MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 2 - Page Two
Toronto at Cleveland
| Toronto | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Aaron Sanchez |  | Corey Kluber | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-149) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.146 | 0.469 | 0.223 | 0.217 | SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.688 | 0.304 | 0.282 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.114 | 0.306 | 0.149 | 0.227 | SP vs. Right | 0.22 | 0.553 | 0.246 | 0.283 |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Aaron Sanchez
Salaries: $6200 FD, $5900 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.57 — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% — Walk Rate: 16.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.00 — Strikeout Rate: 22.3% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 65.9%
Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 25)
Analysis: The move out of the bullpen into the starting rotation has been a bit of a problem so far for Sanchez this year. He has not gone more than 5.2 innings in any of his starts this year and has a 4.57 xFIP. He has had to face some tough divisional foes in his first four starts in some very hitter friendly environments though. His struggles so far this season make him an easy avoid today against an Indians lineup that can put up a number of runs in a hurry as shown last night. Rating = 4
Corey Kluber
Salaries: $9500 FD, $9400 DK
2015: xFIP: 2.80 — Strikeout Rate: 25.5% — Walk Rate: 5.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.9%
2014: xFIP: 2.57 — Strikeout Rate: 28.3% — Walk Rate: 5.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Kluber has had two rough starts in a row where he has allowed at least four earned runs and struck out six or fewer batters. He will look to rebound in another tough matchup against the Blue Jays who have a wOBA of .318 against righties. When he is on his game, Kluber is one of the best pitchers in the game as he can pitch deep in the game while racking up strikeouts at an elite 24.9 career rate. I expect Kluber to bounce back and he makes a great play as his ownership may be down due to his recent game log and the matchup. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
None
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.260 — OBP: 0.345
Devon Travis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.206 — OBP: 0.386
Cleveland
Michael Brantley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.108 — OBP: 0.395
Analysis: Brantley has been crushing the ball recently. He has 17 hits over his last 10 games, including four extra base hits and he hit his first home run of the season last night. The Indians should put up a few runs today against the young Sanchez and Brantley should be in line to drive a few home.
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Santana
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.396
Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.111 — OBP: 0.360
Philadelphia at Miami
| Philadelphia | Miami | ||||||||
 | Cole Hamels |  | Dan Haren | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-117) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.211 | 0.636 | 0.291 | 0.195 | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.665 | 0.29 | 0.233 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.641 | 0.285 | 0.25 | SP vs. Right | 0.273 | 0.771 | 0.333 | 0.14 |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Cole Hamels
Salaries: $9700 FD, $10000 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.82 — Strikeout Rate: 25.0% — Walk Rate: 12.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.21 — Strikeout Rate: 23.9% — Walk Rate: 7.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.4%
Miami Marlins vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Hamels has had two games where he has struggled, but has been great in the other three starts he has made this year. Overall, Hamels holds a xFIP of 3.82 and a very high strikeout rate of 25.0. He will be pitching against a Marlins team that has a wOBA of .319 to left-handed pitchers, but a team that he blanked over six innings of work just under two weeks ago. Hamels makes a solid start today, but is not the top on my list for the afternoon slate. Rating = 7.5
Dan Haren
Salaries: $7600 FD, $6900 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.52 — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% — Walk Rate: 8.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.70 — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% — Walk Rate: 4.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.5%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.252 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Haren has been decent so far this season overall. His advanced numbers show a bit of concern as his xFIP is at 4.52 and he is walking batters at a 8.7% rate. Haren has also had a problem with the long ball with six home runs allowed over his first 24 innings (36.4% GB Rate) and the lack of strikeouts takes him out of cash game consideration. He does, however have a great matchup against the Phillies who are last in the league in wOBA against righties. Due to the matchup, he makes for a tournament play today. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Ryan Howard
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.268 — OBP: 0.262
Analysis: Clearly a GPP play only today, Howard is a big time boom or bust player. He is hitting under .200 on the season, but he does have three home runs over his last seven games. He does have a favorable matchup against Haren who has given up a .372 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate this year.
Secondary Plays:
Cody Asche
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.117— OBP: 0.297
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.300 — OBP: 0.462
Analysis: Stanton versus a lefty is a bit unfair for any pitcher that takes the mound against him. He has crushed them again this year for a wOBA of .451 and makes top option in the outfield even with the tough matchup against Hamels.
Secondary Plays:
Marcell Ozuna
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.417
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Chris Archer |  | Miguel Gonzalez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-143) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.624 | 0.283 | 0.212 | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.772 | 0.34 | 0.15 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.685 | 0.307 | 0.208 | SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.724 | 0.321 | 0.185 |
| Batter Splits | TB BvP | TB vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Archer
Salaries: $8900 FD, $8600 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.40 — Strikeout Rate: 30.6% — Walk Rate: 5.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 59.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.70 — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.363 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 22.9% (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Archer has been absolutely on fire this year. After allowing three earned runs in his Opening Day start to the Orioles, all he has done is rattled off 26.2 straight innings of zero earned run allowed ball. He has backed this up with big time strikeout numbers (30.6%) and just keeping runners off the basepaths (12 hits in last four starts). His 2.40 xFIP shows some support for a continued solid run for the young righty. He does face a tough Baltimore offense today, which bumps his value down a bit, but he is definitely in play tonight. Rating = 8
Miguel Gonzalez
Salaries: $7600 FD, $9000 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.06 — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% — Walk Rate: 11.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.3%
2014: xFIP: 4.46 — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 11)
Analysis: Gonzalez is coming off his worst performance of the year so far as he allowed four earned runs against the Red Sox in six innings of work. He has an xFIP of 4.06 and a pretty solid strikeout rate of 21% so far this year. The walks are a bit concerning (11%) and the long ball has always been a slight problem for him in his short career. He has an average matchup against the Rays today who are in the middle of the pack in both wOBA against righties (14th ranked) and strikeout rate (11th). I will not be having too much exposure to Gonzalez today. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.161 — OBP: 0.329
Analysis: Longoria has been seeing the ball well recently. He has eleven hits over his last six games and has a good matchup against Gonzalez who has allowed a wOBA of .357 to right-handed batters.
Secondary Plays:
Asdrubal Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.104 — OBP: 0.324
Baltimore
None
Secondary Plays:
Jimmy Paredes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.479 — ISO: 0.368 — OBP: 0.385
Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.255 — OBP: 0.297
Seattle at Houston
| Seattle | Houston | ||||||||
 | Taijuan Walker |  | Collin McHugh | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-145) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.729 | 0.333 | 0.18 | SP vs. Left | 0.218 | 0.609 | 0.272 | 0.217 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.179 | 0.501 | 0.229 | 0.267 | SP vs. Right | 0.185 | 0.556 | 0.252 | 0.307 |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Taijuan Walker
Salaries: $7700 FD, $7100 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.80 — Strikeout Rate: 20.0% — Walk Rate: 11.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.88 — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% — Walk Rate: 11.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.6%
Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.326 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 24.4% (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Walker had an awful start to the 2015 season giving up 14 earned runs in his first two starts. He has bounced back nicely in his last two starts allowing only one earned run over 12.1 innings. He has a solid matchup against the Astros who lead the league in strikeout rate at a 24.4% clip. He makes a decent tournament play, but even with the great matchup, I will not be having a ton of exposure Rating = 5
Collin McHugh
Salaries: $8400 FD, $7900 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.79 — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% — Walk Rate: 4.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.11 — Strikeout Rate: 25.4% — Walk Rate: 6.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.1%
Seattle Mariners vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 16)
Analysis: McHugh is coming off a great 2014 season that saw him improve in the majority of the advanced pitching categories and it has continued into this season. He has an xFIP of 2.79 on the year and his strike rate of 23% is hovering around a similar point from last years. The matchup today is solid against a Mariners squad who has a wOBA of just .291 against righties. He is a decent favorite today and makes a good second starter on sites where his price is cheap. Rating = 7
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
None
Secondary Plays:
Robinson Cano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.136 — OBP: 0.366
Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.270 — OBP: 0.312
Houston
Luis Valbuena
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.314
Analysis: Valbuena is never going to be a high average guy, but if he can continue to hit for power against right-handed pitching, he is in play. He should be hitting high up in the order against a pitcher in Walker who has allowed a wOBA of .356 to lefties.
Secondary Plays:
Colby Rasmus
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.314 — OBP: 0.309
Detroit at Kansas City
| Detroit | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | David Price |  | Edinson Volquez | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET (-123) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.657 | 0.292 | 0.236 | SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.728 | 0.321 | 0.174 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.644 | 0.283 | 0.28 | SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.634 | 0.286 | 0.172 |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | KC BvP | KC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
David Price
Salaries: $10900 FD, $10200 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.80— Strikeout Rate: 22.0% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.9%
2014: xFIP: 2.76 — Strikeout Rate: 26.9% — Walk Rate: 3.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.2%
Kansas City Royals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.352 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 13.6% (Rank: 30)
Analysis: Price did not have the best outing against the Twins, but was able to look much better than his 2.1 inning, eight-run blow up to the Yankees two starts ago. Outside of that start, Price has only allowed four earned runs in his other four starts this year. Price is always an innings eater that strikes batters out at a high rate (22% this year). He has the worst matchup on the board tonight against the Royals who continue to strike out at an extremely low rate (13.6%) and are one of the best offenses in baseball. This drops his upside a bit tonight. Rating = 7.5
Edinson Volquez
Salaries: $8400 FD, $6800 DK
Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.43 — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% — Walk Rate: 4.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.8%
2014: xFIP: 4.20 — Strikeout Rate: 17.3% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.4%
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.346 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 17)
Analysis: Usually moving to the AL would not improve a pitcher’s statistics from one season to the next. This has not been the case for Volquez as he has had the benefit of moving to pitcher friendly Kansas City and the signing has really paid off. His K rate is up, his walk rate is down and his xFIP sits at a very solid, 3.43. Like Price, Volquez faces a tough offense tonight, which limits his value. However, his price puts him into tournament consideration as a second pitcher. Rating = 6.5
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.467 — ISO: 0.262 — OBP: 0.468
Analysis: Miggy continues to do Miggy type things. He is crushing all types of pitching and has a wOBA of .467 against RH pitching this year. Miggy has been hot over the last seven days, hitting three of his five home runs over that time along with going 8/21.
Secondary Plays:
Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.342
Anthony Gose
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: .149 — OBP: 0.347
Kansas City
None
Secondary Plays:
Lorenzo Cain
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.470 — ISO: 205 — OBP: 0.489
Mike Moustakas
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.163 — OBP: 0.408