MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 12th Page Three

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-12 14:59:27

Seattle at Oakland

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez – King Felix is arguably the best pitcher in the American League and he proved in the season opener, allowing just one run on two hits over seven innings against the Angels on Monday (10K’s). He owned a 4-0 record with a 2.22 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 40 Ks his six starts against the Athletics last season. His 27.2 K% is among the games elite and when he’s not missing bats entirely, he’s usually forcing weak groundballs (56.2% GB%). This is a very patient Oakland lineup that sported MLB’s best 9.4% BB rate last season, but Felix is still a top tier option. Rating = 9

Jesse Hahn – Hahn is not yet a household name in MLB, but after a putting up a 3.07 ERA while racking up nearly a strikeout per inning during his rookie season last year, he should at least land somewhere on the fantasy radar. He was solid, yet unspectacular in his first start; allowing three runs over six innings in a 3-1 loss to the Texas Rangers. His xFIP of 3.59 hints that his success last year wasn’t a fluke, but leaving Petco Park for the American League certainly doesn’t help his fantasy outlook. The matchup across from Felix Hernandez removes him from cash game consideration for me, but he could be worth a flier in a GPP. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Lefties have had a bit more success off of Hahn thus far during his young career, and Cano is still the toughest out in this Mariners lineup. He posted a .382 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and owned a .320 batting average away from Safeco.

Secondary Plays: Kyle Seager

Oakland

There are too many nice options on the board to try and target King Felix.

Secondary Plays: None

LA Dodgers at Arizona

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Greinke – Despite allowing just one run on two hits against San Diego on Tuesday, Greinke was saddled with a loss in his first start. He’ll turn his attention to an Arizona Diamondbacks team who he absolutely dominated to the tune of a 3-0 record, 1.42 ERA and 26 K’s over 25.1 innings last season. Greinke has developed a reputation for being more hittable on the road, and that was the case last season as hitters hit .271 off of him away from Dodger Stadium last season (versus just .221 at home). There’s a small level of risk here, but he’s a strikeout per inning type of guy and still worth consideration in all formats. Rating = 7.5

Josh Collmenter – Collmenter’s 2015 debut didn’t exactly go as he had hoped as he was blasted for 10 hits and five runs in 4.2 innings against the Giants on Monday. Today he’ll take on a Dodgers team who had his number last season; hanging 14 earned runs on him in just 18.1 innings of work. Despite Chase Field being a regarded as a hitter friendly park, Collmenter thrived there in 2014; posting a 7-5 record with a 2.63 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 16 home starts. He doesn’t possess top-end strikeout potential and securing a “W” will be tough with Greinke opposing him, but Collmenter could be a sneaky GPP play. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – With 12 hits and five homeruns in the first five games, saying he’s gotten off to a hot start in 2015 would be an understatement. The matchup today is a great one for several reasons; 1) Collmenter’s weakness last season was left-handed batters (.327 wOBA against), A-Gon led MLB in RBI’s last year and posted a .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching, and 3) He’s punished Collmenter in their previous meetings, going 6 for 10 with a double and a home run off of him.

Secondary Plays: Jimmy Rollins, Carl Crawford, Yasiel Puig

Arizona

Arizona may have knocked around Clayton Kershaw last night, but Greinke is still a top-tier starting pitcher and there are just too many better matchups to exploit. The middle of the order (Goldie, Trumbo, Peralta and Lamb) are worth GPP consideration.

Secondary Plays: None

Chicago Cubs at Colorado

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Hendricks – To say Henricks rookie campaign was a success would be an understatement, as the 25-year-old posted a 7-2 record with a 2.46 ERA over 80.1 innings of work. However, he’ll head to Coors Field tonight to do battle with a Rockies team that owned MLB’s best home wOBA. His xFIP of 3.92 signals that a regression from last seasons numbers is imminent and both his modest 14.6 K% and matchup in Coors Field are both huge red flags. I’ll be staying away and I suggest you do the same. Rating = 3.5

Jordan Lyles – There’s just not too much to like about Jordan Lyles today in Coors Field. While he sported a solid 5-1 record in 10 home starts last season, don’t be fooled as he owned a 4.81 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 58 innings at Coors Field and he really struggled down the stretch; posting a 5.31 ERA after the All-Star break last season. When he’s on he’s able to induce plenty of ground balls, but his strikeout rate is far from ideal and the lack of upside makes him an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. Rating = 3.5

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo posted an impressive .391 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and lefties smacked Lyles around for a .372 wOBA in 2014. Rizzo is bound to erupt and this matchup in Coors Field feels like the right time.

Secondary Plays: Jorge Soler, Miguel Montero, Chris Coghlan

Colorado

Troy Tulowitzki – I’ll save you time and keep it short; He’s a dangerous player to fade when at Coors Field and is the clear #1 option at the shortstop position.

Justin Morneau – Morneau picked up a pair of hits yesterday and is a terrific option today on the sites where he’s still reasonably priced. The left-handed slugger posted a .400 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and owned a .327 average at Coors Field.

Secondary Plays: Corey Dickerson, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

San Francisco at San Diego

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Peavy – A lot of people (myself included) scoffed at the Giants acquisition of Peavy last summer, but the 33-year-old proved his doubters wrong by compiling a 2.17 ERA and 1.04 ERA in 12 starts with his new club. A back injury forced him out of his scheduled first start, but we’re being told he’ll be back to 100% health when he takes the mound this afternoon. He’ll take on his old team at Petco Park where he rocks a 2.74 38-27 record and 2.74 ERA over 592 career innings. He’s no longer a threat for 200 stikeouts per season and this is a much improved San Diego lineup, but Peavy may still prove to be a viable fantasy option. Rating = 5.5

Tyson Ross – Ross will toe the rubber at Petco Park for the first time this season, and considering last season’s 1.88 ERA and 106 K’s in 100.2 innings in front of the San Diego faithful, he better be on your radar today. Ross defeated these San Francisco Giants in both of their meetings last season and his 8.97 K/9 was the best of his young MLB career. Ross does an excellent job of inducing ground balls (57% GB%), and even when he does make a mistake, he’s protected by the spacious grounds of Petco Park. Rating = 7.5

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Picking players against Ross at Petco was a losing proposition all of last season and I’ll be looking for offense elsewhere.

Secondary Plays: None

San Diego

Justin Upton – Upton has picked up at least one hit in every game with his new team and has had plenty of success off of Peavy in their previous meetings, going 7 for 13 with a triple and a homerun.

Secondary Plays: Wil Myers

Boston at NY Yankees

Pitcher Grind Down

Clay Buchholz – Buchholz was terrific on opening night; tossing seven shutout innings against Philadelphia while fanning nine batters. Putting his 2013 and 2014 final stat lines next to each other pretty much tells the whole story here; Buchholz is extremely inconsistent. Buchholz was severely affected by baserunners last season as batters owned a .314 average against with runners on base and has struggled against left-handed batters in his career which could be a problem against this left-handed heavy Yankees lineup. When he’s on his game, he can be flat out dominant… but you just never know what you’re going to get. Rating = 5.5

Masahiro Tanaka – If you weren’t worried about Tanaka’s elbow entering the season, you probably should be after his season debut. He’s dangling dangerously close to Tommy John surgery and while I could rattle off plenty of his impressive 2014 stats to justify this pick, I simply don’t believe that this is the same pitcher we saw last year. The Red Sox sport a dangerous lineup and the writing appear to be on the wall regarding Tanaka. Could he pitch a gem tonight? Yes. But is it as likely as his asking price would suggest? No way. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz – Big Papi looms as Tanaka’s biggest threat in this Red Sox lineup. He posted a .364 wOBA against right-handed pitching and already owns a homerun off of Tanaka (in just seven previous AB’s).

Secondary Plays: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts

NY Yankees

Brian McCann – He’s been a frustrating player for DFSers lately, but he’s back in play once again tonight. He picked up a pair of hits in last night’s game and lefties posted a .351 wOBA against Buccholz last season.

Secondary Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez