MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 6 - Page Three

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-06-07 01:25:49

LA Angels at NY Yankees – 7:15 PM EST

LA Angels					NY Yankees
			Garrett Richards					Adam Warren
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA -110					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.188	0.511	0.234	0.233	SP vs. Left	0.193	0.554	0.248	0.217
SP vs. Right	0.219	0.58	0.268	0.23	SP vs. Right	0.245	0.704	0.314	0.193
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Garrett Richards

Salaries: $8600 FD, $8800 DK

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 19)

I continue to think that we are going to see a Richards performance like the ones he gave us last year, but it hasn’t happened. He has not been bad, as he sports a low ERA (3.26) and a decent strikeout rate (19.3%). The dominant performance is coming, but maybe not tonight against a Yankees squad that have a team wOBA of .319 against righties. I like Richards as a second starter tonight and a tournament play, but there are better cash game plays out there. Rating = 7

Adam Warren

Salaries: $6700 FD, $5200 DK

Los Angeles Angels vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 13)

Warren has been solid this year and has done a great job of avoiding any blowups in his ten starts this season. He has a 4.36 xFIP on the year and a low 15.4% strikeout rate. Warren gets a solid matchup against the Angels who have really struggled against right-handed pitching this year (wOBA of .295). With that said, his upside is limited and makes for only a second starter tonight. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.285 — OBP: 0.377

Analysis: Trout will always do Trout-like things it seems. He will do them in any type of matchup and today’s is not a bad one as he faces Warren who has given up the long ball a bit so far this year (seven in ten starts). All Trout has done recently is hit home runs as he has had three long balls in his last six games. He is, as always, a great play tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.136 — OBP: 0.304

NY Yankees

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Mark Teixeira
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.346 — OBP: 0.338

Brian McCann
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.242 — OBP: 0.331

Detroit at Chicago White Sox – 7:15 PM EST

Detroit					Chicago White Sox
			David Price					John Danks
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -163					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.647	0.288	0.229	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.708	0.317	0.11
SP vs. Right	0.234	0.652	0.286	0.264	SP vs. Right	0.273	0.832	0.363	0.17
Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price

Salaries: $11000 FD, $10200 DK

Chicago White Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.237 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 14)

Price has now had four quality starts in a row and has a solid 3.15 ERA backed up by a 3.94 xFIP. Price is always a starter that will go deep into his starts, has strikeout potential (20.1%) and consistently keeps his team in line for a win. Price shut down this White Sox squad earlier and should get plenty of run support against Danks tonight. He is a solid favorite at –161 and makes for a great play if you want to be contrarian and go against the masses with Kershaw and Felix tonight. Rating = 8

John Danks

Salaries: $6200 FD, $5700 DK

Detroit Tigers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 23.6% (Rank: 5)

Danks hurt a lot of us in his last start against Houston when he threw a complete game and gave up no runs. He still allowed eleven base runners in that game and is a massive underdog tonight. Danks has a 4.57 xFIP on the year and has a tough matchup against some power righties of the Tigers who hold a team wOBA of .325 this year against lefties. Danks should be avoided tonight in all formats. Rating = 3.5

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.431 — ISO: 0.263 — OBP: 0.460

Analysis: Cabrera is an easy choice as one of the top first basemen of the day. He faces Danks who is allowing a wOBA of .402 to righties on the year and Cabrera has always mashed left-handed pitching. I expect a big number being put up on Danks today, which puts all the righties on the Tigers in play.

Secondary Plays:

Ian Kinsler
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.260 — ISO: 0.060 — OBP: 0.291

J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.075 — OBP: 0.375

Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.271 — ISO: 0.233 — OBP: 0.217

Rajai Davis
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.353

Chicago White Sox

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Tampa Bay at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay					Seattle
			Alex Colome					Felix Hernandez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA -166					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.263	0.731	0.324	0.151	SP vs. Left	0.197	0.526	0.237	0.249
SP vs. Right	0.242	0.618	0.273	0.168	SP vs. Right	0.196	0.581	0.259	0.298
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TB vs R		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Colome

Salaries: $6200 FD, $6100 DK

Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 3)

Colome has pitched all right at times this season, but has been too inconsistent to be an option in any formats at this point. He recently allowed three home runs in his last start and had a start earlier this year where he allowed four in one game. He doesn’t pitch deep enough into his starts nor does he strikeout enough batters (17.5%) to be played tonight against the King. Rating = 4.5

Felix Hernandez

Salaries: $11800 FD, $11500 DK

Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 8)

King Felix had his worst start since 2013 against the Yankees as he allowed seven earned runs in only 4.2 innings. This was as many earned runs as he allowed in his previous four starts combined and thankfully for him, he gets a great matchup against the Rays to bounce back in. The Rays have a team wOBA of .299, which is good for 22nd in the league. I expect a strong start for Felix who has an elite 2.82 xFIP and 25.8% strikeout rate. He makes a top cash and tournament play tonight. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

No Secondary Plays

Seattle

Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.236 — OBP: 0.337

Analysis: Cruz has been one of the best acquisitions this year as he has carried this Mariners offense to the tune of 18 home runs and 39 runs batted in already. He is crushing all types of pitching and now gets Colome who has allowed a wOBA of .368 to right-handed bats.

Secondary Plays:

Kyle Seager
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.172 — OBP: 0.327

Robinson Cano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.088 — OBP: 0.305

NY Mets at Arizona – 10:10 PM EST

NY Mets					Arizona
			Bartolo Colon					Chase Anderson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI -124					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.270	0.707	0.309	0.175	SP vs. Left	0.242	0.744	0.327	0.19
SP vs. Right	0.268	0.748	0.326	0.193	SP vs. Right	0.264	0.718	0.315	0.213
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Bartolo Colon

Salaries: $7800 FD, $6900 DK

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 17)

Colon had been slipping a bit over his last few starts as he allowed 20 earned runs in four starts, but bounced back a bit in his last start going seven innings and allowing three earned runs. His xFIP of 3.63 has been solid this year, but the park factors tonight along with the high total make Colon a very tough option tonight in any format. Rating = 5

Chase Anderson

Salaries: $6600 FD, $5500 DK

New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 11)

Chase is coming off his worst outing of the season as he allowed six earned runs in five innings against the Brewers. Anderson has had a lot of success prior to this outing and his low walk rate (5.7%) and lack of home runs allowed (0.30 HR/9) has led to an ERA of 3.26 on the year. He has a decent matchup against the Mets today, yet is pitching at Chase Field in a game with a total of 9. He makes a tournament play only tonight and a very risky one at that. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Lucas Duda
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.418 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.439

Analysis: With Daniel Murphy out of the lineup now, Duda easily makes for the top lay on the Mets squad tonight. He has a wOBA of .418 against righties on the season and gets a great matchup against Chase Anderson who has allowed a wOBA of .339 to lefties. This game is being played in a hitter friendly park that just boosts the upside of Duda in this game.

Secondary Plays:

Curtis Granderson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.366

Ruben Tejada
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.119 — OBP: 0.394

Arizona

David Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.241 — OBP: 0.344

Analysis: Peralta should be in the lineup tonight as the D’backs are facing a right-handed pitcher. Against righties, Peralta usually bats in the fifth spot and has a solid wOBA of .365 against righties. If Colon struggles tonight, this Diamondbacks squad could put up a big time number on the board and the lefties are in play as Colon has allowed a wOBA of .357 to them.

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.479 — ISO: 0.336 — OBP: 0.484

Ender Inciarte
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.123 — OBP: 0.318

A.J Pollock
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.171 — OBP: 0.357

St. Louis at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

St. Louis					LA Dodgers
			Jaime Garcia					Clayton Kershaw
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD -189					6
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.321	0.913	0.401	0.228	SP vs. Left	0.208	0.541	0.242	0.322
SP vs. Right	0.217	0.665	0.293	0.198	SP vs. Right	0.205	0.562	0.25	0.315
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jaime Garcia

Salaries: $7100 FD, $7700 DK

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 15)

Garcia has been solid in his first three starts of the year as he has allowed six earned runs in 20 innings since returning from the DL. His strikeout rate has been a bit down from his 18.8% career rate, but I would expect it to be back up around there soon enough. He has a tough matchup tonight with Kershaw on the mound, which does limit his upside a bit. Garcia makes a decent contrarian tournament play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6.5

Clayton Kershaw

Salaries: $11700 FD, $12400 DK

St. Louis Cardinals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 23.0% (Rank: 8)

Kershaw went into Coors and showed us why he is an elite arm in the league as he allowed only two earned runs and struck out seven batters. His high 3.73 ERA for him shows some bad luck as his xFIP sits at a very low 2.18 this year. He has an average matchup against a lefty heavy Cardinals squad who have a .313 team wOBA against lefties and a high 23% strikeout rate. Picking between Kershaw and Felix is tough tonight, and both are elite options and huge favorites on the slate. Both can be used in any format if you can fit the salary. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

No Secondary Plays

LA Dodgers

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Howie Kendrick
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.077 — OBP: 0.349

Alex Guerrero
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.267 — OBP: 0.281

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