MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 10 - Page Three

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-05-10 18:46:36

Miami at San Francisco – 4:05 PM EST

Miami					San Francisco
			Mat Latos					Ryan Vogelsong
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-113)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.233	0.609	0.271	0.177	SP vs. Left	0.282	0.787	0.346	0.204
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.691	0.306	0.176	SP vs. Right	0.219	0.675	0.301	0.184
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	SF BvP		SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mat Latos – Latos will likely spend the rest of the first half of the season trying to recover from his abysmal 2015 debut, but he’s at least been much more effective in the five starts since. His last outing was arguably his best of the season thus far, but the five free passes he issued are definitely a concern. Gone are the days of Latos reaching the mid-90’s with his fastball and his strikeout rate continues to dip with his velocity. The matchup in spacious AT&T Park isn’t terrible, but Latos is still a risky option. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $7500 DK

Ryan Vogelsong – As soon as I was ready to write off Vogelsong completely, he tosses seven shutout innings against the Padres in his last start. Despite that terrific outing, he still sports an ugly 6.84 ERA and 1.67 WHIP this season and he’s serving up a ton of fly balls. The Marlins lineup is not overly intimidating (Stanton, aside), but Vogelsong’s modest strikeout numbers just aren’t good enough to offset the risk created from his inconsistency. He’s worth a look as a GPP flier, but won’t sniff my cash game rosters. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $6000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Dee Gordon – Gordon has been the game’s best leadoff man so far in 2015 as the speedster owns a. 437 batting average and .461 OBP to go along with his 12 stolen bases. He’s 10 for 29 in his career against Vogelsong.

Secondary Plays:

Giancarlo Stanton: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.391 wOBA: 0.262 ISO: 150 wRC+

Christian Yelich: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.334 wOBA: 0.116 ISO: 112 wRC+

San Francisco

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.366 wOBA: 0.164 ISO: 141 wRC+

Angel Pagan: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.35 wOBA: 0.082 ISO: 129 wRC+

LA Dodgers at Colorado – 4:10 PM EST

LA Dodgers					Colorado
			Clayton Kershaw					Jorge De La Rosa
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.190	0.477	0.215	0.315	SP vs. Left	0.194	0.532	0.241	0.241
SP vs. Right	0.195	0.531	0.237	0.32	SP vs. Right	0.244	0.76	0.336	0.163
Batter Splits	LA BvP		LA vs L		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Kershaw – With last night’s game PPD’d, Kershaw will be forced to wait an extra day to try to get things back on track this season. He’s the best pitcher in the game, but the matchup in Coors Field is just not the right time to pay his big-ticket asking price in cash games. He’s more than capable of pitching a gem everytime he takes the mound, but this is one of the few times this season where I’m not heavily targeting him in cash games. Rating = 7

Salaries: $11200 FD, $12400 DK

Jorge De La Rosa – It’s been a rough start to the 2015 season for De La Rosa as the left-hander brings a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP into today’s start against the Dodgers. De La Rosa was oddly much more successful at Coors Field last season, where he owned a 10-2 record with a 3.08 ERA in 15 starts. He’ll face a Dodgers team that owns an MLB best .356 team wOBA this season and who have plenty of batters who hammer left-handed pitching. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $6900 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Scott Van Slyke – This is the ideal spot to roll with Van Slyke. He’s still reasonably priced across the industry and posted a .447 wOBA and .315 ISO against left-handed pitching last season.

Secondary Plays:

Justin Turner: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.393 wOBA: 0.204 ISO: 159 wRC+

Chris Heisey: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.289 wOBA: 0.193 ISO: 69 wRC+

Howie Kendrick: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.315 wOBA: 0.128 ISO: 140 wRC+

Colorado

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Troy Tulowitzki: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.404 wOBA: 0.436 ISO: 248 wRC+

San Diego at Arizona – 4:10 PM EST

San Diego					Arizona
			Andrew Cashner					Daniel Hudson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.236	0.675	0.294	0.191	SP vs. Left	AVG	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Right	0.226	0.573	0.256	0.177	SP vs. Right	AVG	OPS	wOBA	K%
Batter Splits					Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner – Cashner may sport a 1-5 record on the young season, but it’s not a reflection of how well he’s pitched. The hard-throwing right-hander owns a solid 3.16 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 37 innings through his first six starts. However, he’s been far more productive at Petco Park recently and today’s park shift to Chase Field is about as drastic as it gets in MLB these days (with the exception of Coors Field). The flamethrower can rack up strikeouts just about as well as anyone, but this is not the matchup that makes me excited to pay his rather expensive asking price. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8400 FD, $7700 DK

No Pitcher Announced

Daniel Hudson – Hudson hasn’t started a big league game since 2012, but thanks to injuries, weather postponements and other oddities on the Diamondbacks schedule (and the schedules of their minor league affiliate in Reno), he’ll be pressed into duty as the starter today. The right-hander logged 222 innings in 2011, with a respectable FIP just above 3, but has barely seen the mound since. He’ll likely give way to lefty Andrew Chafin or righty Randall Delgado at some point early in this one, and Arizona will peice together a full game from what they’ve got on hand. Ignore completely, and feel free to use any Padres you deem fit. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Justin Upton, Wil Myers and the other top San Diego bats are in play today, assuming they’re in the lineup (which has yet to be released, even early in the afternoon). The mash-up of Arizona releivers should not pose a threat to their production.

Secondary Plays:

See above.

Arizona

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.386 wOBA: 0.249 ISO: 144 wRC+

David Peralta: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.369 wOBA: 0.194 ISO: 132 wRC+

Oakland at Seattle – 4:10 PM EST

Oakland					Seattle
			Jesse Chavez					Felix Hernandez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-172)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.245	0.663	0.299	0.194	SP vs. Left	0.200	0.518	0.233	0.255
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.73	0.321	0.251	SP vs. Right	0.195	0.584	0.259	0.295
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jesse Chavez – Chavez spent the first six years of his career pitching exclusively out of the bullpen, but he took full advantage of the opportunity to move into a starter’s role when given the chance last season. He started 2015 pitching out of the bullpen once again, but after the Athletics optioned Kendall Graveman to AAA, he’s been thrown back into the starting rotation. He owns a strikeout per inning thus far this season and posted a solid 8.38 K/9 last year. Opposing King Felix is obviously not ideal, but Chavez has proven to be quite reliable for the Athletics. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7400 FD, $6700 DK

Felix Hernandez – The King has lived up to his nickname thus far in 2015, posting a 5-0 record with a 1.73 ERA and 0.84 ERA through his first six starts. His strikeout rate is right on pace with where it’s been sitting for several years (9.50K/9) and he’s been a ground ball machine (62.67 GB%) thus far. This pesky Oakland lineup are the only ones to prevent him from picking up a “W” this season, but Felix made easy work of them last season, going 4-0 with a 2.22 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six starts. There aren’t many aces on the board today, and considering Felix’s recent domination at Safeco Field, he’s my favorite option. Rating = 9

Salaries: $11300 FD, $11700 DK

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Stephen Vogt: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.337 wOBA: 0.148 ISO: 119 wRC+

Josh Reddick: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.367 wOBA: 0.239 ISO: 140 wRC+

Seattle

Nelson Cruz – Tiny sample size alert, but Cruz is 3 for 5 with a double and two homeruns off of Chavez in his career. He leads the league with 14 home runs this season and has already driven in 27 runs. He’s had a pair of hits in three straight games and should be well worth his high asking price.

Secondary Plays:

Robinson Cano: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.382 wOBA: 0.166 ISO: 151 wRC+

Kyle Seager: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.376 wOBA: 0.221 ISO: 147 wRC+

Kansas City at Detroit – 8:05 PM EST

Kansas City					Detroit
			Jason Vargas					Shane Greene
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.266	0.661	0.296	0.160	SP vs. Left	0.281	0.765	0.345	0.166
SP vs. Right	0.265	0.73	0.321	0.163	SP vs. Right	0.240	0.661	0.297	0.311
Batter Splits	KC BvP		KC vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Young – With Vargas headed to the DL, the Royals will turn to Chris Young to make a start tonight against the Tigers. The tall right-handed somehow managed to post a 12-9 record with a 3.65 ERA in 29 starts last season despite owning an atrocious 5.19 xFIP. Young serves up an insane amount of fly balls (22.3 GB% last season) which could turn very ugly, very quick for him tonight against this powerful Detroit lineup. Young is off to another strong start this season, but owned a 5.03 ERA and 1.51 WHIP during his 15 road starts last season and owned just 5.89 K/9 in 2014. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $6500 DK

Shane Greene – Greene’s strong start with his new team has quickly taken a turn for the worse as the Tigers pitcher has been blasted in each of his last three starts and now owns a 5.56 ERA and 1.35 WHIP after six starts. The Royals own a .336 team wOBA against right-handed pitching and once again are the hardest team in MLB to strikeout (15.1 K% this season). Greene’s 9.27 K/9 in 2014 makes him a viable GPP candidate, but his recent performance and a very tough matchup both remove him from cash game consideration for me. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7200 FD, $4500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Eric Hosmer – With two hits yesterday, Hosmer extended his hitting streak to six games and now owns a .322 average and .946 OPS on the season. He owned a .321 wOBA off of right-handed pitching in 2014 and his five home runs already may be a sign that his power is starting to develop.

Secondary Plays:

Alex Gordon: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.345 wOBA: 0.154 ISO: 121 wRC+

Detroit

Miguel Cabrera – Miggy’s bat has cooled off a bit lately, but with Chris Young on the bump for the Royals tonight, he’s one of my favorite 1B to target. He owns a .333 average and .986 OPS on the season and is hitting .341 off of right-handed pitching.

Secondary Plays:

Victor Martinez: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.39 wOBA: 0.199 ISO: 152 wRC+

Anthony Gose: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.295 wOBA: 0.074 ISO: 84 wRC+

J.D. Martinez: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.379 wOBA: 0.205 ISO: 144 wRC+

Yoenis Cespedes: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.337 wOBA: 0.187 ISO: 117 wRC+

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