MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 10th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-05-12 16:54:09

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

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Baltimore at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM EST

Baltimore					NY Yankees
			Bud Norris					Michael Pineda
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY (-162)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.753	0.333	19.0%	SP vs. Left	0.195	0.534	0.233	20.90%
SP vs. Right	0.224	0.659	0.296	21.7%	SP vs. Right	0.201	0.517	0.230	19.70%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Bud Norris – Norris allowed three runs over seven innings against the Mets in his last start, and unfortunately for him, it also happened to be his best start of the young season. Norris will take the mound at Yankee Stadium owning an ugly 9.75 ERA and 1.75 WHIP and he didn’t have too much success against this Yankees lineup when they squared off last month. Norris was much less effective away from Camden Yards last season (4.80 ERA during 15 road starts) and his struggles against left-handed batters will be on full display today against this very left-handed heavy New York lineup. He’s a better pitcher than this seasons’ numbers indicate, but he’s not on my radar today. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6700 FD, $6400 DK

Michael Pineda – Injuries have consistently de-railed Pineda’s success this far, but he finally looks healthy and the Yankees are reaping the benefits. The 26-year-old owns an impressive 4-0 record with a 2.97 ERA and 1.04 WHIP through his first six starts of 2015 and his 2.65 xFIP implies that his success should be taken very seriously. Pineda is forcing a ton of ground balls this season (54% GB%) while also maintaining nearly a strikeout per inning pace and sporting just a 0.69 BB/9. He was sensational in his last outing, shutting out the Toronto Blue Jays over eight frames. This is a dangerous Baltimore lineup that knocked him around a bit in their first meeting, but Pineda owns a ridiculous 1.83 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in his nine career starts at Yankee Stadium. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8800 FD, $8100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Adam Jones: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.31 wOBA: 0.165 ISO: 95 wRC+

Chris Davis: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.312 wOBA: 0.199 ISO: 97 wRC+

Jimmy Paredes: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.303 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 91 wRC+

NY Yankees

Carlos Beltran – Beltran may be hitting just .194 without a home run on the season, but the veteran switch-hitter is starting to show signs of life at the plate. Beltran posted a .343 wOBA and .192 ISO against right-handed pitching last season and lefties owned a .333 wOBA off of Norris in 2014. Beltran is also 10 for 29 with six doubles off of Norris in their previous meetings.

Secondary Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.312 wOBA: 0.137 ISO: 97 wRC+

Brett Gardner: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.34 wOBA: 0.197 ISO: 116 wRC+

Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST

Boston					Toronto
			Clay Buchholz					R.A. Dickey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-119)					9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.281	0.793	0.351	17.1%	SP vs. Left	0.220	0.665	0.300	17.60%
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.696	0.308	18.9%	SP vs. Right	0.240	0.736	0.324	20.00%
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Clay Buchholz – On the surface, Buchholz’ 6.03 ERA and 1.60 WHIP look incredibly unappealing, but I’m not ready to write him off entirely here. Through six starts, he owns an unsustainable .404 BABIP and his 2.99 xFIP suggest he’s been victimized by some bad luck. Buchholz’ 27.4 K% also ranks him among the game’s elite pitchers. With all of that said, this is a very lethal Toronto lineup and he failed to make it out of the third inning when these two teams squared off last week. Toronto also abused him in their six meetings last season and therefore Buchholz is a GPP only option for me today. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7900 FD, $6600 DK

R.A. Dickey – While Dickey’s knuckleball really kept the Yankees off balance in his last start (8 IP, 1 ER, 3 Hits and 3 BB), it’s slightly concerning that he failed to record a single strikeout. Dickey really pitched well against this Boston team last season, but the Red Sox lineup is much more formidable in 2015 and several of their key hitters have really pounded Dickey in the past. He’s thrown his knuckleball 87% of the time this season and you never really know what you’re going to get from him. He’s worth a GPP flier, but there’s too much uncertainty to feel good about using him in cash games. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7700 FD, $6800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Boston

David Ortiz – Ortiz has not seemed to be fooled by Dickey’s knuckleball in the past, as Big Papi is 8 for 21 with two doubles and two home runs against him during his career. Big Papi owned a .364 wOBA and .248 ISO against right-handed pitching last season and his early season struggles has made him extremely affordable.

Secondary Plays:

Xander Bogaerts: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.278 wOBA: 0.105 ISO: 72 wRC+

Hanley Ramirez: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.355 wOBA: 0.156 ISO: 131 wRC+

Mookie Betts: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.358 wOBA: 0.153 ISO: 127 wRC+

Toronto

Russell Martin – Martin is one of my favorite catchers to target today as he extended his hitting streak to nine games yesterday and has now raised his batting average over .100 points since the beginning of the month. He’s had success off of Buchholz in the past and owns a .356 average at the Rogers Centre this season.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Bautista: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.387 wOBA: 0.227 ISO: 148 wRC+

Edwin Encarnacion: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.392 wOBA: 0.291 ISO: 152 wRC+

Devon Travis

Minnesota at Cleveland – 1:10 PM EST

Minnesota					Cleveland
			Trevor May					Danny Salazar
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE (-156)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.298	0.892	0.393	21.7%	SP vs. Left	0.244	0.695	0.309	27.10%
SP vs. Right	0.324	0.907	0.394	19.8%	SP vs. Right	0.284	0.786	0.342	24.10%
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R		Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor May – May was dreadful in his limited opportunities as a rookie last season, but he’s pitched admirably so far during his sophomore campaign. While his 4.15 ERA and 1.38 WHIP aren’t much to write home about, his 3.80 xFIP is evidence that he’s starting to put things together. May posted a very respectable 8.67 K/9 last season, but his inconsistent (AKA: bad) command led him into trouble frequently. He’s shown better control thus far in 2015 and he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in a start since his season opener. May cruised to an easy victory against this Cleveland team when they met last month and possesses at least enough upside to be considered as a viable GPP flier. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6300 FD, $5900 DK

Danny Salazar – Salazar is still a work in progress, but he’s been awfully impressive thus far in 2015. Through four starts the 25-year-old sports a 3-1 record with a solid 3.81 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and has racked up 37 strikeouts in just 26 innings. While he really seems to have fixed some of the control problems that plagued him in the past (4.7 BB%), he’s still being burned by the long-ball. He’s armed with a fastball that can reach the upper-90’s and his 2.16 xFIP is extremely promising. This Twins lineup has caught fire recently, but they’re still not overly intimidating and Salazar made fairly easy work of them to open the 2015 season. There’s some risk here, but it’s outweighed by his massive upside. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7800 FD, $8600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

This Twins’ lineup has been scorching hot, but none of them stand out an elite play today.

Secondary Plays:

Brian Dozier: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.335 wOBA: 0.161 ISO: 114 wRC+

Torii Hunter: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.33 wOBA: 0.164 ISO: 110 wRC+

Kennys Vargas: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.387 wOBA: 0.252 ISO: 151 wRC+

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – With two more hits yesterday, Brantley now owns a nine-game hitting streak and has raised his average to .344 on the season. He pounded right-handed pitching to the tune of a .401 wOBA last season and batted .353 at Progressive Field.

Secondary Plays:

Lonnie Chisenhall: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.344 wOBA: 0.165 ISO: 124 wRC+

Carlos Santana: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.34 wOBA: 0.195 ISO: 121 wRC+

Jason Kipnis: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.318 wOBA: 0.117 ISO: 106 wRC+

Texas at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM EST

Texas					Tampa Bay
			Wandy Rodriguez					Jake Odorizzi
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TBR (0)					0.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.226	0.663	0.294	28.80%
SP vs. Right	0.313	1.087	0.463	16.0%	SP vs. Right	0.252	0.726	0.324	19.10%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	TB BvP		TB vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Wandy Rodriguez – Wandy turned back the clock in his last outing, as he tossed eight innings of one-run ball against his former team. When healthy, Wandy has been a very serviceable pitcher throughout his career and the soft-tossing lefty owns a 4.61 xFIP this season and failed a team physical with Philadelphia just four months ago. His last start shows his potential to still toss a gem, but he’s a very risky cash game option even considering the decent matchup against Tampa. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $6200 DK

Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi was a late scratch from his start yesterday with flu-like symptoms, but all signs from Tampa camp are that he’s back to 100% for today’s start. The 25-year-old has been terrific this season, posting a 3-2 record with a 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through his first six starts. He owned a very solid 3.90 xFIP with 9.32 K/9 in 2014, so this success should be taken very seriously. Odorizzi thrived at Tropicana Field last season where he owned a 2.62 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and fanned 102 batters in 99.2 innings. The matchup against the Rangers is a nice one and he’s one of my favorite pitchers on the board in the mid-tier price range. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8700 FD, $7200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Texas

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Prince Fielder: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.301 wOBA: 0.078 ISO: 86 wRC+

Adrian Beltre: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.366 wOBA: 0.16 ISO: 131 wRC+

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – Longo’s slow start to the 2015 season is officially over. The Rays slugger has picked up hits in five straight games and has gone deep three times over the last three games. He owns a .292 average and .927 OPS during his career against left-handed pitching and is 3 for 8 with a home run in his previous meetings with Wandy Rodriguez.

Secondary Plays:

Brandon Guyer: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.296 wOBA: 0.099 ISO: 126 wRC+

Steven Souza

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM EST

NY Mets					Philadelphia
			Bartolo Colon					Chad Billingsley
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-143)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.260	0.681	0.299	16.9%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.755	0.331	18.9%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Bartolo Colon – With Dillon Gee headed to the DL, Colon will have his next start bumped up a day and will now square off against the Phillies tonight rather than Cubbies on Monday. Colon has pitched at least six full innings in each of his six starts this season and owns an impressive 2.90 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through 40.1 innings. He racked up nine strikeouts against the Orioles in his last start and should have success against this Phillies team that owns the league’s worst wOBA against right-handed pitching this season (.255 wOBA). Keep your expectations in check, but he’s a terrific option as a secondary arm on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8700 FD, $7300 DK

Chad Billingsley – Billingsley made his first start in over two years on Tuesday night, and it went just about as poorly as I had expected as he was knocked around for six runs in five innings of work against the Atlanta Braves. He owned an uninspiring 4.74 ERA in his four starts at AAA Lehigh prior to returning to the Phillies and he’s no longer a strikeout-per-inning type of pitcher. The home matchup against the Mets is a plus, but he’s way too risky for cash game use. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5300 FD, $6900 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Lucas Duda – He may be better served as a GPP play, but I really like Duda today against Billingsley despite his cold bat. Duda posted a .394 wOBA and .270 ISO against right-handed pitching last season and Billingsley looked very hittable in his first start this season.

Secondary Plays:

Curtis Granderson: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.316 wOBA: 0.159 ISO: 105 wRC+

Daniel Murphy: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.328 wOBA: 0.12 ISO: 113 wRC+

Philadelphia

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Ryan Howard: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.292 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 84 wRC+

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