MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 13th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-09-14 15:44:22

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Atlanta at Texas

Atlanta					Texas
Julio Teheran		Vegas Moneyline			Lisalverto Bonilla		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-150)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.232	0.680	0.299	18.10%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.223	0.600	0.268	23.80%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Julio Teheran – With a 13-11 record and 3.00 ERA through 30 starts, it’s safe to say that Teheran has had his breakout season. However, his ERA has risen with each passing month and he may be running out of gas now that he’s topped 200 innings. It’s also worth noting that he’s really struggled during day games, posting a 1-5 record and 4.68 ERA in seven starts. With that said, there aren’t many “Aces” on the mound today to choose from and this matchup against MLB’s worst team, the Texas Rangers, makes him a solid option. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8300 FD, $18300 DD, $8500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $19150 FTD

• Lisalverto Bonilla – With Scott Baker a late scratch, Lisalverto Bonilla will draw the first start of his career. He’s been used out of the bullpen by the Rangers up until now, but was used as a starter at AAA where he went 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA in six starts. He’s racked up strikeouts at every level he’s been, which makes him an intriguing GPP option against a strikeout prone Atlanta team but there are a lot of question marks here. Rating = 4

Salaries: $3000 FD, $ DD, $5200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman extended his hitting streak to eight games last night and is now hitting .325 since the beginning of August. He owns a .391 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and will take on the unproven Lisalverto Bonilla at Rangers Stadium.

Additional Plays: Jason Heyward,

Texas

Adrian Beltre – I don’t like picking on Teheren, but Beltre has proven to be somewhat matchup proof. He’s hitting .371 this season at Rangers Ballpark and .353 during the month of September. He’s a viable option at the hot corner in all formats despite a somewhat challenging matchup

Additional Plays:Leonys Martin

NY Yankees at Baltimore

NY Yankees					Baltimore
Shane Greene		Vegas Moneyline			Miguel Gonzalez		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-137)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.270	0.746	0.338	14.7%	SP vs. Left	0.256	0.765	0.337	15.40%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.660	0.299	29.9%	SP vs. Right	0.251	0.726	0.323	18.50%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Shane Greene – After being shelled by the Red Sox to open the month of September, Greene bounced back nicely against the Royals in his last start. He’ll head into Camden Yards to take on a very dangerous Baltimore lineup but he has several things going his way today; 1) He owns a 3-0 record and 2.59 ERA on the road this season, 2) He’s been fantastic in day games, going 2-1 with a 1.98 ERA in six afternoons starts, and 3) He dominated Baltimore in their only other meetings (7.1 shutout innings). Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $9100 DD, $7500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Miguel Gonzalez – Gonzalez has rather quietly been absolutely brilliant since the All-Star break, posting a 5-2 record with a 1.86 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight second half starts. He owns a 2.92 ERA over 10 starts this season at Camden Yards and has pitched quite well in both prior meetings with the Yankees. His recent success has pushed his ERA on the season all the way down to 3.22, but 4.46 xFIP suggests that he’s been a bit lucky. His success hinges on his ability to avoid the longball, which still makes him a slightly risky cash game option. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7500 FD, $13750 DD, $8000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $11400 FTD

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Brett Gardner – Gardner got back into the lineup last night and, after grabbing a hit and swiping a bag, put his injury concerns to rest. He leads this Yankees team in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.355 wOBA) and Marco Gonzalez has been vulnerable to left-handed bats this season (.337 wOBA against)

Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann

Baltimore

Alejandro De Aza – De Aza has come alive since joining the Orioles and, with hits in both games yesterday, now has at least one hit in all eight games since switching teams. Lefties own a .338 wOBA off of Greene this season and De Aza is thriving at the top of this dangerous Baltimore lineup.

Additional Plays:Nick Markakis, David Lough, Nelson Cruz

Tampa Bay at Toronto

Tampa Bay					Toronto
Jeremy Hellickson		Vegas Moneyline			R.A. Dickey		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-135)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.212	0.593	0.266	22.2%	SP vs. Left	0.228	0.690	0.310	17.50%
SP vs. Right	0.329	0.926	0.406	16.7%	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.742	0.326	20.70%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson came out of the gates strong after missing the first half of the season, but things haven’t gone smoothly lately as the Rays have lost each of his last five starts and he owns a 5.55 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in his last five outings. He’ll head to the Rogers Center to take on a Blue Jays team that crushed him last week and that also ranks #1 in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching (.336 wOBA). He’s thrown several gems already this season, so he’s worthy of GPP consideration but there are safer cash game options. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5300 FD, $10850 DD, $7300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12200 FTD

• R.A. Dickey – While in Vegas last weekend, I compared Dickey to the roullette table because anyone who claims they have a system to win that game is full of sh*t. He’s been terrific lately, including a rather dominant start against this Tampa team last week, but he’s also already surrendered five or more earned runs in eight different starts this season (one of which was to Tampa). His 7.45 K’s/9 is serviceable but trusting that knuckleball to dance is better reserved for GPP use. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7900 FD, $14650 DD, $8500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

This Rays team has been cold at the plate and none of these guys have had any success against Dickey in the past. While they’re almost all still tournament options, I won’t be targeting any of them in cash games.

Toronto

Jose Reyes – Reyes is hitting .291 since the All-Star break and his game is perfectly suited for the turf at Rogers Centre as he’s hitting .30 points higher at home this season. He’ll take on Jeremy Hellickson today and he’s punished him in the past, going 7 for 18 with a double and a homerun.

Additional Plays:Jose Bautista, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh

Chicago Cubs					Pittsburgh
Felix Doubront		Vegas Moneyline			Jeff Locke		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		PIT (-220)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.316	0.783	0.350	17.1%	SP vs. Left	0.180	0.503	0.229	9.30%
SP vs. Right	0.256	0.832	0.363	13.6%	SP vs. Right	0.266	0.749	0.331	18.70%
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Felix Doubront – Doubront has pitched well in both starts since being acquired by the Cubs. He’s consistently posted strong strikeout numbers over the past few season but just simply can’t seem to avoid the longball. For the second start in a row, he’ll take on a Pittsburgh team that, despite owning several batters who mash left-handed pitching, is ranked #27 in MLB in wOBA against southpaws this season. This shift to the National League certainly can’t hurt, but his inconsistencies over the past few years make him a risky cash game option. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $5700 FD, $7500 DD, $5200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $6800 FTD

• Jeff Locke – Lock enters tonight’s game hoping to build off his last start where he allowed just one run on three hits over seven innings in Philadelphia (9 strikeouts). Locke enjoys pitching in front of the Pittsburgh faithful as he’s posted a 4-1 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in nine starts at PNC Park. A matchup against the Chicago Cubs isn’t overly intimidating, but they are ranked #8 in MLB in wOBA against left-handed pitching so keep your expectations in check. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $12950 DD, $7900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12650 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Javier Baez – Baez finally broke out of his mini slump last night by hitting a homerun. He’s struggled early in his career but still has great power potential.

Additional Plays: Welington Castillo

Pittsburgh

Starling Marte – While his teammate may receive all of the media attention (and rightfully so), Marte has been the most dangerous hitter on the Pirates since for over a month now. He sports a .362 batting average since returning to the club in early August from a concussion and is a lifetime .339 hitter against left-handed pitching. He was beaned on the elbow earlier this week so obviously make sure that he’s back tonight before deploying him into your lineups.

Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen, Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison

Miami at Philadelphia

Miami					Philadelphia
Brad Hand		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Kendrick		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		PHI (-141)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.234	0.641	0.284	17.1%	SP vs. Left	0.282	0.822	0.358	16.50%
SP vs. Right	0.268	0.795	0.349	13.0%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.722	0.320	12.30%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brad Hand – In a battle of two uninspiring fantasy starting pitchers, Brad Hand will toe the rubber for the Marlins in Philadelphia tonight. While his 3-6 record, 4.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP aren’t much to write home about, he has pitched decently since the All-Star break, posting a 3.86 ERA over 53.2 innings. The Phillies rank near the bottom of the league in wOBA against left-handed pitching, but they did manage to rough Hand up a bit in their only previous meeting this season. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5500 FD, $10100 DD, $5500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick takes the mound against Miami tonight sporting a mediocre 8-12 record and 4.83 ERA. The Marlins may strikeout more often than any other team in baseball against right-handed pitching (23.7% K%), but with just 5.53 K’s/9 on the season, Kendrick is unlikely to take advantage of that. He won’t have to deal with Giancarlo Stanton, which is a huge plus, but he just doesn’t offer much upside. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6100 FD, $11400 DD, $6000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $10550 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Christian Yelich – Lefties own a .358 wOBA off of Kendrick this season and Yelich has a solid .348 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Yelich is hitting .319 since the All-Star break and is 4 for 9 off of Kendrick in their previous meetings.

Additional Plays: Marcell Ozuna

Philadelphia

Marlon Byrd – Right handed batters own a .349 wOBA against Brad Hand this season and Byrd is a .288 career hitter against left-handed pitching.

Additional Plays: Carlos Ruiz

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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