MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 23rd Page Two

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-08-23 15:31:35

Houston at Cleveland

Houston					Cleveland
Collin McHugh		Vegas Moneyline			Danny Salazar		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.217	0.639	0.287	23.80%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.686	0.306	26.40%
SP vs. Right	0.189	0.598	0.269	30.50%	SP vs. Right	0.299	0.892	0.384	22.90%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Collin McHugh – McHugh entered the 2014 season sporting the following dreadful stat line through 47.1 innings of MLB work; 0-8 record, 8.94 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and just 5.32 K’s/9. To say he’s turned things around this season would be an understatement as he owns a 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.79 K’s/9 over 19 starts. He’s pitched brilliantly away from Minute Maid Park, posting a 1.82 road ERA and 10.27 K’s/9 in nine road starts. The Indians are MLB’s third best team in wOBA against right-handed pitching this year, so they represent a stiff test for McHugh. While i’m not completely sold on his success being sustainable, it’s hard to argue with the numbers. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7700 FD, $17300 DD, $9000 DK, $NA FF, $26800 SS, $17300 FTD

• Danny Salazar – After setting the league on fire during the second half of last season, Salazar has failed to live up to his high expectations thus far in 2014. However, he has turned things around since being reclass from AAA after the all-star break, posting a 3-2 record with a 3.67 ERA and racking up nearly a strikeout per inning. He’s been solid all season at Progressive Field and will square off against an Astros team that owns the leagues second highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching (23.1%). His inconsistencies make him a slightly risky play in cash games, but he has a tremendously high ceiling here making him ideal for GPP use. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7000 FD, $13700 DD, $7200 DK, $ FF, $21700 SS, $13700 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Jose Altuve – Righties have posted a .384 wOBA against Salazar this season and Altuve brings MLB’s best batting average (.334) into this game.

Additional Plays: Dexter Fowler, Jason Castro

Cleveland

• Michael Brantley – Brantley has posted a .942 OPS this season both at home and versus right-handed pitching, so he’s definitely a strong play today at Progressive Field against the right-handed Collin McHugh. He’s been stuck in a rut at the plate over the last week, but he’s proven to be too professional of a hitter to let it change his approach at the plate, so enjoy the temporary discount.

Additional Plays: Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis

St. Louis at Philadelphia

St. Louis					Philadelphia
Shelby Miller		Vegas Moneyline			David Buchanan		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.249	0.748	0.330	14.60%	SP vs. Left	0.222	0.573	0.258	11.80%
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.733	0.326	17.10%	SP vs. Right	0.286	0.836	0.363	18.60%
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shelby Miller – After an impressive rookie season last year, things haven’t gone quite as smoothly for Shelby Miller this year. He’ll enter tonight’s game sporting a 8-9 record, 4.25 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the season. He was sharp in three straight starts to open the second half but has since been knocked around in consecutive favorable matchups. This Phillies team defeated him in their only prior meeting this season, but they do rank #28th in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching. It appeared Miller had worked through his control problems, but with 6 BB in his last start and a league leading (among qualified starters) 4.12 BB/9, he’s a risk to deploy in cash games. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5500 FD, $11050 DD, $6300 DK, $NA FF, $16200 SS, $11050 FTD

• David Buchanan – Buchanan had a rude welcoming into the big leagues during his first few starts, but he’s pulled things together and has now posted a very respectable 4-4 record with a 3.26 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over his last eight starts. He has one of the best starts of his young career in his only other meeting with this St. Louis team, allowing just one run on four hits over 7.2 innings. This Cardinals offense has been sputtering all season which makes Buchanan an intriguing value play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6400 FD, $13450 DD, $7000 DK, $ FF, $17900 SS, $13450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Jon Jay – Jay had his 12 game hitting streak snapped last night, but he’s been absolutely on fire, posting a .420 batting average with 13 runs scored and 13 RBI’s during the month of August.

Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Kolten Wong, Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Utley leads this team in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.354 wOBA) and his patience at the plate will cause the Shelby Miller problems. He’s 4 for 6 off of Miller in the past and is an excellent option at 2B today.

Additional Plays: Ben Revere, Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz, Jimmy Rollins

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee

Pittsburgh					Milwaukee
Edinson Volquez		Vegas Moneyline			Wily Peralta		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.227	0.716	0.315	17.20%	SP vs. Left	0.298	0.811	0.356	17.50%
SP vs. Right	0.244	0.680	0.302	15.40%	SP vs. Right	0.205	0.595	0.272	17.70%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Edinson Volquez – Volquez looks to have turned the clock back to his heyday with the Cincinnati Reds back in 2008-2009 as he enters tonight’s game with a solid 10-7 record and 3.58 ERA. He’s been terrific in each of his last three starts, posting a 2-0 record to go along with a 1.40 ERA and .98 WHIP during that span. He owns a 2.79 ERA against Milwaukee in three starts against them this season but has been beaten up inside Miller Park in his career (5.09 ERA in eight starts). Rating = 5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $14450 DD, $6700 DK, $NA FF, $18100 SS, $14450 FTD

• Wily Peralta – Peralta will take the mound tonight against a Pittsburgh team who he’s mowed down twice already this season sporting an impressive 15-7 record and 3.27 ERA through 25 starts. Over the last calendar year, Peralta is rather quitely ranked 4th in MLB in wins as he’s posted an 18-9 record with a 3.33 ERA in 31 starts during that span. The Pirates have hit right-handed pitching quite well all season, but considering his success against them this year, Peralta is still a solid option. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $14200 DD, $7800 DK, $ FF, $23400 SS, $14200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Neil Walker – Lefties own a .356 wOBA against Peralta and Walker owns a .808 OPS against right-handed pitching from the left-side of the plate this season. He doubled and tripled last night and is 3 for 9 off of Peralta in their past meetings.

Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte

Milwaukee

• Carlos Gomez – Gomez has gone deep three times in the last five games and will square off against Edinson Volquez tonight who he’s already taken deep three times during his career. Gomez leads this Brewers team in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.377 wOBA) and is a notoriously streaky hitter, so jump on board now.

Additional Plays: Scooter Gennett, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun

Atlanta at Cincinnati

Atlanta					Cincinnati
Ervin Santana		Vegas Moneyline			Mike Leake		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.293	0.797	0.348	18.20%	SP vs. Left	0.296	0.822	0.360	13.60%
SP vs. Right	0.218	0.637	0.284	26.40%	SP vs. Right	0.233	0.650	0.287	22.30%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ervin Santana – Santana has come out of the gates this second half with a vengeance, recording a win in 6 of his seven second half starts and sporting a 2.98 ERA and recording a strikeout per inning in the process. He’s performed quite well under the lights this season, posting a 10-4 record and 3.38 ERA in 18 night starts. This Reds offense has been ice cold lately and ranks #29 in MLB in wOBA since the All-Star break (.274 wOBA). Santana defeated them in their only prior meeting this season and is in a nice spot to continue his second half success. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8900 FD, $18100 DD, $9700 DK, $NA FF, $26200 SS, $18100 FTD

• Mike Leake – While he doesn’t get much media attention, Leake has been very effective for the Reds. Since the beginning of last season he owns a 23-18 record and 3.50 ERA in 57 starts. He’ll take on a Braves team who ranks #26th in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.296 wOBA) and that ranks #4th in strikeout percentage (22.5%). He’s not the most exciting fantasy option on the board, but he’s a stong and reasonably priced secondary target on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $13450 DD, $8300 DK, $ FF, $22800 SS, $13450 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Justin Upton – After a triple and a homerun last night, Upton has extended his hitting streak to 13 games. He owns a 1.099 OPS during the month of August and has punished Leake in the past to the tune of 6 for 11 with a double and a homerun.

Additional Plays: Freddie Freeman, Evan Gattis, Jason Heyward, Chris Johnson

Cincinnati

Billy Hamilton – Lefties own a .348 wOBA off of Santana this season and Evan Gattis has only thrown out 23.1% of attempted base runners this season. If Hamilton gets on, than he can rack up fantasy points in a hurry.

Additional Plays: Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Jay Bruce

Kansas City at Texas

Kansas City					Texas
Jeremy Guthrie		Vegas Moneyline			Nick Tepesch		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT					RIGHT
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.294	0.830	0.365	15.60%	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.732	0.323	12.10%
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.631	0.284	15.10%	SP vs. Right	0.282	0.821	0.361	12.10%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Guthrie – With an xFIP of 4.40 or higher in every season since 2007, Guthrie is rarely a starting pitcher I’m comfortable targeting. However, if you’re ever going to give him a look than perhaps today is the day. He’ll take on MLB’s worst team, the Texas Rangers, on the road where he’s been decent this season (5-4 record with a 4.10 road ERA). His biggest weakness during his career has always been left-handed hitters, but luckily for him the Rangers don’t have too many intimidating bats from the left-side of the plate. I’m not taking the bait here but a quick look through his game log shows that he is quite capable of tossing a gem. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6400 FD, $10800 DD, $6800 DK, $NA FF, $19000 SS, $10800 FTD

• Nick Tepesch – After 15 starts this season, Tepesch brings a respectable 4.15 ERA into tonight’s home game against the Royals. He’s performed quite well at Rangers Ballpark this year, posting a 3.40 ERA in seven home starts. He’s also been on a bit of a roll lately, owning a 2.46 ERA and .97 WHIP over his last four starts. With all of that said, his 4.57 K’s/9 leaves a lot to be desired and that coupled with the fact that Kansas City strikes out the least often (by far) in MLB really limits his fantasy upside. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5300 FD, $9900 DD, $5200 DK, $ FF, $13600 SS, $9900 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Alex Gordon – Gordon leads this Kansas City team in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.358 wOBA) and is red-hot at the plate; homering twice in the last five games and posting a .949 OPS during the month of August.

Additional Plays: Josh Willingham, Billy Butler

Texas

Shin-Soo Choo – Jeremy Guthrie’s struggles against left-handed batters is well documented, so despite his disappointing season, Choo is still a nice option today. He’s already owns a homerun against Guthrie in their brief history.

Additional Plays: Adrian Beltre, Leonys Martin, Mike Carp

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3