MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 26th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
Subscribe to our daily newsletter and lineup alerts for the most up-to-date DFS MLB news.
Cleveland at Detroit
| Cleveland | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Carlos Carrasco |  | Kyle Lobstein | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-117) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.192 | 0.516 | 0.236 | 25.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.620 | 0.274 | 21.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.221 | 0.566 | 0.252 | 27.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.686 | 0.301 | 14.20% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Carlos Carrasco – The last two starts have been a bit of a disaster for Carrasco. First he was hit in the jaw by a come-backer during the first inning of his start against the White Sox, and then he was removed from his last start with “tightness” after five very strong innings. While the “tightness” word has been downplayed by the Indians leading up to this start, it’s definitely lingering as a potential red flag. However, Carrasco broke out in a big way last season; posting a 2.55 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with an elite 26.5 K% over 134 innings and certainly hasn’t disappointed when on the mound in 2015. He’ll head to Detroit today to square off against a very formidable Tigers lineup that posted MLB’s second best home wOBA last season (.339 wOBA) but he faced little resistance from them in 18 innings of work last season (3.00 ERA and 24 strikeouts). Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8800 FD, $9000 DK, $6850 FA, $ Vic, $15850 DD, $111000 FF
Kyle Lobstein – Lobstein has proven to be a serviceable starting option for the Tigers thus far in his short MLB career, but not an overly appealing fantasy option. He owns a respectable 4.11 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through his first 50.1 innings of work at the big league level, but modest strikeout rate (6.18 K/9 last season) and often erratic command are both areas of concern. Lobstein is your prototypical soft-tossing left-hander and relies on his movement and varying pitch speeds to be successful. While this may be a very left-handed loaded Indians lineup in general, they have several very capable bats against southpaws. He’s not the worst play on the board, but not on my radar today. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6000 FD, $5700 DK, $4750 FA, $ Vic, $8500 DD, $75000 FF
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – Santana’s .381 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season led this Cleveland team and the powerful switch hitter has gone 3 for 7 with a home run off of Lobstein in their previous meetings.
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Raburn, Jerry Sands
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – The Indians wanted nothing to do with Miggy in yesterday’s game as they issued the former Triple Crown winner four free passes. Cabrera owned a .407 wOBA at Comerica Park last season and has had success against Carrasco in the past (6 for 18 with a home run).
Secondary Plays:
J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez, Anthony Gose
Toronto at Tampa Bay
| Toronto | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Mark Buehrle |  | Chris Archer | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-150) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.718 | 0.318 | 14.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.624 | 0.283 | 21.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.289 | 0.752 | 0.332 | 13.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.685 | 0.307 | 20.80% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | TB BvP | TB vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mark Buehrle – Don’t over-think this one. Buerhle is exactly who we think he is; an innings-eating left-hander who will consistently keep the Blue Jays in games hopefully long enough for their explosive lineup to get him a “W”. Look at his game log this season, all three games are almost identical. He’s posted an xFIP between 4.09 and 4.49 in each of the last six seasons and has never topped 6.14 K/9 in a full season during his lengthy career. The matchup against the Rays isn’t terrifying, but even his best starts are rarely anything to write home about from a fantasy perspective. He’s an option as a second (preferably third) arm on multi-pitcher sites, but nothing more. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $7700 FD, $6700 DK, $5650 FA, $ Vic, $11600 DD, $103400 FF
Chris Archer – Archer was the tough luck loser in his last start against the Red Sox (one unearned run against him), but it also marked the third straight start for the 26 year old without allowing an earned run. Archer enters today’s game sporting a ridiculous 1.07 ERA and 0.83 WHIP and has already fanned 30 batters in 25.1 innings. The 26-year-old owns a career 3.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP and is armed with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s. He has (and has shown) all the tools to be great, and while the Blue Jays represent a very tough task for any pitcher, Archer only allowed four baserunners in seven scoreless innings against them last week (while striking out 11 hitters). There aren’t a ton of obvious pitching options on this slate, so he’s a fine option in all formats despite his propensity for the occasional “blow-up”. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $8500 FD, $8900 DK, $7000 FA, $ Vic, $16450 DD, $119700 FF
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Devon Travis – Considering his low asking price on many sites, Travis is my favorite option here. The 24 year old entered the season as one of the most highly regarded prospects in the Blue Jays system and he’s shown why thus far by hitting .383 and smacking five home runs. He has at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 games and is thriving in that #2 spot in this dangeorus lineup
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – Longoria exploded for four hits in yesterday’s game and now enters today’s battle against Mark Buehrle sporting a .915 OPS against left-handed pitching during his career.
Secondary Plays:
Desmond Jennings, Steven Souza
Washington at Miami
| Washington | Miami | ||||||||
 | Gio Gonzalez |  | Dan Haren | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-105) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.628 | 0.284 | 27.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.665 | 0.290 | 23.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.653 | 0.293 | 24.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.273 | 0.771 | 0.333 | 14.00% |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Gio Gonzalez – After a couple shaky performances to open the season, Gio had his best outing of the young season his last time out as he held the St. Louis Cardinals scoreless over six innings of work. Gio was terrific last season as he posted a 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.19 K/9 over 158.2 innings and the fact that it may have been his “worse” season since 2009 says a lot . Gio’s control problems can get him into trouble at times (and tend to run up his pitch count quickly, as well) but the southpaw dominated this Marlins team last season (2-0 record with a 1.38 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in two starts). He’s a high strikeout type of pitcher and this is a strikeout prone Miami team, so he can be deployed in all formats. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8400 FD, $8700 DK, $6500 FA, $ Vic, $16550 DD, $115600 FF
Dan Haren – Haren has served up long-balls at an alarming rate in each of the last three seasons, but his otherwise he’s still been a very serviceable pitcher. Things have been no different to start the 2015 season as Haren enters today’s game sporting a very nice 3.32 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, but has also been taken deep on five occasions in just 19 innings. He’s relies heavily on a his nasty cutter, but his rapidly declining fastball velocity is concerning and is also a likely reason why his 2014 strikeout rate was his lowest since his first full season in the big leagues (2005). There are enough red flags here for me to be gun-shy, but he’s more than capable of being on a winning GPP roster. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $7000 DK, $5700 FA, $ Vic, $13900 DD, $100000 FF
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Jayson Werth – It was right-handed bats that caused Haren problems last season, as they posted a .333 wOBA against him. Werth has gotten out of the gates slowly this season but he had two hits in yesterday’s game and has smacked Haren around for five hits (including a double and a home run) in ten previous at bats.
Secondary Plays:
Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Denard Span
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton went 3 for 3 with a double, a home run, three runs scored and a walk last night. If that wasn’t enough, he posted a ridiculous .453 wOBA and .287 ISO last season against left-handed pitching.
Secondary Plays:
Martin Prado, Mike Morse
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
| Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Jake Arrieta |  | Anthony DeSclafani | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.195 | 0.554 | 0.251 | 29.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.319 | 0.892 | 0.391 | 19.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.204 | 0.521 | 0.234 | 25.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.710 | 0.307 | 16.20% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jake Arrieta – The shift to the National League did wonders for Arrieta, as the right-hander posted a Cy Young worthy 2014 campaign that saw him go 10-5 with a 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9.59 K/9 in 25 starts. He’s hit the ground running against this year by posting a 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through his first three starts. Arrieta developed a new cut-finger fastball that has caused opposing batters all kinda of trouble, and he’s now turning to his new weapon in 33% of his pitches. Cincinnati owned just a .293 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and Arrieta was terrific against them last season; holding them to a 1.45 batting average and striking out 30 batters in 20 innings. There aren’t a ton of “aces” on the board today which cements Arrieta as one of the best options. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $9600 FD, $9000 DK, $6850 FA, $ Vic, $16100 DD, $153000 FF
Anthony DeSclafani – DeSclafani has been dominant in each of his last two starts as he’s tossed 15 scoreless innings while allowing just two hits in each game. He’ll bring a 0.86 ERA and 0.38 WHIP into today’s game against the Cubs, and while that’s definitely not sustainable, his 3.82 xFIP is still quite impressive for the 25-year-old. This Cubs team was one of the ones he mowed down last week, but we’ve seen Chicago’s offense get rolling lately (thanks, Kris Bryant). I’m not sold on DeSclafani just yet and will reserve any exposure I have to him for GPPs. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7800 FD, $6100 DK, $5500 FA, $ Vic, $8550 DD, $60800 FF
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo – Granted it’s a small sample size, but left-handed batters own a .333 average and .893 OPS against DeSclafani in his career and Rizzo is the most dangerous left-handed bat in this lineup. Rizzo went 3 for 4 with a home run in his last game and has picked up 10 hits during his current five game hitting streak.
Secondary Plays:
Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler
Cincinnati
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton
Boston at Baltimore
| Boston | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Wade Miley |  | Bud Norris | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS (-119) | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.727 | 0.326 | 19.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.753 | 0.333 | 19.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.751 | 0.331 | 21.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.659 | 0.296 | 21.70% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Wade Miley – Miley was absolutely blasted by the Nationals on Tax Day, but bounced back nicely in his last start, tossing 5.2 shutout innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. After two straight sub 3.55 ERA seasons in 2012 and 2013, the southpaw took a step backward last season as he posted a 4.34 ERA and 1.40 ERA in 201.1 innings. His over-the-top delivery creates a lot of ground balls and last season’s 8.18 K/9 was the best of his young career. His control can get him into trouble at times and this Orioles team smacked more home runs than any other team in MLB last season, so he’s probably better served for GPP use. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7300 FD, $6400 DK, $5650 FA, $ Vic, $12250 DD, $84200 FF
Bud Norris – To say Norris was shelled in his last start would be an understatement as he was pounded for nine earned runs in Toronto on Tuesday. He sports an abysmal 17.42 ERA and 2.32 WHIP on the young season, but he’s destined to get things turned around. Norris posted a solid 15-8 record last season with a solid 3.65 ERA and thrived at Camden Yards where he owned an 8-2 record with a 2.44 ERA in 13 home starts. This is a dangerous Boston lineup but Norris did pitch quite well against them in both meetings last season. I expect him to bounce back from his terrible start, but i’m not that confident it’ll start today. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6400 FD, $6600 DK, $5250 FA, $ Vic, $9250 DD, $81100 FF
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Hanley Ramirez – If you’re a fan of BvsP, then Hanley should be on your radar for sure as he’s 6 for 12 with a double and a home run in his previous meetings against Bud Norris. He’s posted back-to-back multi-hit games and owns a .409 average and 1.140 OPS over the last week.
Secondary Plays:
David Ortiz
Baltimore
Adam Jones – Adam Jones destroyed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .434 wOBA and .260 ISO last season and enters today’s game sporting a .403 batting average on the young season.
Secondary Plays:
Steve Pearce, Everth Cabrera