MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 9th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-05-12 12:54:52

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

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Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST

Baltimore					NY Yankees
			Wei-Yin Chen					Chase Whitley
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-116)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.267	0.671	0.298	16.9%	SP vs. Left	0.313	0.866	0.380	17.60%
SP vs. Right	0.262	0.746	0.326	17.8%	SP vs. Right	0.297	0.793	0.348	18.80%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Wei-Yin Chen

Salaries: $7200 FD, $6800 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 5.06 — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% — Walk Rate: 9.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.75 — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% — Walk Rate: 4.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.0%

New York Yankees vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Chen has had a strong start to the year in terms of competing in each game and giving his team a chance to win in each start. He has not allowed more than three earned runs in any of his five starts, but has had a few issues. His xFIP of 5.06 is a bit alarming as well as his five home runs allowed so far (1.57 HR/9). His low K rate of 16.8% takes him out of fantasy consideration along with the tough matchup against a Yankees squad who have hit lefties for a wOBA of .315 on the season. There are much better options than Chen today. Rating = 4

Chase Whitley

Salaries: $6900 FD, $5000 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 2.65 — Strikeout Rate: 22.5% — Walk Rate: 2.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 57.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.77 — Strikeout Rate: 19.1% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.3%

Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.336 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Whitley has been great so far in his first two starts of the season. He began his 2015 campaign with a five-inning, one-run-allowed start against the Rays and then followed it up with a very impressive seven-inning, six-strikeout performance against a very solid Blue Jays squad at Rogers Centre. He will look to continue this solid play against another tough offense. It is hard to measure with so few starts this season, but his advanced stats (2.65 xFIP, 22.5% strikeout rate) look great on paper. He makes a decent second starter on multi-pitcher sites today, but does have a tough matchup against one of the better offenses in the league. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.333

Analysis: Whitley has pitched very well to start his year off, but (in a small sample size) has struggled to get lefties out. He is allowing a wOBA of .414 to left-handed bats on the year, which brings Chris Davis into the discussion. Davis has a solid ISO of .254 on the year against righties and has three home runs over his last nine games.

Secondary Plays:

Jimmy Paredes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.403 — ISO: 0.273 — OBP: 0.339

Adam Jones
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.185 — OBP: 0.339

NY Yankees

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.258 — OBP: 0.342

Analysis: Well, it didn’t take too long for A-Rod to reach the 661 pinnacle and it makes me believe his resurgence may be real this year. He has solid recently as he has five hits in his last four games including two doubles, one triple and a home run. I could see another solid game for Rodriguez who should be hitting in the third spot today.

Secondary Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.425 — ISO: 0.029 — OBP: 0.500

Mark Teixeira
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.233 — OBP: 0.359

Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST

Boston					Toronto
			Joe Kelly					Drew Hutchison
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-119)					9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.243	0.689	0.318	14.9%	SP vs. Left	0.256	0.811	0.353	21.60%
SP vs. Right	0.237	0.696	0.307	17.1%	SP vs. Right	0.222	0.615	0.273	25.70%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Kelly

Salaries: $6800 FD, $4900 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.21 — Strikeout Rate: 25.6% — Walk Rate: 6.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.5%
2014: xFIP: 4.19 — Strikeout Rate: 15.9% — Walk Rate: 10.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.9%

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 8)

Analysis: The move to the AL has not exactly been kind on Joe Kelly. In his last three starts, Kelly has allowed five runs in each and has allowed 26 total base runners. He has another tough matchup in hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, and should be avoided this afternoon. Rating = 3

Drew Hutchison

Salaries: $7200 FD, $6300 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.67 — Strikeout Rate: 15.9% — Walk Rate: 8.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.82 — Strikeout Rate: 23.4% — Walk Rate: 7.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.1%

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 16.0% (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Hutchison has had a disappointing start to 2015. He has a 2-0 record, yet, in his other four starts he has been crushed for at least four earned runs (23 total) and has not gone more than 4.1 innings in any of those games. In his prior matchup against Boston, Hutchison went four innings and allowed six earned runs. The potential is there as he had a decent year last year with a nice amount of strikeouts, but has not shown up yet this season. Avoid him today against the Red Sox in a game with a total of nine and a moneyline close to a pickem. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.410

Analysis: Ortiz will be returning from his one game suspension and gets to hit in Rogers Centre against an average pitcher. Prior to the suspension, Ortiz had reached base safely in his previous nine games and while he did not hit any home runs during that span, he did have 11 hits and four doubles. He makes a solid first base choice for the afternoon slate.

Secondary Plays:

Pablo Sandoval
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.434 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.464

Mookie Betts
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331— ISO: 0.180 — OBP: 0.327

Toronto

Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.253 — OBP: 0.355

Analysis: Kelly has struggled against batters from both sides of the plate this year and has allowed a wOBA of .363 to righties so far. A lot of the Blue Jays are in play, but Donaldson is coming off a game where he went deep and has been swinging a solid bat lately. Over his last ten games he has four multi-hit games, three home runs and six walks. He should be able to get on base and do some damage against Kelly today.

Secondary Plays:

Russell Martin
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.324 — OBP: 0.369

Devon Travis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.215 — OBP: 0.375

Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.269 — OBP: 0.361

Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.265 — ISO: 0.138 — OBP: 0.260

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:08 PM EST

Kansas City					Detroit
			Jeremy Guthrie					Anibal Sanchez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET (-149)					9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.296	0.828	0.364	14.8%	SP vs. Left	0.218	0.562	0.251	21.30%
SP vs. Right	0.234	0.601	0.270	13.8%	SP vs. Right	0.235	0.651	0.290	17.80%
Batter Splits	KC BvP		KC vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Guthrie

Salaries: $6400 FD, $4700 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.93 — Strikeout Rate: 8.7% — Walk Rate: 7.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.2%
2014: xFIP: 4.33 — Strikeout Rate: 14.4% — Walk Rate: 5.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.6%

Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.332 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 17)

Analysis: It looks like there will be a number of offensive players to choose from this afternoon as there are a lot of struggling pitchers taking the mound. Guthrie is included in that group as he has allowed at least three earned runs in each of his five starts and is striking guys out at a very low 8.7% rate. He should not be on anyone’s radar today against a solid Tigers squad. Rating = 4

Anibal Sanchez

Salaries: $8400 FD, $8600 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.69 — Strikeout Rate: 22.9% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.56 — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% — Walk Rate: 5.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.7%

Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 26)

Analysis: Sanchez’s numbers are a bit inflated due to allowing a nine spot to the White Sox earlier in the season. His ERA of 5+ should begin to come down as his xFIP is at a solid 3.69 so far this year. His strikeouts are consistent and he has a decent rate of 22.9% in 2015. He does have a tough matchup against the Royals who rarely strikeout and have a great offense this year (338 wOBA against righties). This drops his value down a bit, but is a guy with some of the highest upside on this afternoon slate. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Eric Hosmer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.473 — ISO: 0.296 — OBP: 0.443

Analysis: In order for an offense to be playing this good they need someone who has stepped up their game to get on base, drive in runs, etc. That man is Hosmer who has been on fire this season. Recently, he has been absolutely crushing the ball with 14 hits over his last ten games, including four home runs and 12 runs batted in. He has a wOBA of .473 against right-handed pitchers and makes a solid play this afternoon.

Secondary Plays:

Alex Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.469

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.454 — ISO: 0.263 — OBP: 0.449

Analysis: Miggy is a guy I like to check out the BvP numbers on as he has faced many of these AL Central pitchers so many times. His numbers against Guthrie do not disappoint, as he is 19/53 with four home runs in his career. This matchup is a great one for Cabrera since Guthrie is really struggling and Cabrera just bombed off him last time out.

Secondary Plays:

Victor Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.169 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.260

Anthony Gose
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.140 — OBP: 0.356

Ian Kinsler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.091 — OBP: 0.416

Atlanta at Washington – 4:05 PM EST

Atlanta					Washington
			Julio Teheran					Doug Fister
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS (-146)
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.235	0.687	0.301	18.8%	SP vs. Left	0.259	0.690	0.306	15.90%
SP vs. Right	0.218	0.587	0.262	23.4%	SP vs. Right	0.225	0.618	0.273	13.60%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran

Salaries: $8300 FD, $9000 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.36 — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% — Walk Rate: 9.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.72 — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% — Walk Rate: 5.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 34.8%

Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 7)

Analysis: Teheran is coming off a solid performance against the Reds where he went six innings and only allowed three hits. He has been pretty good on the season despite some early season struggles with his command. He has brought his walk rate down a bit to 9.7% and if he can continue to keep the free passes down, he should continue to be a decent choice for daily fantasy in good matchups. Today is a decent matchup against the Nationals who are ranked 24th in team wOBA against righties. This game features one of the lower totals of the afternoon and Teheran can be targeted. Rating = 6.5

Doug Fister

Salaries: $8000 FD, $7300 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 4.55 — Strikeout Rate: 10.5% — Walk Rate: 6.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.85 — Strikeout Rate: 14.8% — Walk Rate: 3.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.9%

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 16.0% (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Fister is a good pitcher to have in your rotation, as he is consistent and will eat up innings for your staff, but is not a great daily fantasy player. His low K-rate, which has dropped to 10.5% this year drops his fantasy value tremendously and he has struggled a bit more this year than in years past. His 4.55 xFIP is a bit troublesome, but he is coming off one of his better performances of the year in his last start. I expect a similar line of six innings pitched with one or two earned runs while striking out about four batters. He is not going to blow you away with his numbers, but with the lack of good options this afternoon, he is one of the bigger favorites on the slate. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.415 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.386

Analysis: As always, there are a bunch of great first base options on this slate. Freeman has been crushing righties all year and has a .415 wOBA to show for it.

Secondary Plays:

A.J. Pierzynski
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.214 — OBP: 0.371

Kelly Johnson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.323 — OBP: 0.299

Washington

Bryce Harper
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.430 — ISO: 0.342 — OBP: 0.415

Analysis: Not much has to be said about the heater that Harper is currently on. Six hits and five home runs in his last two games is pretty amazing, and while I do not expect another multi-homerun game, he is clearly seeing the ball well at the moment and should be targeted.

Secondary Plays:

Denard Span
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.450 — ISO: 0.342 — OBP: 0.415

Minnesota at Cleveland – 4:10 PM EST

Minnesota					Cleveland
			Phil Hughes					Bruce Chen
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE (-107)					9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.245	0.619	0.272	22.5%	SP vs. Left	0.305	0.770	0.336	14.50%
SP vs. Right	0.287	0.733	0.321	20.9%	SP vs. Right	0.347	0.968	0.419	16.80%
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Phil Hughes

Salaries: $7900 FD, $8100 DK

Pitching Stats
2015: xFIP: 3.92 — Strikeout Rate: 17.4% — Walk Rate: 2.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 32.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.18 — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% — Walk Rate: 1.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.5%

Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 16.6% (Rank: 27)

Analysis: The man who never walks anyone is actually coming off a multi-walk performance in his last game against the A’s. He has struggled pretty bad this year as he has allowed four or more earned runs in three of his six starts. What is more concerning is the amount of base runners he has allowed so far combined with a low strikeout rate of 17.4%. He has a tough matchup today as a small underdog in a game with a total of 8. I can see taking a tournament flyer on him, but nothing else. Rating = 5

Bruce Chen

Salaries: $5300 FD, $4400 DK

Pitching Stats
2014: xFIP: 4.93 — Strikeout Rate: 16.1% — Walk Rate: 7.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 27.7%

Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 18.1% (Rank: 22)

Analysis: Chen has yet to pitch this year for the big league squad as he has been down in the minors at Triple AAA. While his Triple AAA numbers are decent, it is difficult to trust a 37-year-old pitcher who has a career xFIP of 4.71 and a K rate of 6.70 K/9. Avoid him today. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Brian Dozier
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: 0.163 — OBP: 0.347

Analysis: In 2014, Chen allowed a wOBA of .419 to right-handed bats. This puts Dozier into a prime matchup against a lefty for a decent price across the industry. I expect this Twins team to score a number of early runs against Chen and Dozier should be in the thick of it.

Secondary Plays:

Kennys Vargas
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.088 — OBP: 0.405

Trevor Plouffe
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.156 — OBP: 0.347

Cleveland

Michael Brantley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.386

Analysis: Hughes has struggled a bit more with righties this year, but Brantley is tough to ignore due to his .378 wOBA against right-handed bats and his overall ability to score fantasy points. He has reached base safely in his last eight games and has six extra-base hits during that time. He is a very consistent option for your cash games today.

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Santana
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389— ISO: 0.255 — OBP: 0.403

Jason Kipnis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.138 — OBP: 0.397

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