MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 2 - Page Three
Cincinnati at Atlanta
| Cincinnati | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Jason Marquis |  | Eric Stults | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ATL (-108) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.284 | 0.78 | 0.342 | 0.122 | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.273 | 0.778 | 0.341 | 0.154 | ||||
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs L | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jason Marquis
Salaries: $6300 FD, $5100 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.54 — Strikeout Rate: 23.8% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.8%
2014: xFIP: 4.81 — Strikeout Rate: 18.2% — Walk Rate: 6.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.3%
Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 27)
Analysis: At this point in his career, Marquis is a guy that the Reds hope can make it into the sixth inning and limit the opponent to three or fewer runs. His strikeout rate (23.8%) is going to come down soon enough (career rate of 13.8%), which will basically take him out of fantasy consideration altogether. The Braves have surprised a bit to start the season as they are ranked 11th in team wOBA against righties (.311) and are striking out at a very low rate (16.7%). Rating = 5
Eric Stults
Salaries: $6100 FD, $5700 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.38 — Strikeout Rate: 14.4% — Walk Rate: 6.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.7%
2014: xFIP: 4.17 — Strikeout Rate: 14.6% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 25.8% (Rank: 5)
Analysis: Stults is a pitcher who will never be a high volume strikeout pitcher (14.7% career rate) and a guy who has been crushed by righties over the last two seasons. When pitching in San Diego does not help your numbers, you know you are a below average pitcher and that is what Stults is. Even in a solid matchup against a lefty-heavy Reds squad, Stults is not in play. Rating = 4.5
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Todd Frazier
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: 0.471— OBP: 0.278
Analysis: Frazier versus left-handed pitching has been a recipe for success so far this year. He has a ridiculous .471 ISO against lefties and a wOBA of .414. Stults is not a good pitcher and should have a very difficult time getting Frazier out in this contest.
Secondary Plays:
Billy Hamilton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.278 — OBP: 0.333
Brandon Phillips
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.059 — OBP: 0.353
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.238 — OBP: 0.371
Analysis: Freeman makes a great play at the first base position tonight as his salary is playable and he has a great matchup against Marquis. Freeman has a wOBA of .396 against righties and should be in line for a decent game against the aging pitcher.
Secondary Plays:
A.J. Pierzynski
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.462 — ISO: 0.267 — OBP: 0.420
Nick Markakis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.054 — OBP: 0.464
Washington at NY Mets
| Washington | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Gio Gonzalez |  | Jonathon Niese | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-127) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.628 | 0.284 | 0.27 | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.653 | 0.293 | 0.241 | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | WAS vs L | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Gio Gonzalez
Salaries: $8500 FD, $9000 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.59 — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% — Walk Rate: 8.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 58.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.39 — Strikeout Rate: 24.8% — Walk Rate: 10.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.8%
New York Mets vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 25)
Analysis: Gio Gonzalez has really struggled out of the gates in 2015. He has allowed 13 earned runs in four starts and has not been able to pitch more than 6.1 innings in any of his starts. His xFIP of 3.59 shows he should improve soon enough and his strikeouts are still there (20.8%). He is a small favorite tonight in a game with a low total and may be under-owned, but Gio has a bit of risk attached tonight. Rating = 6.5
Jonathon Niese
Salaries: $7,700 FD, $7200 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.92 — Strikeout Rate: 13.0% — Walk Rate: 8.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 61.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.63 — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% — Walk Rate: 5.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.7%
Washington Nationals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 15)
Analysis: Niese is coming off his worst performance of the year as he allowed four earned runs in a tough matchup at Yankee Stadium. In his other three starts this year, he has not allowed more than one earned run, but has allowed at least nine base runners in each. He has a tough matchup against the Nationals who were one of the best teams in 2014 at hitting left-handed pitching. His low strikeout rate and matchup put him in only a second starter role tonight. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Washington
None
Secondary Plays:
Jayson Werth
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.237 — ISO: 0.077 — OBP: 0.267
Ian Desmond
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.184 — ISO: 0.176 — OBP: 0.158
Both of these guys have big upside against lefties, but have struggled in this spot to start the year. They are borderline elite options against Niese, but the low total worries me that this could be a pitchers’ duel tonight.
NY Mets
Michael Cuddyer
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.409
Analysis: Cuddyer has four hits in his last three games including two home runs. He has a great R/L matchup tonight against Gio since Cuddyer has been crushing lefties to start the year (.392 wOBA).
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.489 — ISO: 0.136 — OBP: 0.520
Oakland at Texas
| Oakland | Texas | ||||||||
 | Drew Pomeranz |  | Nick Martinez | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| OAK (-128) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.663 | 0.300 | 0.274 | SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 0.832 | 0.366 | 0.121 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.195 | 0.563 | 0.259 | 0.218 | SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.746 | 0.326 | 0.134 |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Drew Pomeranz
Salaries: $6100 FD, $5400 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.54 — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% — Walk Rate: 5.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.65 — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% — Walk Rate: 9.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.7%
Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 17)
Analysis: Pomeranz comes into this matchup as a slight favorite, but has to pitch in a hitter friendly environment in Texas. Pomeranz has been just average so far this year allowing at least three earned runs over his last three starts. He has some solid strikeout numbers, but I will be avoiding him in a tough park today. Rating = 5
Nick Martinez
Salaries: $7000 FD, $5300 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.99. — Strikeout Rate: 10.5% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.5%
2014: xFIP: 5.22 — Strikeout Rate: 12.6% — Walk Rate: 9.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 32.9%
Oakland A’s vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.355 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 26)
Analysis: Martinez is not someone you want to target for fantasy purposes and is especially out of the discussion against an A’s offense that is ranked sixth in team wOBA against righties and that strikes out at a very low rate. He is an underdog tonight in a game with an 8 total and should be avoided. Rating = 3.5
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Steven Vogt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.459 — ISO: 0.283— OBP: 0.443
Analysis: Vogt has been on a lot of people’s lineups to start the season when he is facing right-handed pitching, and for good reason. He is usually slotted in the third spot in the lineup, has a OPS of 1.093, and is hitting in an offense that has put up some good numbers. He makes for a great catcher option tonight.
Secondary Plays:
Josh Reddick
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.449 — ISO: 0.208— OBP: 0.450
Marcus Semien
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.197— OBP: 0.300
Billy Butler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.141— OBP: 0.313
Texas
Adrian Beltre
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.303
Analysis: Beltre has not been the same player to start the season that he has been over the last few years, but this matchup is tough to ignore. Add this to the fact that he is cheaply priced across the industry and you have a solid play at the third base position tonight.
Secondary Plays:
Elvis Andrus
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.147 — OBP: 0.361
Robinson Chirinos
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.567 — ISO: 0.571 — OBP: 0.438
Colorado at San Diego
| Colorado | San Diego | ||||||||
 | Jorge De La Rosa |  | Brandon Morrow | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SDP (-140) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.194 | 0.532 | 0.241 | 0.241 | SP vs. Left | 0.299 | 0.948 | 0.412 | 0.192 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.76 | 0.336 | 0.163 | SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.708 | 0.318 | 0.214 |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | SD BvP | SD vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jorge De La Rosa
Salaries: $6000 FD, $6600 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.95 — Strikeout Rate: 26.3% — Walk Rate: 7.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.95 — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% — Walk Rate: 7.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.6%
San Diego Padres vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.353 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: De La Rosa was lit up in his first start, but bounced back a bit in his second while only allowing two earned runs at Coors to the Giants. He now gets a big boost while pitching in San Diego, but the Padres offense has been playing very well against lefties so far this season (.353 wOBA). Avoid him tonight. Rating = 3.5
Brandon Morrow
Salaries: $6900 FD, $6900 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.49 — Strikeout Rate: 18.8% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.7%
2014: xFIP: 4.06 — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% — Walk Rate: 12.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.5%
Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.335 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 17.7% (Rank: 24)
Analysis: Morrow has some solid advanced numbers to start his 2015 campaign with an xFIP of 3.49 and a strikeout rate close to 20%. He was hit hard against this Rockies squad two starts ago, but we can chalk that up to the Coors factor. This Rockies team is not the same offense away from home and Morrow could be looked at as a solid tournament play tonight for a decent price. Rating = 6.5
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
None
Secondary Plays:
Corey Dickerson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: 0.299 — OBP: 0.352
Troy Tulowitzki
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.183 — OBP: 0.284
Nolan Arenado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.405 — ISO: 0.288 — OBP: 0.343
San Diego
Matt Kemp
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.488 — ISO: 0.200 — OBP: 0.476
Analysis: The addition of Kemp has been a tremendous boost to a once-terrible Padres’ offense. He is mashing lefties to start the year for a wOBA close to .500 and an OPS of 1.126. His matchup tonight is ideal against De La Rosa who has struggled mightily to start the season. The rule of not playing Padres at home is going to be broken a lot this year and Kemp should make a solid play tonight.
Secondary Plays:
Justin Upton
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.282 — ISO: 0.071 — OBP: 0.286
Derek Norris
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.651 — ISO: 0.278 — OBP: 0.611
Arizona at LA Dodgers
| Arizona | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | Jeremy Hellickson |  | Scott Baker | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD (-150) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.211 | 0.584 | 0.261 | 0.219 | SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.809 | 0.349 | 0.209 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.353 | 0.966 | 0.423 | 0.162 | SP vs. Right | 0.261 | 0.771 | 0.329 | 0.119 |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | LA BvP | LA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeremy Hellickson
Salaries: $5900 FD, $6200 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.27 — Strikeout Rate: 15.4% — Walk Rate: 7.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.9%
2014: xFIP: 4.13 — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% — Walk Rate: 7.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.377 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Hellickson has not been good to start the year (5.24 ERA/4.27 xFIP) and now has to face the best offense against right-handed pitching. He has nothing positive going for him tonight and should be avoided. Rating = 3.5
Scott Baker
Salaries: $5800 FD, $5000 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.21 — Strikeout Rate: 23.1% — Walk Rate: 7.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 33.3%
2014: xFIP: 4.37 — Strikeout Rate: 26.2% — Walk Rate: 1.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 25.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Baker is the favorite in tonight’s matchup, but I think that is mainly due to the fact that Hellickson is on the mound against him and the Dodgers offense has been rolling. Baker pitched well in his first start, but is not someone I could trust tonight even though he should be in line for the win. Rating = 4.5
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
Paul Goldschmidt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: 0.164 — OBP: 0.446
Analysis: Goldy is a premier play anytime he takes the field. He has shown the ability to score in so many different ways. He hits for a high average, big-time power, and has stolen a five bases this year as well. He his hot as well right now with eleven hits over his last four games. He has a solid matchup against Baker who allowed a WOBA of .329 to righties last year.
Secondary Plays:
David Peralta
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.293 — OBP: 0.340
Yasmany Tomas
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.050 — OBP: 0.478
LA Dodgers
Joc Pederson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.473 — ISO: 0.377 — OBP: 0.465
Analysis: The hype is real so far for Pederson and he is coming off a grand slam last night and has three home runs in his last four games. Ride the young player while he is hot and hitting at the top of this dangerous lineup tonight.
Secondary Plays:
Adrian Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.525 — ISO: 0.437 — OBP: 0.421
Jimmy Rollins
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.169 — OBP: 0.301
Andre Ethier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.479 — ISO: 0.372 — OBP: 0.442