn’t go exactly according to plan last night, this game is again projected to score the most runs tonight. While Kendrick did pitch well in his first start, he now has to try to do it in Coors and I do not think that will happen. Rizzo mashes RH pitching for a wOBA of .347 and Kendrick allows LH hitters to a wOBA of .360. Rizzo is one of the top plays on the board tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Dexter Fowler (FD: $3500, DK: $5100) vs RH pitching wOBA: .318/ISO: .125

Jorge Soler (FD: $4000, DK: $5900) vs RH pitching wOBA: .412/ISO: .324

Chris Coghlan (FD: $3600, DK: $4600) vs RH pitching wOBA: .362/ISO: .186

Colorado

Carlos Gonzalez (FD: $4700, DK: $5700)

BA: 0.294 / wOBA: 0.373 / ISO: 0.227
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 / ISO: 0.249

While CarGo and the Rockies have a tougher matchup on paper, the Coors factor eliminates that. The knock on Gonzalez has never been his production, but his ability to stay healthy over the course of the season. He is healthy right now and playing extremely well for the Rockies. He has a wOBA of .390 against RH pitching in his career as well as an ISO of .249. Get him in your lineups tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Corey Dickerson (FD: $4800, DK: $6000) vs RH pitching wOBA: .419/ISO: .278

Charlie Blackmon (FD: $3700, DK: $5000) vs RH pitching wOBA: .350/ISO: .158

Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $5400, DK: $6000) vs RH pitching wOBA: .404/ISO: .207

Nolen Arenado (FD: $4600, DK: $5100) vs RH pitching wOBA: .339/ISO: .188

LA Dodgers at Arizona

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Kershaw – Along with the Brewers bats, Kershaw was the other sure thing on Opening Day that did not do as well as expected. He did strike out nine batters in that start, while giving up three earned runs and most surprisingly only lasting six innings. Kershaw will look to bounce back against a Diamondback offense that can put up some runs as they do have some hefty bats that can get to LH pitching. If he can avoid Goldy and Trumbo, Kershaw should be able to pitch around the rest of this lineup. Kershaw is always a top option on the board regardless and his price is majorly depressed from where it rose to at some sites last year. He is a top option on the night slate. Rating = 9

Archie Bradley – Archie Bradley will be making his first career start and lucky him, he gets to go head to head with Kershaw. Bradley’s minor league numbers do not jump right off the table, but his last year numbers could be due to injury problems to his right elbow. He has high upside over the course of this year, but this first start is a landmine of a tough matchup against the Dodgers, and a difficult field as Chase Field is major pitcher friendly. Avoid him tonight until we see him on the field. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $5300, DK: 4600)

BA: 0.293 / wOBA: 0.369 / ISO: 0.210
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.236

It is a tough call for top first basemen of the night with Rizzo in Coors and AGon at Chase. I would give the edge to Rizzo at FD and Gonzalez at DK due to dramatic price differences. Gonzalez is simply the hottest player in the league at the moment and gets a prime matchup against a young pitcher in a hitters park. He is an easy play tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Yasiel Puig (FD: $4000, DK: $4700) vs RH pitching wOBA: .393/ISO: .209

Jimmy Rollins (FD: $3700, DK: $4100) vs RH pitching wOBA: .330/ISO: .164

Yasmani Grandal (FD: $2900, DK: $3700) vs RH pitching wOBA: .347/ISO: .176

Arizona

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays:

None

San Francisco at San Diego

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner – In what should be the pitching matchup of the night, Bumgarner and the Giants take the trip to San Diego against Shields. Bumgarner pitched well in his first start allowing only one earned run in seven innings. His strikeouts were not there as he only struck out three in his first start, but that should see a major bump over the course of the year as he is usually in the eights or nine range per nine innings. I expect him to dominate an improved Padres lineup in the best pitcher’s park in the league. The win may be difficult as this game should be very low scoring, but Bumgarner is as safe as they come. Rating = 8

James Shields – James Shields is going to love pitching in San Diego and he will get his first taste of it tonight. He is coming off a difficult matchup against the Dodgers where he struck out eight batters and only allowed two earned runs in six innings. He will look to match those numbers tonight against the Giants who have struggled to score runs at Petco. Rating =8

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays:

None

San Diego

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays:

None

Kansas City at LA Angels

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie steps into the fifth starter role for the Royals this year and he fits that role perfectly. His xFIP has been consistently above 4.00 over his entire career, he has a very low 5.51 K/9 and he will usually give you about six to seven innings max. He is not a fantasy option tonight against a tough Angels squad. Rating = 5

Jered Weaver – Jered Weaver comes into this game looking to rebound from his Opening Day start against the Mariners where he went six innings, while giving up four earned runs. Weaver’s ERA and FIP have increased over the last three seasons while seeing his BB/9 increase to a 2.74. The jury is still out on Weaver, but he still did win 18 games for a solid Angels squad last year. The offense behind him should give him some good run support tonight, which puts Weaver in play, but a tournament play for me. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

No elite plays

Secondary Plays:

Alex Gordon (FD: $3400, DK: $4000) vs RH pitching wOBA: .348/ISO: .167

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun (FD: $3500, DK: $4600)

BA: 0.268 / wOBA: 0.335 / ISO: 0.172
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 / ISO: 0.190

Calhoun finally came to life last night and hit a double, which will hopefully give him some confidence going forward. Last year, Calhoun raked RH pitching for a .348 wOBA and gets a nice matchup against Guthrie who allowed a .376 wOBA to lefties last year. I expect this Angels squad to score some runs tonight and it should start with Calhoun.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout (FD: $5100, DK: $5600) vs RH pitching wOBA: .404/ISO: .283