MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 30th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
NY Yankees at Toronto
| NY Yankees | Toronto | ||||||||
| Michael Pineda | Vegas Moneyline | Drew Hutchison | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-114) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.213 | 0.649 | 0.280 | 21.80% | SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.834 | 0.362 | 18.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.197 | 0.471 | 0.209 | 16.10% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.620 | 0.276 | 23.80% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP  | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Michael Pineda – It looks like Pineda has found a more subtle place to hide his vasoline since returning from the DL as he’s only allowed four runs over three impressive starts. He reached 96 pitches in his last start so he should be good for a full workload today. With that said, he’ll be tasked with taking on a Toronto team who leads MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.336 wOBA) and third in wOBA at home (.338 wOBA). Pineda faced them at the Rogers Center in his first start of the season and pitched quite well (6 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 6 K’s) in a losing effort. He has some upside but the matchup prevents him from being a preferred cash game play. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $5700 FD, $14050 DD, $8800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14050 FTD
- Drew Hutchison – After being shallacked for 13 earned runs in two starts, Hutchison rebounded nicely in his last start holding the Rays to just one run on six hits (with seven K’s) in a losing effort on Sunday. He’ll take on the Yankees for the fifth time of the season, and things have not gone his way in the first four as he’s 1-3 with a 7.08 ERA over 20.1 innings. He has also been fairly terrible at the Rogers Center all season, posting a 5.88 ERA over ten home starts. He’s a better pitcher than the above numbers indicate, but there is still a lot of risk here today. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6100 FD, $11350 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $11350 FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – Ellsbury is on fire right now, he hit his fourth homer of the week last night and is now hitting .444 over the last week. Lefties own an .362 wOBA off of Hutchison this season and Ellsbury is 5 for 11 off of him in the past. He hurt his ankle last night, so make sure he’s in the lineup before deploying him into your lineups.
Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran
Toronto
Adam Lind – With a righty on the mound for the Yankees (Pineda), Lind instantly becomes one of the days better value plays at 1B. He owns a .414 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and owns an .879 OPS at the Rogers Center. He’s 4 for 11 with a double and a pair of homeruns off of Pineda in the past.
Additional Plays: Jose Reyes, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Melky Cabrera
Detroit at Chicago White Sox
| Detroit | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
| Max Scherzer | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Sale | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CWS (-105) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.692 | 0.307 | 24.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.150 | 0.361 | 0.171 | 37.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.213 | 0.602 | 0.268 | 34.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.597 | 0.267 | 27.70% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Max Scherzer – Scherzer has absolutely dominated this Chicago team this season, winning all four starts and posting a 0.96 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and racking up 31 strikeouts in 28 innings of work. His 28.4% strikeout rate is elite and he’ll take on a Chicago team that ranks near the top of the league in strikeout rate (28.1%). He’ll take the mound on the heels of back-to-back somewhat subpar outings, but his ceiling if through the roof and his success against the White Sox in the past makes him a nice option. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $11100 FD, $21950 DD, $12700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $21950 FTD
- Chris Sale – There isn’t much not to like about Sale as he sports a 10-3 record, 2.03 ERA and 0.93 WHIP on the season and has only allowed more than three earned runs in two of his 21 starts. His 12.06 K’s/9 leads all MLB Starters since the All-Star break and he mowed these Tigers down in their only other meeting this season (in a losing effort). The Tigers do own the leagues second highest wOBA against left-handed pitching, but Sale has practically become matchup proof at this point. Opposing Max Scherzer makes getting a win challenging but he’s still a top level option in all formats. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $10900 FD, $21150 DD, $13000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $21150 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit and Chicago White Sox
A battle between two of the games best pitchers is not a wise place to look for appealing bats. V-Mart has owned Chris Sale in the past and Jose Abreu possesses elite power, so those two guys are viable tournament options.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
| Chicago Cubs | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Felix Doubront | Vegas Moneyline | Justin Masterson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | STL (-105) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.321 | 0.816 | 0.364 | 18.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.317 | 0.924 | 0.405 | 14.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.866 | 0.376 | 14.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.706 | 0.323 | 26.30% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Felix Doubront – Doubront will be called up to start for the first time with his new team today against the Cardinals. He was rather terrible this season for the Red Sox, but obviously Theo Epstein still has faith in him. He has a long history of being burned by the longball and that’s the main reason why his xFIP has predominately been significantly lower than his ERA. He can rack up strikeouts at a nice clip and, luckily for him, he’ll square off against a St. Louis team that has hit the least homeruns in baseball this season. He’s a risky cash game play, but makes plenty of sense as a GPP target. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5600 FD, $6800 DD, $6000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $6800 FTD
- Justin Masterson – Masterson has been abysmal in four of his five starts since joining the St. Louis Cardinals, posting a 7.43 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in those starts. After making an All-Star appearance last season, he now sports an unslightly 5.88 ERA and 1.65 WHIP on the season. While his 2014 xFIP of 4.04 suggests he’s been a bit unlucky it still hard to trust him even against a Chicago Cubs team who ranks #28th in MLB in OPS versus right-handed pitching this season. It’s been reported that he’ll only pitching out of the stretch in this game, so it’s advisable to avoid him today while the Cardinals attempt to work through his struggles. Rating = 3.5
Salaries: $5800 FD, $9500 DD, $5800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $9500 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Chris Coghlan – Lefties have crushed Masterson to the tune of a .405 wOBA and Coghlan is in line for a nice afternoon as the Cubs leadoff man against the struggling right-hander.
Additional Plays: Anthony Rizzo (if back), Luis Valbuena, Javier Baez, Jorge Soler
St. Louis
Matt Holliday – Holliday extended his hitting streak to ten games last night and owns a solid .381 wOBA against left-handed pitching. Doubront has been prone to the long-ball and Holliday certainly has the power to make him pay if he makes any mistakes.
Additional Plays: Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta
Minnesota at Baltimore
| Minnesota | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Kyle Gibson | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Tillman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-175) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.702 | 0.313 | 10.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.660 | 0.296 | 16.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.637 | 0.287 | 18.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.219 | 0.660 | 0.293 | 15.80% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Gibson – Gibson has been blasted for five earned runs in back-to-back starts and now sports a rather robust 5.23 ERA since the All-Star break. He’ll have his hands full tonight as he heads into Camden Yards to take on an Orioles team that has hit far more homeruns than any other team in the league this season. Gibson has done a better job of keeping the ball down (and avoiding homeruns against him) this year, but he did serve up seven longballs in just 51 innings last season. With just 5.19 K’s/9 on the season, his limited upside prevents him from being a recommended option. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5600 FD, $10800 DD, $5700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $10800 FTD
- Chris Tillman – Dating back to the beginning of the 2012 season, Tillman has posted the following stat line in 76 starts for the Orioles; 36-15 record, 3.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 7.01 K’s/9. Despite those very impressive numbers, he still doesn’t seem to get much attention in the fantasy baseball community. He’s been fantastic at Camden Yards this season, posting a 2.54 ERA in 14 home starts. He’s also been dominant since the All-Star break, posting a 4-0 record and 1.86 ERA in eight second half starts. While he may pitch to contact more than many of us would like, the Orioles have won six consecutive games in which he’s started and he’s a solid play on sites that don’t weight strikeouts too heavily. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7400 FD, $14000 DD, $8700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14000 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Kennys Vargas – Vargas has continued his onslaught of right-handed pitching as he now owns a .414 wOBA against them during his rookie season.
Additional Plays: Joe Mauer, Danny Santana, Brian Dozier
Baltimore
Delmon Young – Young homered last night and now leads this Baltimore team in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.371 wOBA). He’s also hitting .306 this season at Camden Yards and makes for a nice value play likely hitting out of the #5 hole in this dangerous lineup.
Additional Plays: Chris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Alfredo Simon | Vegas Moneyline | Vance Worley | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-139) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.716 | 0.314 | 14.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.280 | 0.740 | 0.328 | 12.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.651 | 0.290 | 15.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.693 | 0.304 | 20.50% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Alfredo Simon – With the Reds having dropped the last seven games in which he started, Simon finally got back in the win column Sunday against Atlanta. In that game he allowed just one run on five hits over seven innings while striking out six. Despite his recent struggles, he still sports an impressive 13-8 record, 3.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and he’s escaped with rather easy victories in both of his prior starts against the Pittsburgh Pirates this season. However, the Pirates are, rather quitely, third in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching and lead MLB in wOBA since the All-Star break. He’s in play as a secondary play on multi-pitcher sites but I won’t be willing to pay up much for him. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $13000 DD, $5800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13000 FTD
- Vance Worley – Worley has allowed 30 hits over his last three starts, so a regression from his early season success appears to be in mid-swing. Despite allowing opposing batters to hit .331 off of him this month, he’s managed to pitch out of trouble with regularity as his August ERA is just 4.11. All is not lost however, as he’ll take on a Cincinnati offense that owns the leagues worst wOBA since the All-Star break. With that said, several of these Cincinnati batters have had his number in the past and I don’t think his recent struggles are a fluke, so i’ll likely be staying away. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6300 FD, $14300 DD, $7100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14300 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Billy Hamilton – Hamilton extended his hitting streak to three games last night and has now stolen four bases over the last three games. He has flourished on the road this season where he owns a .301 batting average. He appears to be heating back up and can use his speed to rack up fantasy points in a hurry.
Additional Plays: Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen – McCutchen’s .416 wOBA versus right-handed pitching leads all of MLB this season. He has crushed the ball all season in front of the home fans at PNC Park, posting a 1.004 home OPS. He sports rather drastic day vs night splits and luckily for him this game will be played under the lights and he owns a 1.031 OPS at night this year. With Alfredo Simon struggling recently, Cutch is a top tier option in the outfield.
Additional Plays: Ike Davis, Russell Martin, Josh Harrison, Starling Marte
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