MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 19 Page Three

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-19 23:13:00

San Diego at Chicago Cubs

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner – Cashner will take the mound at Wrigley Field against a Chicago team that traded him away to San Diego (For Anthony Rizzo) coming off a pair of unimpressive outings. A look at least season’s home vs. road splits tell you a lot about Cashner as the right-hander was dominant at Petco Park (1.43 ERA) but much more hittable outside of the pitcher haven (4.31 ERA and 1-4 road record). Despite the fact that he can throw some serious heat, the strikeout numbers just weren’t what you’d expect last season (18.4 K%) and Cashner owns an unsightly 4.78 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 37.2 career innings at Wrigley Field. He’s a top tier option in some matchups, but today is just not one of them. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8400 FD, $7700 DK, $6300 FA, $13850 DD, $103600 FF

Jon Lester – The start to the 2015 season has not gone the way the newly acquired Jon Lester had hoped as the left-hander has been smacked for nine earned runs in just 10.1 innings. However, it’s definitely not time to overreact as Lester compiled a 16-11 record and 2.46 ERA in 2014, and the move to the National League is only going to help him. While this is admittedly a much improved San Diego lineup, the Padres owned the league’s worst wOBA against left-handed pitching (.277 wOBA) in 2014. Lester is a strikeout per inning type of pitcher and It’s only a matter of time until Lester finds his groove as his 2015 xFIP of 2.41 implies that he’s simply been unlucky rather than ineffective. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $9700 FD, $9200 DK, $6950 FA, $15650 DD, $144200 FF

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Justin Upton – Lester is a tough matchup, but Upton crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .423 wOBA and .311 ISO in 2014. He’s also 5 for 7 with a pair of bombs off of the southpaw.

Secondary Plays:

Derek Norris, Matt Kemp

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Want a ride on Narrative Street? Rizzo and Cashner were traded for each other so this matchup will be an interesting one. Cashner is no pushover, but Rizzo owned a .391 wOBA against left-handed pitching and thrived at Wrigley Field, where he posted a .943 OPS.

Secondary Plays:

Jorge Soler

Arizona at San Francisco

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson blew a chance to get on track at Petco Park on Tuesday as he was knocked around for five runs in 6.2 innings against the Padres. Today he’ll get another crack at the San Francisco team that tagged him for nine hits (3 runs) in just 4.1 innings in his Arizona debut. Hellickson has never posted an xFIP below 4.00 in a full season and his declining velocity on his fastball at just 28 years old is a bit of a concern. The park shift here is a plus, and this Giants offense has yet to really get going, but he serves up a ton of fly balls and is a very risky play. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5900 FD, $6100 DK, $5500 FA, $9300 DD, $75300 FF

Tim Hudson – Old Man Hudson just seems to keep on rolling. Despite taking a loss against the Rockies on Tuesday, he fixed the command issues he flashed in the opener (5 BB against SD) and now owns a 2.03 ERA after those two starts. Hudson dominated this Arizona team in their two meetings last season, allowing just two earned runs on 10 hits (no walks) in 15.2 innings of work. With that said, Hudson’s strikeout rates are consistently ranked near the bottom of qualified pitchers and therefore he’s better served as a secondary option on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7500 FD, $6600 DK, $5500 FA, $11650 DD, $96300 FF

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Jake Lamb – Lefties posted a .331 wOBA off of Hudson in 2014 and Lamb is tearing the cover off the baseball right now. Through the first ten games, Lamb owns a .414 average and 1.204 OPS.

Secondary Plays:

David Peralta, Ender Inciarte

San Francisco

Buster Posey – I usually prefer to roll with Posey when he’s facing a lefty, but oddly enough it was right-handed batters who blasted Jeremy Hellickson last season (.356 average and .967 OPS against him). Posey has gotten out of the gates slowly, but did pick up a pair of hits in his last game.

Secondary Plays:

Nori Aoki, Angel Pagan, Brandon Belt

Texas at Seattle

Pitcher Grind Down

Ross Detwiler – The move to the American League has not been too kind to Detwiler as he’s been pounded for 13 runs in just 10 innings of work in his first two starts with the Rangers. The matchup today in Safeco Field against a Mariners team that owned the second worst wOBA against left-handed pitching last season (.284 wOBA) is a good one, but I won’t be taking the bait. The 2015 version of the Mariners is much more dangerous against left-handed pitching and Detwiler has never posted a over 5.75 K/9 in any of his six season at the MLB level. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5700 FD, $4700 DK, $4500 FA, $8500 DD, $75000 FF

James Paxton – When healthy, Paxton shined last year; posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in his 13 starts. The big left-hander has all the tools to become a top-of-the-rotation pitcher for the Mariners, but is still working on developing his secondary pitches. Paxton hasn’t had his best stuff in his first two starts, but he dominated the Rangers in two meetings last season, allowing just one run in 12.2 innings. He’s able to produce a large quantity of soft, ground-ball outs (54.8 GB% last year) and his mid 90’s fastball is reason to be optimistic that he’ll improve upon last season’s 7.18 K/9. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6600 FD, $7200 DK, $6000 FA, $12250 DD, $100000 FF

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Adrian Beltre – Beltre has been ice-cold at the plate, but he’s still my favorite option from this Texas lineup today. The slugger posted a .421 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and has reached base in three of his five prior plate appearances against Paxton.

Secondary Plays:

Jake Smolinski, Elvis Andrus

Seattle

Nelson Cruz – I absolutely love Cruz tonight for several reasons; 1) We can hop on the Narrative Street train here as he takes on his former team, 2) Right handers smacked Ross Detwiler for a .368 wOBA, and 3) Nelson Cruz annihilated left-handed pitching last season to the tune of a .416 wOBA and .255 ISO.

Secondary Plays:

Austin Jackson, Rickie Weeks

Colorado at LA Dodgers

Pitcher Grind Down

Eddie Butler – As a former first-round pick, Butler is a highly touted prospect for the Rockies and he’s had success in his first two starts this season. With that said, his xFIP on those two starts sits a 5.88 and a WHIP of 1.73 is a healthy sign that the 1.64 ERA is simply smoke-and-mirrors. Butler has the ability to rack up ground-ball outs, but his he’s shown very little strikeout ability (even in the minor league’s) and is hard to get excited about him until we see an extended period of improved results. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6700 FD, $4600 DK, $4550 FA, $8500 DD, $70000 FF

• Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy has been frustrating to watch this season; at times he looks way too hittable, but at others he’s simply nasty. He may sport an ugly 6.75 ERA on the young season, but he’s also racked up 19 strikeouts in just 12 innings of work. After a brutal first half to the season in 2014, McCarthy was terrific down the stretch and posted a 7-5 record with a 3.01 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 13 starts after the all-star break. His 2014 xFIP of 2.87 suggests that good things are coming and tonight’s matchup against a Colorado team that owned MLB’s second worst road wOBA (.282 wOBA) last season is a plus. There is some risk here, but it’s out weighed by his upside. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7900 FD, $8000 DK, $6250 FA, $13900 DD, $106600 FF

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The usual suspects are in play here, but McCarthy is better than the numbers indicate and it’s hard to pay up for these Rockies bats away from Coors Field.

Secondary Plays:

Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Justin Morneau

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – With an inexperienced righty on the mound for Colorado, Gonzalez is a top tier option at 1B. The left-handed slugger posted a .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and has picked up at least one hit in every single game this season.

Secondary Plays:

Yasiel Puig, Jimmy Rollins, Andre Ethier

Cincinnati at St. Louis

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Leake – Leake is very much a serviceable starter for the Reds as he’s posted xFIP’s south of 4.00 in each of the last four years. With that said, his middling 6.89 K/9 last season was the best rate of his career and he hasn’t been that sharp in his first two outings. Leake squared off against this Cardinals team on five occasions last season with solid results; a 2-2 record with a 3.66 ERA and 26 strikeouts in 32 innings. He forced a ton of ground balls last season (53.5 GB%) and should be able to avoid big trouble against this St. Louis team that hasn’t flashed much power in recent years, but his ceiling is not nearly as high as many of the other options on the board today. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7100 FD, $6900 DK, $5500 FA, $12000 DD, $94700 FF

Adam Wainwright – On the surface, his first two starts of the season look solid; but Wainwright hasn’t looked to be in mid-season form yet and he really had to battle in both games. Today he’ll turn his attention to a familiar foe, and one who he absolutely dominated in 2014, winning both starts against them while holding the Cincinnati Reds scoreless over 15 innings and striking out 21 batters. Waino owns a 62-36 record with a 2.75 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 112 career starts at Busch Stadium and the Cardinals are confident that a (now corrected) elbow issue was the cause for his reduced strikeout rate last season. He’s a nice option in all formats. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9400 FD, $9500 DK, $7200 FA, $17900 DD, $152300 FF

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter – Carpenter is flat-out locked in at the plate right now. The Cardinals leadoff man has picked up a pair of hits in each of the last five games and is now hitting .390 on the young season. Lefties tagged Mike Leake for a .357 wOBA last season and Carpenter posted a .343 wOBA against righties.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Adams, Kolten Wong, Jason Heyward