mMLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 13th Page Two

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2014-09-13 14:57:37

Cleveland at Detroit

Cleveland					Detroit
Danny Salazar		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Lobstein		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-120)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.243	0.689	0.309	25.30%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.284	0.797	0.347	23.30%	SP vs. Right	0.222	0.677	0.300	11.70%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs L		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Danny Salazar – After absolutely dominating this Detroit team last week (CG shutout with 9 strikeouts), Salazar was lit up by the Angels in his last start. I suppose that is the pitching life of a 24 year old flame thrower. This Detroit team ranks #4 in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching and were able to rough Salazar up a bit in his last visit to Motown. Salazar has been much less effective on the road (4.91 ERA) and the Tigers rank #2, behind only Colorado, in wOBA at home this season. There are red flags here, but he’s obviously very capable of tossing a gem anytime he takes the mound which makes him a fine GPP candidate. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $14800 DD, $7800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13850 FTD

• Kyle Lobstein – As the playoff race has heated up, Kyle Lobstein has been a savoir for the Detroit Tigers. He picked up his first career win in his last start and the Tigers have now won each of the last four games in which he’s started. He’ll do battle with this Cleveland team for the second time in the last week and will look to repeat his impressive performance from that outing, 5.1 innings, 2 earned runs, five hits and 10 strikeouts. His 4.35 xFIP and .239 BABIP suggest that he’ll soon regress towards his 4.07 ERA at AAA this season, but the Indians are loaded with left-handed batters and own just a .299 wOBA against southpaws this season. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6000 FD, $8750 DD, $6600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Yan Gomes – Gomes has turned things on lately, posting a .331 batting average since the All-Star break. He’s hitting .328 against left-handed pitching this season and is a top tier option at catcher today against Kyle Lobstein.

Additional Plays:Carlos Santana

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Mr. Triple Crown may be having a down season by his standards, but he’s already surpassed 100 RBI’s and he’s now hitting .432 during the month of September. He’s been better both at home and against right-handed pitching and he’ll get both of those today against Danny Salazar, who he’s 5 for 10 with a double and a homerun off of.

Additional Plays: Ian Kinsler, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez

Boston at Kansas City

Boston					Kansas City
Rubby De La Rosa		Vegas Moneyline			Jeremy Guthrie		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		KCR (-150)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.296	0.837	0.365	13.90%	SP vs. Left	0.303	0.853	0.374	14.70%
SP vs. Right	0.263	0.744	0.329	18.90%	SP vs. Right	0.246	0.628	0.282	14.20%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Rubby De La Rosa – De La Rosa has been a serviceable starter for the Red Sox this season as he owns a respectable 4.01 ERA through his first 16 starts of the season. However, he’s stumbled lately, posting a. 6.20 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in over his last five starts. He picked up a win after tossed seven innings of one run ball against the Royals in their only other meeting this season, but hasn’t pitched quiet as well away from Fenway. With the Royals being the toughest team in MLB to strike out, it probably makes sense to look elsewhere tonight. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $9700 DD, $5400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie has been alternating good starts and bad starts lately, and if that trend continues than he should have a nice night against the Red Sox since he was abused by the Tigers in his last start (8 runs in just 2.2 innings). His 10-11 record and 4.54 ERA both indicate that he’s pretty much a league average pitcher, and with limited strikeout potential, that makes him a rather unappealing fantasy option. He’s yet to face this Boston team this season, but they rocked him in two starts last season and i’ll be avoiding him today. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5900 FD, $10900 DD, $6800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $11200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz – Anytime you see Guthrie on the mound, it’s time to target some lefties going against him. Ortiz has pounded him in the past, going 13 for 41 with five doubles and three homeruns. He missed last night’s game with a foot issue, so double-check his status.

Additional Plays: Daniel Nava

Kansas City

Eric Hosmer – Hosmer is quietly hitting .333 since the beginning of July. He homered last night and can still be found at a very reasonable price.

Additional Plays: Alex Gordon

Washington at NY Mets

Washington					NY Mets
Doug Fister		Vegas Moneyline			Zack Wheeler		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		WAS (-125)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.726	0.322	15.10%	SP vs. Left	0.265	0.763	0.342	20.80%
SP vs. Right	0.224	0.608	0.270	14.20%	SP vs. Right	0.208	0.599	0.271	25.80%
Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Doug Fister – Fister fell into a rut during the middle of August and had three straight subpar starts, but he bounced back with a dominant performance in his last start, tossing seven scoreless innings against Atlanta. He now finds himself with the following impressive stat line through 22 starts; 13-6 record, 2.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He absolutely dominated this Mets team in both prior meetings this season, and with David Wright now gone from the lineup, he’s among the top options on the board tonight. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $8200 FD, $15450 DD, $8900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $17200 FTD

• Zack Wheeler – Wheeler stumbled a bit out of the gates this season, but has really come on strong done the stretch and has given Mets fans some hope that next season will be MUCH better. In 13 starts since June 30th, he’s posted the following statline: 7-1 record, 2.21 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The Nationals have had his number a bit this season and Doug Fister will make securing a “W” quite difficult, but he’s good for a strikeout per inning and more than capable of a great performance. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7900 FD, $15250 DD, $9000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $15200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Washington & NY Mets

I’m expecting a pitchers duel here and won’t be targeting any bats from this game. LaRoche, Harper, Rendon and Span are all viable GPP options

Cincinnati at Milwaukee

Cincinnati					Milwaukee
David Holmberg		Vegas Moneyline			Yovani Gallardo		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		MIL (-200)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.229	0.639	0.288	17.90%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.278	0.750	0.332	16.70%
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• David Holmberg – Holmberg held the Cardinals scoreless over 5.2 innings of work in his last start, but things went ugly for him when given the chance earlier this season. He owns a 2-6 record with a 4.66 ERA and 1.64 WHIP at AAA Louisville this season and is now being tasked with taking on a Brewers lineup loaded with lefty killers at the hitter friendly Miller Park. Avoid. Rating = 1

Salaries: $5000 FD, $9650 DD, $4900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo has given up five earned runs in back-to-back starts, pushing him to a 8-9 record with a 3.61 ERA on the season. Unfortunately for him, he’s really struggled at Miller Park this season, posting a 2-6 record and a 4.48 ERA in 15 home starts. Things aren’t all bad though as he’ll take on a Cincinnati team who he’s already pitched quite well against in three starts this season and who own the leagues worst wOBA since the All-Star break (.275). As an added bonus he should receive plenty of run support with an inexperienced lefty taking on this Brewers lineup in Miller park. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6600 FD, $14150 DD, $8400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Brandon Phillips – Phillips finally seems to be heating up for the Reds as he’s hitting .333 over the last week. He’ll head into Miller Park to take on Yovani Gallardo and he’s worn him out in the past, going 22 for 60 with three doubles and a pair of homeruns.

Additional Plays: Billy Hamilton, Ryan Ludwick

Milwaukee

Jonathan Lucroy – With an inexperienced lefty on the mound against the Brew Crew, be ready to pounce. Lucroy is an elite catching option as owns a .366 wOBA against left-handed pitching and should find himself batting third in this dangerous lineup. He extended his hitting streak to five games last night and is hitting .349 during the month of September.

Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Khris Davis

Colorado at St. Louis

Colorado					St. Louis
Franklin Morales		Vegas Moneyline			Shelby Miller		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		STL (-220)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.240	0.675	0.303	13.60%	SP vs. Left	0.237	0.730	0.322	14.80%
SP vs. Right	0.306	0.922	0.398	16.40%	SP vs. Right	0.228	0.688	0.306	16.70%
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Franklin Morales – Morales took advantage of soft matchup against the Padres in his last start, but his nice outings have been few and far between this season. Pitching in Coors is a natural defense for Colorado pitchers, but Morales’ ERA is actually higher on the road this season (5.29 road ERA). The Cardinals roughed him up a bit (out of the bullpen) in their only meeting this season and the Cardinals have had some success, by their standards, against left-handed pitching this season. His strikeout rate has dropped to 6.35 this season and he should be used as nothing more than a GPP Flier.

Salaries: $5800 FD, $9850 DD, $5500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Shelby Miller – Miller enters tonight’s game on the heels of back-to-back scoreless outings that has now lowered his ERA to 3.83 on the season. His poor control(3.83 BB/9) has really caused him some issues this season, but he didn’t give out a free pass in his last start. He’ll take on a Colorado team that is ranked #29th in MLB in wOBA on the road and Miller owns a 2.57 ERA at Busch Stadium in 31 career starts. His inconsistencies make hurt his ranking a bit, but i’m expecting another solid outing. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6300 FD, $12550 DD, $6700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $11150 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies have only scored three total runs over the last four games and I’m not looking to pay their inflated prices for a game outside of Coors Field.

St. Louis

Matt Holliday – Right handed batters own a .398 wOBA against Franklin Morales and Holliday owns a .400 wOBA against left-handed pitching. He’s posted an .846 OPS and hit 11 HR’s since the All-Star break and has rocked his former team in his career to the tune of a .392 average and 1.162 OPS.

Additional Plays: Jhonny Peralta, Yadier Molina

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3