MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 6th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
San Francisco at Detroit
| San Francisco | Detroit | ||||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | Vegas Moneyline | David Price | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | DET (-122) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.559 | 0.247 | 31.10% | SP vs. Left | 0.271 | 0.712 | 0.315 | 22.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.662 | 0.292 | 24.50% | SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.627 | 0.276 | 28.70% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP  | SFG vs L | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Madison Bumgarner – “Bummy” just completed a terrific August that saw him post a 4-1 record, 1.57 ERA, 0.63 WHIP and rack up 56 K’s in 46 innings. He’ll look to keep things going today in Detroit against a Tigers lineup that rank #1 in MLB in wOBA against left-handed pitching (.341 wOBA) but he’s been rather dominant away from the Bay Area this season, posting a 10-3 record and 1.86 ERA in 15 road starts. The matchup is far from ideal here, he’ll have to face a DH in this one and David Price will make securing a “W” quite difficult, so he’s slightly risky in cash games considering his cost, but he’s locked in right now and more than capable of pitching another gem. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $10300 FD, $22400 DD, $11500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $22150 FTD
- David Price – While he’s shown to be a bit susceptible to occasional “blow-up” outings (ie. Aug 27 vs NYY) he’s still sports a very solid 3.25 ERA on the season. He’s been burned by the longball this season, as his 23 HR’s allowed is the third highest in MLB. He leads MLB in strikeouts this season (232) which obviously gives him significant fantasy appeal. He’s proven in the past to step up his game in high pressure situations and, with Detroit fighting for a playoff spot, I expect an impressive performance from him today in what looks to be a pitchers duel at Comerica Park. Rating = 8
Salaries: $11100 FD, $20550 DD, $12400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $20500 FTD
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco and Detroit
With two of the games best pitchers going against each other, I’ll be looking elsewhere for bats. For Detroit; Kinsler, Miggy, V-Mart, Davis, Hunter and J.D. Martinez all hit left-handed pitching well and are therefore GPP options. The same can be said for Pence, Posey and Morse from San Fransisco.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay
| Baltimore | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Kevin Gausman | Vegas Moneyline | Drew Smyly | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-137) | LEFT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.735 | 0.325 | 17.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.164 | 0.457 | 0.204 | 28.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.651 | 0.291 | 17.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.779 | 0.341 | 18.50% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kevin Gausman – Guasman was disappointing for the Orioles when he finally got his chance at the Big Show last season, but has put together a solid season in his second attempt. The highly touted prospect owns a 7-7 record and 3.93 ERA after 16 starts this season. He’ll head into Tampa to take on a Rays team who he’s already faced three times this season with the results being mediocre. He has, however, pitched very well away from Camden Yards this season, posting a 3-2 record and 3.27 ERA in seven road starts. His mid 90’s fastball hasn’t quite equated to as many K’s as many expected (6.65 K’s/9) and his inconsistencies make him a risky cash game target, but his upside is ideal for GPP use. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6200 FD, $12300 DD, $6900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Drew Smyly – Smyly has pitched incredibly well since being traded to Tampa, posting a 3-1 record with 1.73 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in his six starts wearing a Rays uniform. He’ll square off today against a dangerous Baltimore lineup but just made easy work of them last week allowing just one run on two hits over seven innings. His strikeout rate has dipped slightly this season, but is still quite respectable at 7.65 K’s/9. His asking price is starting to creep up, but there is still some value here. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8000 FD, $14600 DD, $8400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14400 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Adam Jones – While Drew Smyly has been very good lately, right-handed batters still own a .341 wOBA off of him this season. Jones sports a ridiculous .448 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and has already taken Smyly deep in their brief history against each other.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Steve Pearce, Delmon Young
Tampa Bay
Ben Zobrist – Zobrist has given Gausman fits in the past, going 6 for 10 with three doubles against him. He’s hitting .304 since the 4th of July and should once again find himself in the leadoff spot for the Rays.
Additional Plays: Evan Longoria, Kevin Kiermaier, Matt Joyce
Houston at Oakland
| Houston | Oakland | ||||||||
| Scott Feldman | Vegas Moneyline | Scott Kazmir | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | OAK (-200) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.279 | 0.757 | 0.331 | 12.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.255 | 0.664 | 0.300 | 22.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.735 | 0.325 | 14.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.633 | 0.283 | 20.00% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Scott Feldman – Feldman may be fresh off of a complete game, three-hit shutout of MLB’s worst team (Texas Rangers), but things do a complete 180 for him this afternoon as he’ll head to Oakland to take MLB’s highest scoring offense. He’s quietly been pitching quite well lately, posting a 4-2 record with a 3.04 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over his last seven starts, but he’s been defeated by this Oakland in all three previous meetings this season and his 5.21 K’s/9 leaves him with a very limited upside. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6600 FD, $11050 DD, $6800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $9800 FTD
- Scott Kazmir – It’ll be like Christmas morning for Kazmir to take the mound against any team other than the Angels as Anahiem absolutely demolished him in each of his last two start; hanging 13 earned runs on him in just 4.1 innings of work. His ERA that once sat near 2.00 has now ballooned up to 3.39 after an August that saw him go 2-4 with a 7.80 ERA in six starts. His recent struggles may raise a few red flags, but the matchup today is a nice one for three main reasons, 1) He has dominated this Houston team this season (1.71 ERA in three starts), 2) He sports an 8-3 record and 2.93 ERA at the Oakland Coliseum, and 3) the Astros own a 26.3% strikeout percentage. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8000 FD, $16550 DD, $7300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $17750 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Jose Altuve – Altuve is a top notch option at 2B today as he’s hitting .419 this season against left-handed pitching (.447 wOBA). He owns a .350 batting average since the all-star break and has also had tremendous success against Kazmir in the past, going 8 for 16 with a pair of doubles.
Additional Plays: Dexter Fowler, Chris Carter
Oakland
Derek Norris – While I usually only tend to target Norris against left-handed pitching, the Athletics will lean on him heavily with both Vogt and Jaso banged up. He owns a respectable .325 wOBA against right-handed pitching and has knocked Scott Feldman around in the past, going 5 for 10 with a longball.
Additional Plays: Josh Reddick, Josh Donaldson, Coco Crisp
Philadelphia at Washington
| Philadelphia | Washington | ||||||||
| A.J. Burnett | Vegas Moneyline | Tanner Roark | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-163) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.769 | 0.342 | 18.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.683 | 0.304 | 13.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.717 | 0.319 | 22.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.587 | 0.262 | 22.20% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- A.J. Burnett – Burnett will take the mound this afternoon to square off against the Washington Nationals for the sixth time this season. He’s pitched admirably in the first five meetings, going 3-2 with a 4.13 ERA while striking out a batter per inning. However, Burnett has been absymal away from Citizens Bank Park this season, posting a 3-9 record, 5.46 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 15 road starts. His command has been an issue throughout his career, but with reduced velocity on his fastball nowadays he’s no longer to consistently pitch himself out of trouble. He’s racked up 29 strikeouts over his last three starts, so there’s still plenty of upside here but he’s better served as a high-risk/high-reward GPP option. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7200 FD, $14100 DD, $7700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14350 FTD
- Tanner Roark – Roark will look to bounce back from a disappointing outing today against Phillies team that blasted him early this season, but who he’s held in check in back-to-back meetings since. The Phillies rank near the bottom of MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching so that bodes well for Roark today this afternoon. He has held his own at Nationals Park during his young career, posting a 9-5 record, 2.00 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 20 home starts. They’re may be more exciting options on the board today, but Roark rock steady option in all formats. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7300 FD, $15100 DD, $8600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $15650 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Grady Sizemore – While he may be shell of his former self, Sizemore is proving to still have some gas in the tank. He owns a .304 batting average since being acquired by Philadelphia and is hitting .273 on the season against right-handed pitching. Temper your expectations, but he’s a viable punt option in the OF.
Additional Plays: Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Ben Revere
Washington
Bryce Harper – After a forgettable first half of the season, the Bryce Harper everyone expected to start the season looks to finally be breaking out. He owns a .314 batting average and has smacked eight homeruns since over the last 30 days and A.J. Burnett has had problems retiring left-handed batters (.342 wOBA against).
Additional Plays: Adam LaRoche, Denard Span
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
| Pittsburgh | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Francisco Liriano | Vegas Moneyline | Felix Doubront | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | PIT (-150) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.763 | 0.338 | 29.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.319 | 0.784 | 0.350 | 17.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.211 | 0.660 | 0.297 | 23.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.850 | 0.369 | 14.40% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs L | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Francisco Liriano – One disasterous start aside, he’s done an excellent job of keeping the ball down since the all-star break (58.8% groundball rate in the second half) which has resulted in a 2.78 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in nine second half starts. He’ll take the mound at Wrigley today to face a Cubs team that leads MLB in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching and with 9.63 K’s/9 on the season, his ceiling is off the charts here. He’s been terrific on the road all season and is a nice option in all formats. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $7500 FD, $14450 DD, $9500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14250 FTD
- Felix Doubront – Doubront was terrific in his debut with the Cubs last week, holding the Cardinals to just one run on seven hits in seven innings of work. While he’s yet to quite put things together during his young career, Theo Epstein is obviously a believer. He’s consistently posted strong strikeout numbers over the past few season but just simply can’t seem to avoid the longball. He’ll take on a Pittsburgh team today that, despite owning several batters who mash left-handed pitching, is ranked #27 in MLB in wOBA against southpaws this season. This shift to the National League certainly can’t hurt, but there are still too many question marks to trust him in cash games. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $5900 FD, $7650 DD, $5400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $6800 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Starling Marte – While his teammate may receive all of the media attention (and rightfully so), Marte has been the most dangerous hitter on the Pirates since for over a month now. He sports a .330 batting average since returning to the club in early August from a concussion and is a lifetime .340 hitters against left-handed pitching.
Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen, Jordy Mercer, Josh Harrison
Chicago Cubs
Additional Plays: Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara