MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 2nd

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-05-05 18:24:37

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

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NY Yankees at Boston

NY Yankees					Boston
			Nathan Eovaldi					Wade Miley
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS (-113)					9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.293	0.768	0.336	16.0%	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.727	0.326	19.80%
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.688	0.304	17.4%	SP vs. Right	0.264	0.751	0.331	21.50%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Eovaldi

Salaries: $7600 FD, $6200 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.21 — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% — Walk Rate: 5.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.78 — Strikeout Rate: 16.6% — Walk Rate: 5.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.8%

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 16.0% (Rank: 30)

Analysis: Eovaldi has transitioned to the American League this year and it he has actually improved on his 2014 statistics. He currently holds an xFIP of 3.21 on the season and has a strikeout rate of 20.6%. He does, however, face a Boston Red Sox team that is ninth in the league in team wOBA against righties (.320) and has the lowest strikeout rate at 16%. The total is huge here at nine and a half and Eovaldi should be avoided. Rating = 4

Wade Miley

Salaries: $6700 FD, $5400 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.88 — Strikeout Rate: 13.5% — Walk Rate: 14.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.50 — Strikeout Rate: 21.1% — Walk Rate: 8.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.1%

New York Yankees vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.362 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 16)

Analysis: Miley has also made the transition to the AL, but his move has not been as smooth as Eovaldi’s. Miley has yet to make it into the sixth inning in any of his four starts and has given up 15 earned runs in only 15.2 innings pitched. His advanced statistics do not show a whole lot of positives as his xFIP sits at 5.88 and he has been walking batters at a BB/9 of 6.32. Miley has a tough matchup today against the Yankees who have a wOBA of .362 against lefties. He is an easy avoid today. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.464 — ISO: 0.040 — OBP: 0.548

Analysis: Ellsbury has just been too hot to ignore recently. He has nine hits in his last five games and has been crushing left-handed pitching so far this year. Miley has also allowed a wOBA of .420 to lefties in his few starts making Ellsbury a great play that may not have huge ownership levels due to the L/L matchup.

Secondary Plays:

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.292 — OBP: 0.367

Mark Teixeira
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.304 — OBP: 0.367

Boston

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.255 — OBP: 0.412

Analysis: Ortiz is a great play today at the first base position. Even though he is only hitting .233 so far this year, he continues to hit well against right-handed pitchers. He has a wOBA this year of .406 against righties and has a great matchup against Eovaldi who is allowing lefties to a wOBA of .425.

Secondary Plays:

Hanley Ramirez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.269 — OBP: 0.278

Pablo Sandoval
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.463 — ISO: 0.172 — OBP: 0.485

Dustin Pedroia
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.127 — OBP: 0.363

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota

Chicago White Sox					Minnesota
			Hector Noesi					Ricky Nolasco
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN (-105)					9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.238	0.728	0.320	15.8%	SP vs. Left	0.329	0.906	0.396	13.30%
SP vs. Right	0.304	0.834	0.367	18.2%	SP vs. Right	0.294	0.816	0.355	19.90%
Batter Splits	CWS BvP		CWS vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Noesi

Salaries: $6400 FD, $5600 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.29 — Strikeout Rate: 23.4% — Walk Rate: 14.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 32.1%
2014: xFIP: 4.29 — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.0%

Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.275 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 23.0% (Rank: 3)

Analysis: Noesi’s numbers have actually regressed from his last season numbers where he was not a solid fantasy play. That continues this year even in a great matchup against the Twins who have a high strikeout rate and low wOBA against righties. Regardless of this stat, Noesi is not in play today. Rating = 4

Ricky Nolasco

Salaries: $5200 FD, $5800 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 8.49 — Strikeout Rate: 10.5% — Walk Rate: 21.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.97 — Strikeout Rate: 16.6% — Walk Rate: 5.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.8%

Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 12)

Analysis: Nolasco came off the disabled list only to get lit up by a strong Tigers lineup. He allowed six earned runs in only three innings pitched. The control was not there (four walks) and he is coming off a season in 2014 where he had a 5.38 ERA and low 6.51 K rate. He is an easy avoid today in a game with a big total. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.266 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.227

Analysis: Abreu’s numbers against righties are a bit down so far this year, but his numbers still look solid. He comes into this game with five home runs and fifteen runs batted in on the season and has a great matchup against Nolasco who will likely be still trying to find his rhythm today.

Secondary Plays:

Avisail Garcia
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.450 — ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.400

Adam LaRoche
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.228 — ISO: 0.095 — OBP: 0.208

Adam Eaton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.232 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.227

Minnesota

Joe Mauer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.068 — OBP: 0.377

The power has not been there for Mauer in recent years, but the average has continued to stay high. He is hitting over .300 to start the year and has a great matchup against Noesi who is allowing a wOBA of .353 to left-handed batters this year.

Secondary Plays:

Brian Dozier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.259 — ISO: 0.098 — OBP: 0.283

Trevor Plouffe
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.170 — OBP: 0.346

Danny Santana
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.213 — ISO: 0.019 — OBP: 0.231

Pittsburgh at St. Louis

Pittsburgh					St. Louis
			Francisco Liriano					John Lackey
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-113)					7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.270	0.740	0.331	31.0%	SP vs. Left	0.256	0.720	0.316	18.60%
SP vs. Right	0.202	0.623	0.284	24.0%	SP vs. Right	0.269	0.744	0.327	20.80%
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano

Salaries: $8700 FD, $9000 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.19 — Strikeout Rate: 31.3% — Walk Rate: 12.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.40 — Strikeout Rate: 25.3% — Walk Rate: 11.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.4%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 25.3% (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Liriano has continued his 2014 success into the early part of this season. The Pirates pitcher is coming off arguably is best performance of the season as he blanked the Diamondbacks in hitter-friendly Chase Park over six innings and struck out seven batters. His K rate continues to give him tremendous upside for daily purposes and is sitting at 11.10 K/9 in his first four starts. He faces a lefty-heavy Cardinals squad that has a wOBA of .299 so far this year. He makes a solid start this afternoon. Rating = 8

John Lackey

Salaries: $7300 FD, $7600 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.92 — Strikeout Rate: 13.1% — Walk Rate: 4.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.48 — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% — Walk Rate: 5.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 44.4%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.281 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: With Lackey, you know what type of performance you are usually going to get. He should pitch at least six to seven innings, but will allow a lot of base runners during those innings. In his last two starts combined, he allowed 17 hits and eight earned runs in 12.2 innings. He will look to get back on track today against the Pirates, and he has a solid chance against a Pirates squad that has struggled against right-handed pitching this year. This game has a low total and Lackey is a small favorite. He makes a decent second starter today. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Neil Walker
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.361

Analysis: Walker makes a decent play at the second base position as he has hit right-handed pitching well this year (.368 wOBA). Lackey has given up a number of hits recently and Walker has the ability to get on base in multiple ways.

Secondary Plays:

Gregory Polanco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.145 — OBP: 0.319

St. Louis

None

Secondary Plays:

Matt Holliday
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.580 — ISO: 0.00 — OBP: 0.765

Jhonny Peralta
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.206 — ISO: 0.400 — OBP: 0.231

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs

Milwaukee					Chicago Cubs
			Mike Fiers					Jake Arrieta
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.188	0.517	0.234	26.8%	SP vs. Left	0.195	0.554	0.251	29.80%
SP vs. Right	0.171	0.542	0.240	28.6%	SP vs. Right	0.204	0.521	0.234	25.00%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits			CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers

Salaries: $7000 FD, $7800 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.97 — Strikeout Rate: 27.7% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.15 — Strikeout Rate: 23.9% — Walk Rate: 6.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 33.3%

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 23.1% (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Fiers, like the rest of this Brewers squad, has really struggled to start this season. He has not gone more than 5.2 innings in any of his four starts, has allowed a total of 17 runs (12 earned runs) and has given up four home runs, all in only 18.2 innings. His xFIP of less than four does show that improvements should start to be made at some point soon, but I will not be using him for anything other than a tournament play until I see it. His strikeout rate has stayed high at 10.61 K/9, which does give him some big time upside if he can pitch well. We still do not know the total of this game, but if the wind is blowing in, Fiers makes a tournament play due to his high K upside, but a risky one. Rating = 5

Jake Arrieta

Salaries: $9800 FD, $9100 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.99 — Strikeout Rate: 23.8% — Walk Rate: 6.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.4%
2014: xFIP: 2.73 — Strikeout Rate: 27.2% — Walk Rate: 6.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.2%

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.287 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 22.5% (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Arrieta really has everything going for him in this afternoon slate. He has pitched extremely well to open up the season (2.99 xFIP) and has continued to strike batters out at a very high rate (23.8%). Add this together with the fact that he has a matchup with the Brewers who are 25th in team wOBA against righties and have a strikeout rate of 22.5%. For the afternoon slate Arrieta is my top option (assuming the wind is not blowing out). Rating = 8.5

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

None

Secondary Plays:

Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.431 — ISO: 0.273 — OBP: 0.400

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396 — ISO: 0.140 — OBP: 0.453

Analysis: Rizzo is in play against any non-elite RH pitching these days. He has a wOBA of .396 against righties on the season and an overall OBP of .479. He has a solid matchup against Fiers, who has allowed +.400 wOBAs to batters from both sides of the plate this year.

Secondary Plays:

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: 0.083 — OBP: 0.489

Jorge Soler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.169 — OBP: 0.289

LA Angels at San Francisco

LA Angels					San Francisco
			Hector Santiago					Tim Hudson
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-115)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.244	0.606	0.274	20.0%	SP vs. Left	0.276	0.755	0.331	12.30%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.732	0.326	19.8%	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.667	0.292	18.50%
Batter Splits	ANA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	SF BvP		SF vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Santiago

Salaries: $7400 FD, $7200 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.01 — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% — Walk Rate: 11.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 25.8%
2014: xFIP: 4.57 — Strikeout Rate: 19.9% — Walk Rate: 9.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 30.7%

San Francisco Giants vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 26)

Analysis: Santiago has had a decent start to his 2015 campaign. He currently holds an ERA 2.28 and has only allowed one earned run in each of his last three starts. There appears though, to be some luck involved in Santiago’s efforts so far. His xFIP of 5.01 shows some regression should be in order soon and his 89.6% Left on Base percentage is bound to lower as well. Santiago is striking batters out at a decent 21.6% rate so far this year and if you think his luck can continue in a decent matchup against the Giants who have a wOBA of .304 against lefties. He is only in play as a tournament flyer today. Rating = 5

Tim Hudson

Salaries: $6700 FD, $6300 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.16 — Strikeout Rate: 12.2% — Walk Rate: 6.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 57.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.57 — Strikeout Rate: 15.2% — Walk Rate: 4.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.1%

Los Angeles Angels vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 14)

Analysis: At this point in his career, Hudson is not exactly someone we want to target for DFS. He has never been a major strikeout pitcher and he currently has the lowest rate of his career (12.2%). He faces a difficult Angels offense this afternoon who have struggled so far this year against righties, but have some big time bats in their offense. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.155 — OBP: 0.344

Analysis: Calhoun is always a solid choice in the outfield when facing a non-elite righty. Batting leadoff for a good offense, Calhoun can get you points in multiple ways and has a bit of power as well. Add that to the fact that Hudson allowed lefties a wOBA of .331 last year and you have a solid play this afternoon.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.474 — ISO: 0.311 — OBP: 0.459

Albert Pujols
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.358

San Francisco

Buster Posey
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.278

Analysis: It is a well-known DFS rule that Posey makes a solid play when the Giants go up against lefties. His numbers aren’t off the charts so far this season, but he has a great matchup against a subpar lefty in Santiago.

Secondary Plays:

Justin Maxwell
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.222 — OBP: 0.350

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