MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 23rd

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-01-14 19:36:12

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees

Chicago White Sox					NY Yankees
Scott Carroll		Vegas Moneyline			Hiroki Kuroda		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.304	0.881	0.385	9.60%	SP vs. Left	0.257	0.704	0.311	13.70%
SP vs. Right	0.270	0.715	0.322	14.80%	SP vs. Right	0.247	0.683	0.302	18.50%
Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Scott Carroll – Carroll has been shelled in each of his three starts this month, posting a 8.15 ERA and 1.70 WHIP over 17.2 August innings. His 55.1% groundball rate is among the games best and when he keeps the ball down he’s had some very effective starts, but unfortunately he’s clearly not always able to hit his spots. While he’s not an overly appealing fantasy option, it’s worth noting that he’s performed much better on the road this season (4.09 ERA) and has been quite good during the daytime (3-0 record with a 2.43 ERA in 33.1 innings). Rating = 4

Salaries: $5200 FD, $10550 DD, $5700 DK, $NA FF, $13000 SS, $NA FTD

• Hiroki Kuroda – Kuroda was slow to get going this season, but he’s now posted a 4-3 record with a 3.62 ERA over his last ten starts. Kuroda failed to get through five innings against a Jose Abreu-less White Sox team in their only other meeting this season and didn’t have much luck against them last year, either. His strikeout rate has dipped to a rather pedestrian 5.96 K’s/9 on the season which makes him better served as a secondary option on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $12850 DD, $7400 DK, $ FF, $19300 SS, $12850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – After an extended homerun drought, Abreu has now gone yard twice in the last three games. He possesses elite power potential and has posted a .401 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Conor Gillaspie, Avisail Garcia, Alexei Ramirez

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Lefties own a .385 wOBA against Scott Carroll this season and Ellsbury will bring his five game hitting streak into this afternoon’s game. Ellsbury has flourished at Yankee Stadium this year, posting a .332 average and .866 OPS at home. I expect the Yankees to have a nice day offensively and Ellsbury will find himself right in the thick of things hitting in the #3 hole.

Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Stephen Drew

Tampa Bay at Toronto

Tampa Bay					Toronto
Jeremy Hellickson		Vegas Moneyline			Mark Buehrle		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					LEFT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.203	0.560	0.255	17.5%	SP vs. Left	0.276	0.748	0.331	14.10%
SP vs. Right	0.292	0.771	0.340	21.6%	SP vs. Right	0.289	0.768	0.338	13.70%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs L		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson has been quite sharp after returning to the Rays from an elbow injury that kept him out of action for the first three months of the season. In six starts this season, he rocks a 2.56 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 31.2 innings. Things won’t be easy for him this afternoon in Toronto as he’ll take on a Blue Jays team that leads MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.338 wOBA) and who rank #2 in wOBA at home (.346 wOBA at Rogers Centre). Hellickson stuggled last season on his way to 5.17 ERA in 31 starts and his 4.31 xFIP this year points to a regression from his early success. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5500 FD, $11300 DD, $6500 DK, $NA FF, $18600 SS, $11300 FTD

• Mark Buehrle – On the surface, Buehrle’s 11-8 record and 3.38 ERA look rather impressive, however his 1.41 WHIP and 4.26 xFIP both suggest that he’s been rather lucky. He’s been way too hittable lately, allowing 26 hits over just 12.2 innings in his last three starts. His 13.8% strikeout percentage ranks as the 5th worst in MLB this season among qualified pitchers. He owns a 6.67 ERA in six second half starts this year, but has pitched extremely well in three starts against this Tampa Bay team this season. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6300 FD, $11850 DD, $5300 DK, $ FF, $14200 SS, $11850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Ben Zobrist – Zobrist has mashed left-handed pitching all season, posting a .359 batting average and .402 wOBA against southpaws this season. He’ll square off against the soft tossing (and struggling) Mark Buehrle this afternoon and he’s had his number in the past, going 8 for 21 off of him. After a slow start to the season, Zobrist is back in his groove and is now hitting .343 since July 25th.

Additional Plays: Evan Longoria, Desmond Jennings, Brandon Guyer

Toronto

Jose Reyes – Anytime you see Reyes at home against a right-handed pitcher, be ready to pounce. He’s hitting .320 this season on the turf at the Rogers Center and owns a solid .344 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He’s been hot for weeks now and owns a .368 batting average during the month of August.

Additional Plays: Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Colby Rasmus, Melky Cabrera

Detroit at Minnesota

Detroit					Minnesota
Buck Farmer		Vegas Moneyline			Yohan Pino		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.283	0.771	0.340	16.20%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.253	0.761	0.326	22.20%
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Buck Farmer – Farmer performed rather well at single A this season, but was just absolutely blasted in his first start at AAA, giving up seven earned runs in just 0.1 innings earlier this week. He didn’t fair well in his MLB debut either, giving up four runs in just five innings of work against the Pirates last week. While Minnesota doesn’t boast the most threatening lineup in MLB, they do rank 11th in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Rating = 2.5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $13750 DD, $5800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Yohan Pino – Pino was lit up for seven earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Astros in his last MLB start and was promptly sent back down to AAA Rochester. While he may sport an unsightly 5.37 ERA at the MLB level, he has been dominant at AAA this year posting a 10-2 record and 2.47 ERA in 73 innings. His 4.12 xFIP for the Twins suggests that he’s pitched better than his results indicate but he’ll have his handsful against a Detroit team who owns a .324 team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He’s owns a solid 3.77 ERA in five starts at Target Field this season but trusting him is still a risky proposition. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5300 FD, $10250 DD, $5500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Mr. Triple Crown appears to be heating back up, and that’s bad news for the right-handed Yohan Pino. He’s hitting .378 over the last 12 games and has scored 12 runs during that stretch. He’s been in a bit of an RBI drought lately, but we know that won’t last long.

Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Torri Hunter

Minnesota

Kennys Vargas – Vargas leads MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching by posting a .465 wOBA during his short MLB career. He’s racked up five hits (3 doubles and a homerun) over the last two games and is in an excellent spot this afternoon against the unproven righty Buck Farmer

Additional Plays: Joe Mauer, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia

Seattle at Boston

Seattle					Boston
Chris Young		Vegas Moneyline			Brandon Workman		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0.759	0.333	13.8%	SP vs. Left	0.237	0.717	0.320	18.70%
SP vs. Right	0.173	0.555	0.245	17.7%	SP vs. Right	0.216	0.662	0.293	17.50%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Young – Young just keeps getting results, as his last outing (six shutout innings against Detroit) pushed his record to 12-6 and his ERA down to 3.06 through 24 starts. However, his xFIP of 5.15 is the highest among all qualified starters this season, which indicates that he’s been extremely fortunate. While Young has been terrific all year at Safeco Park, he’s been much more hittable on the road (3.93 ERA and 1.28 WHIP). With limited strikeout potential, a rising price-tag and red flags all over his advanced stats, i’m not recommending Young tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $2200 FD, $14700 DD, $7900 DK, $NA FF, $22300 SS, $14700 FTD

• Brandon Workman – Workman pitched quite well in his last start, holding the Angels to just two runs on six hits over seven innings in a losing effort. He’s yet to record a “W” at Fenway Park this season and the Red Sox have dropped the last six games in which he’s started. However, this is a guy who racked up 10.15 K’s/9 in his limited action at the MLB level last year and he’s pitched much better than his 1-7 record would indicate. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5500 FD, $11200 DD, $5600 DK, $ FF, $13300 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Cano posted his second straight multi-hit game last night and has raised his batting average to .330 on the season and now he has a great matchup on tap tonight in Fenway against Brandon Workman. He’s batting .352 this season against right-handed pitching and .340 away from Safeco Field. He owns a 1.012 OPS during the month of August and owns a .941 OPS during his career at Fenway Park.

Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley

Boston

David Ortiz Big Papi is locked in at the plate right now, racking up 13 hits (3 doubles and 4 homeruns) over his last six games. He owns a 1.171 OPS during the month of August and is in an ideal spot for success at home against a soft-tossing right-hander (Chris Young).

Additional Plays: Dustin Pedroia, Daniel Nava

San Francisco at Washington

San Francisco					Washington
Tim Lincecum		Vegas Moneyline			Jordan Zimmermann		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.744	0.333	14.3%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.681	0.300	19.10%
SP vs. Right	0.247	0.757	0.331	27.2%	SP vs. Right	0.248	0.638	0.284	23.90%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tim Lincecum – Lincecum has shown flashes of his old self at times this season, but the former Cy Young winner has been a disaster lately. He’s posted a 9.00 ERA and 2.09 WHIP over his last five starts and opposing batters are hitting .320 off of him since the All-Star break. He’ll enter today’s game in Washington sporting an unsightly 5.98 ERA in 10 road start this season. There is way too much risk here for me to consider him in cash games, but he can still rack up strikeouts and randomly likes to pitch gems so he’s still an option as a GPP flier. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $13000 DD, $7100 DK, $NA FF, $18600 SS, $13000 FTD

• Jordan Zimmermann – After struggling a bit earlier this season closing the month of May sporting a 4.07 ERA, Zimmerman has posted a 2.25 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 14 starts since (92 innings). Dating back to the beginning of last season, he’s amassed a 16-5 record, 2.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 32 starts at Nationals Park. This San Francisco team has struggled against right-handed pitching this season (.297 wOBA) and Zimmermann has been nearly unhittable in day games (1.83 ERA in six starts). Rating = 8

Salaries: $8500 FD, $17350 DD, $9600 DK, $ FF, $27700 SS, $17350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Jordan Zimmermann is one of my top pitching choices of the night and I will not be targeting any batters against him.

Washington

Ian Desmond – Here comes the BvsP play of the day; Desmond has absolutely OWNED Tim Lincecum in his career, going 10 for 14 with two doubles and two homeruns. He’s scored runs in four straight games and has racked up 11 RBI’s over his last 15 games.

Additional Plays: Adam LaRoche, Bryce Harper, Denard Span, Jayson Werth

Baltimore at Chicago Cubs

Baltimore					Chicago Cubs
Bud Norris		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Hendricks		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.237	0.693	0.308	17.0%	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.655	0.289	15.90%
SP vs. Right	0.250	0.717	0.319	19.6%	SP vs. Right	0.179	0.465	0.211	15.20%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Bud Norris – Bud Norris will take the mound against a Cubs team that ranks right near the bottom of MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He’ll also see a small fantasy boost with the DH being eliminated in this game at Wrigley Field. However, his ERA sits 1.49 points higher on the road than at home and he’s already served up nine career homeruns in just 30.1 innings of work at Wrigley Field during his career. With that said, he quietly owns a 7-1 record, 2.87 ERA and 7.69 K/s9 over his last ten starts. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7400 FD, $12950 DD, $7600 DK, $NA FF, $21400 SS, $12950 FTD

• Kyle Hendricks – To say Henricks has been impressive thus far with the Cubs would be an understatement. He’s allowed one earned run or less in each of his last six starts and now sports a 5-1 record to go along with a 1.48 ERA and 0.95 WHIP after seven career starts. However, his .232 BABIP and 3.85 xFIP suggest that he’s benefited from some good fortune along the way and his 5.36 K’s/9 leaves a bit to be desired as well. The Orioles own the most HR’s in MLB and certainly make for a formidable opponent. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $15250 DD, $7500 DK, $ FF, $23800 SS, $16300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Nelson Cruz – After his scorching hot start to the season, Cruz has cooled off considerably. However, he still owns a .938 OPS on the road this season and has the power to send the ball onto Waveland Ave.

Additional Plays: Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Chris Davis

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo has his four game hitting streak snapped last night, but he owns a .309 batting average at Wrigley Field this season and Bud Norris has historically stunk against left-handed batters (.315 batting average against last season).

Additional Plays: Javier Baez, Luis Valbuena

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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