MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 16th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-08-17 00:47:22

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Philadelphia at San Francisco

Philadelphia					San Francisco
Kyle Kendrick		Vegas Moneyline			Tim Hudson		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SFG (-200)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.297	0.856	0.373	16.50%	SP vs. Left	0.273	0.751	0.327	12.00%
SP vs. Right	0.240	0.666	0.297	12.60%	SP vs. Right	0.229	0.599	0.262	19.60%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick brings a 5-11 record and 4.88 ERA into today’s game against San Francisco and he continually proves to be one of the most fantasy irrelevant veteran pitchers around. He was hammered for 10 hits and six runs in five innings against the Mets in his last start while only managing to strikeout one batter. He owns a 5.57 ERA on the road this season and shouldn’t be too hard to avoid today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5400 FD, $10500 DD, $5500 DK, $NA FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Tim Hudson – Hudson brings a spectacular 2.81 ERA into his 24th start of the season this afternoon at home against Philadelphia. He continues to be a groundball machine (54.9% GB%) and should have plenty of success once again against this Phillies team that ranks #29th in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.291 wOBA). The only thing holding him back from a higher rating today is his somewhat pedestrian 15% strikeout percentage. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7100 FD, $15850 DD, $6800 DK, $ FF, $19000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Utley brings a five game hitting streak into today’s game and is now hitting .302 against right-handed pitching this season. He’s posted a 1.130 OPS over the last week and has seen Tim Hudson plenty of times in the past.

Additional Plays: Ryan Howard, Marlon Byrd

San Francisco

Pablo Sandoval – Lefties own a .374 wOBA against Kendrick this season and Sandoval has been much more successful from the left-side of the plate this season (.855 OPS). He’s hitting .304 since the all-star break and .314 at AT&T Park this season. Sandoval has also had success against Kendrick in the past, going 3 for 9 with a homerun.

Additional Plays: Angel Pagan, Hunter Pence

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay

NY Yankees					Tampa Bay
Shane Greene		Vegas Moneyline			Drew Smyly		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-135)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.712	0.320	10.8%	SP vs. Left	0.183	0.481	0.214	27.70%
SP vs. Right	0.213	0.565	0.262	30.8%	SP vs. Right	0.307	0.889	0.385	17.40%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shane Greene – Greene had the best start of his young career in his last start, tossing eight shutout innings against a very dangerous Detroit Tigers lineup. That outing improved his record to 3-1 through six starts and lowered his ERA down to 2.89. In four daytime starts this season, Greene has been even better; posting a 2-0 record, 2.13 ERA and racking up nearly a strikeout per inning. This Tampa Bay team hits the ball far better at Tropicana Field which does raise a red flag, but Greene is still an option today especially as a secondary starter on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $9000 DD, $6700 DK, $NA FF, $18400 SS, $NA FTD

• Drew Smyly – Smyly did his best David Price impression for the Rays in his last start, holding the Texas Rangers to zero runs on just three hits in 7.2 innings of work. After some rough outings in late-June/early-July, Smyly has found a groove since the All-Star break, posting a 2.93 ERA and 9.98 K’s/9 in five starts. He’s dominated left-handed batters all season which should help him against the top half of this Yankees order but there is still a lot of risk here. He’s best served as a high-risk/high-reward option in GPP’s. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7400 FD, $12700 DD, $7700 DK, $ FF, $20600 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Mark Teixeira – Smyly has been dominant vs. lefties (.208 wOBA) but has been hammered by righties (.376 wOBA) this season. Teixeira has been rather cold lately, but he does own a career .924 OPS versus left-handed pitching and had a pair of hits in last night’s game.

Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Derek Jeter, Francisco Cervellli

Tampa Bay

Matt Joyce – With a righty on the mound for the Yankees, Joyce becomes a solid option. He’s posted an .888 OPS since the All-Star break and owns a .364 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He’ll likely find himself right in the heart of the Ray’s order and should be able to take advantage of it

Additional Plays: Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist

Baltimore at Cleveland

Baltimore					Cleveland
Ubaldo Jimenez		Vegas Moneyline			Carlos Carrasco		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-125)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.799	0.364	17.0%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.691	0.309	19.80%
SP vs. Right	0.242	0.685	0.308	23.9%	SP vs. Right	0.214	0.601	0.269	26.20%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ubaldo Jimenez – Ubaldo’s rather forgetable 2014 season continues as he owns a 4-8 record, 4.51 ERA and 1.53 WHIP through his first 19 starts. Today he’ll take on an Indians team who smacked him around for five earned runs in just four innings of work in their only other meeting this season and who currently rank #3 in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Ubaldo has been much more effective away from Camden Yards this season (3.70 ERA in 9 starts) but this matchup makes him a very risky endevour in cash games. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6200 FD, $11250 DD, $6300 DK, $73000 FF, $16300 SS, $11250 FTD

• Carlos Carrasco – I’m still shaking my head at the Yankees hitters after Carrasco held them to just two hits over five shutout innings last Sunday. I’m certainly not buying into that performance as this is a guy who posted a 6.75 ERA last season. However, his advanced stats suggested that he was quite unlucky last season (4.33 xFIP) so there is room for some optimism here. Regardless, he’ll face a very dangerous Baltimore lineup that leads MLB in homeruns, so there are much better options on the board. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5300 FD, $7800 DD, $5500 DK, $60500 FF, $13700 SS, $7800 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Davis has been dreadful this year, but lefties blasted Corrasco to the tune of a .352 batting average last season and Crush Davis still possesses elite power potential.

Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – Lefties own a .356 wOBA off of Ubaldo this season and Brantley owns a ridiculous .422 wOBA this season against right-handed pitching. He owns a .962 OPS at Progressive Field this season and is hitting .365 during the month of August.

Additional Plays: Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall

Pittsburgh at Washington

Pittsburgh					Washington
Jeff Locke		Vegas Moneyline			Gio Gonzalez		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		WAS (-165)			LEFT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.182	0.511	0.223	8.8%	SP vs. Left	0.232	0.694	0.309	26.10%
SP vs. Right	0.277	0.756	0.332	19.1%	SP vs. Right	0.231	0.667	0.299	24.10%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeff Locke – Things have falled apart for Locke since the All-Star break, as he’s posted a 6.00 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in five second half starts. With that said, he still sports a 4-3 record with a solid 3.98 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 13 starts this season. He’s struggled a bit on the road this year (4.28 ERA and 1.49 WHIP) and will be tasked with facing a Nationals team who have been heating up at the plate. His recent struggles are a red-flag, but he’s still in play as a secondary option if the price is right. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5900 FD, $12450 DD, $5900 DK, $73900 FF, $17000 SS, $12450 FTD

• Gio Gonzalez – Things have turned rather ugly for Gio lately as he owns a 0-4 record with a 5.47 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break. He was forced from his last start after just 4.2 innings of work as his pitch count reached 111 against Atlanta. After being dominant at home last season, Gio sports a rather unsightly 4.60 ERA at Nationals Stadium this season. He’ll face a Pirates team who owns MLB’s best wOBA since the All-Star break (.337) but will obviously sorely miss Andrew McCutchen while he’s on the DL. His recent performances have made him hard to trust, but he racks up strikeouts and can dominate any time he takes the mound, so he’s a fine GPP option. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8800 FD, $15900 DD, $9300 DK, $75000 FF, $25800 SS, $15900 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Josh Harrison – Harrison posted a .981 OPS last season and has crushed Gio Gonzalez in the past, going 4 for 6 with a pair of homeruns. He’s been seeing time at the leadoff spot for this Pirates team and owns a .978 OPS since the All-Star break.

Additional Plays: Jordy Mercer, Starling Marte

Washington

Anthony Rendon – Rendon extended his hitting streak to seven games last night and owns a .377 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Right handed hitters have posted a .341 wOBA against Locke this season and Rendon should once again find himself hitting 3rd in this Nationals lineup.

Additional Plays: Ian Desmond, Jayson Werth (if he’s back), Asdrubal Cabrera

Seattle at Detroit

Seattle					Detroit
Felix Hernandez		Vegas Moneyline			David Price		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-115)			LEFT		6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.195	0.501	0.227	25.2%	SP vs. Left	0.251	0.697	0.307	25.00%
SP vs. Right	0.187	0.519	0.231	32.0%	SP vs. Right	0.231	0.638	0.280	28.40%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Felix Hernandez – A great pitching matchup awaits us tonight in Motown as King Felix squares off against Detroit’s newest toy, David Price at Comerica Park. He’s a groundball machine (56.1%) and yet still manages to rank 5th among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate (28.3% K%). He’s in cruise control right now, owning a 1.25 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break. This Detroit offense is certainly dangerous, and securing a win with Price opposing him will be no easy task, but Felix is matchup proof and still an elite option. Rating = 9

Salaries: $11400 FD, $21750 DD, $12400 DK, $143000 FF, $33000 SS, $21750 FTD

• David Price – Price hasn’t performed quite as well as he’d like to for his new team thus far, but he’ll still enter tonight’s game sporting an 11-8 record, 3.21 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and the MLB lead in strikeouts. Price dominated this left-handed loaded Seattle team in both prior starts this season, posting a 2.12 ERA and strikeing out 22 in 17 innings of work. The Mariners rank #29 in MLB in wOBA against left-handed pitching which firmly solidifies Price as a top tier option today. Rating = 9

Salaries: $11000 FD, $21550 DD, $12200 DK, $126100 FF, $30800 SS, $21550 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle & Detroit

A battle between two of the games elite pitchers is not the place to look to find appealing batting options outside of fliers in GPP’s.

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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