MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 24 - Page Two
Milwaukee at Atlanta – 1:35 PM EST
| Milwaukee | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Jimmy Nelson |  | Michael Foltynewicz | ||||||
| RIGHT | Right | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIL (-125) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.82 | 0.356 | 0.182 | SP vs. Left | 0.36 | 0 | 0.463 | 0.129 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.701 | 0.314 | 0.212 | SP vs. Right | 0.217 | 0.602 | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jimmy Nelson – After obliterating AAA batters last season (1.46 ERA in 16 starts), Nelson struggled a bit once he hit the Big League’s last season. However he brings a solid 3.73 ERA and 1.11 WHIP into today’s game against the Braves, and if you throw out one horrendous start against the Reds earlier this season, he owns a terrific 2.61 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP in his other seven starts. Like most young pitchers, Nelson struggles with his control at times and is prone to occasional blowup innings, but he has the pedigree to be an excellent pitcher for years to come in Milwaukee and has flashed elite strikeout upside. The matchup in Atlanta isn’t terrible, but I’d prefer to keep my exposure to Nelson limited to GPP’s at this point in his career. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7000 FD, $7600 DK
Michael Foltynewicz – The former first-round pick of the Houston Astros owned an unsightly 5.08 ERA over 102.2 innings at AAA Oklahoma City last season, but nonetheless injuries to the Atlanta rotation has thrust him into a starter’s role at the MLB level this season. He’s shown flashes of brilliance during his first four starts, but control issues have led to both an unhealthy number of fly balls (28.1 GB%) as well as an ugly 4.50 BB/9. The home matchup tonight against the Brewers is a nice one, and his 22.6 K% is promising, but it’s way too risky to view Foltynewicz as anything other than a GPP flier. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6900 FD, $5900 DK
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Adam Lind – (LHB) – Lind has been quiet lately, but with an inexperienced right-hander on the mound for the Braves, he shoots up the rankings at 1B. Lind sports a .291 average and .929 OPS against right-handed pitching this season and owned a .410 wOBA against them in 2014.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.41 wOBA: 0.179 ISO: 164 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.335 wOBA: 0.169 ISO: 110 wRC+
Carlos Gomez – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.368 wOBA: 0.187 ISO: 133 wRC+
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman – (LHB) – Freeman sports a .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and is hitting .313 with a .900 OPS this season at Turner Field.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.388 wOBA: 0.188 ISO: 150 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Nick Markakis – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.332 wOBA: 0.135 ISO: 111 wRC+
Philadelphia at Washington – 1:35 PM EST
| Philadelphia | Washington | ||||||||
 | Aaron Harang |  | Gio Gonzalez | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-180) | |||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.273 | 0.718 | 0.318 | 0.166 | SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.645 | 0.287 | 0.245 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.671 | 0.298 | 0.198 | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.693 | 0.308 | 0.243 |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Aaron Harang – The Haranatang survived his last start in Coors Field without allowing an earned run (three unearned runs) and has now sports a nifty 1.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP on the young season. While his 6.67 K/9 is a bit subpar, Harang defeated the Nationals in their only previous meeting this season and dominated them last season; going 2-1 with a 1.33 ERA , 1.04 WHIP with 24 strikeouts over 27 innings. Some of his advanced stats (.251 BABIP and 4.12 xFIP) suggest a regression is imminent, but he’s still a fine option as a secondary pitcher on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8000 FD, $7400 DK
Gio Gonzalez – Gio has been roughed up a bit in both of his last two starts and consequently has seen his ERA balloon to 4.94 after eight starts this season. However, his .371 BABIP and 3.34 xFIP both imply that he’s been very unlucky this season and Gio’s 8.18 K/9 is still a fantasy asset. Today he’s greeted with a very favorable home matchup against a Phillies team that owned just a .299 team wOBA against left-handed pitching last season. At the end of the season, I expect GIo’s numbers to resemble his 2014 season (3.57 ERA) which makes him a fine option this afternoon. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8200 FD, $7900 DK
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Carlos Ruiz – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.372 wOBA: 0.182 ISO: 138 wRC+
Maikel Franco – (RHB) – No 2014 stats
Washington
Bryce Harper – (LHB) – Fade him at your own risk at this point. Harper owns a ridiculous .532 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and has 11 home runs and a 1.434 OPS during the month of May.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.338 wOBA: 0.144 ISO: 115 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Denard Span – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.353 wOBA: 0.125 ISO: 125 wRC+
Ryan Zimmerman – (RHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.347 wOBA: 0.179 ISO: 121 wRC+
NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM EST
| NY Mets | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
 | Jonathon Niese |  | Francisco Liriano | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| PIT (-160) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.26 | 0.718 | 0.322 | 0.266 | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.191 | 0.597 | 0.273 | 0.256 | ||||
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | Batter Splits | PIT vs L | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jonathon Niese – After six starts this season, Niese sported an impressive 1.95 ERA over 37 innings, but he struggled a bit against the Cubs in Wrigley Field last week and then was absolutely pounded at Citi Field by the St. Louis Cardinals (eight runs on 11 hits in 5.0 innings). Those two started effectively doubled his ERA to where it currently sits at 3.72 and his 1.49 WHIP is definitely a concern. Only Mark Buerhle is missing less bats than Niese this season (89.0 Contact%) and his 5.21 K/9 is not what fantasy owners are looking for. This Pirates lineup is littered with guys who hit left-handed pitching well and they also posted MLB’s fourth highest team wOBA at home last season (.333 wOBA). Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $7300 FD, $7000 DK
Francisco Liriano – Liriano was terrific to open the 2015 season, but after a few shaky starts in a row, the wheels finally fell off in his last start. The Minnesota Twins lit Liriano up for seven earned runs in just two innings of work on Tuesday night and the Pirates left-hander has now seen his ERA skyrocket to 4.15 on the season. However, with a shortage of real “aces” on the mound today, it’s simply impossible to ignore Liriano’s upside. Liriano’s has the second-lowest contact % among qualified pitchers this season (69.3%) which had led to an elite 26.7% K%. He’s always been susceptible to the occasional blow-up outing, and the Mets have handled the bat rather well against left-handed pitching this season, but he’s still a risk I’m willing to take. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8700 FD, $8000 DK
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Michael Cuddyer – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.547 wOBA: 0.392 ISO: 241 wRC+
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen – (RHB) – That early seaosn slump is a thing of the past, as McCutchen has now done deep twice in the last three games and is 8 for 20 over the last seven days. He posted a .397 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and is 5 for 13 with three doubles off of Niese in their prior meetings.
2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.397 wOBA: 0.24 ISO: 158 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Starling Marte – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.346 wOBA: 0.124 ISO: 124 wRC+
Jordy Mercer – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.351 wOBA: 0.14 ISO: 127 wRC+
LA Angels at Boston – 1:35 PM EST
| LA Angels | Boston | ||||||||
 | Hector Santiago |  | Wade Miley | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| BOS (-117) | 9 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.578 | 0.265 | 0.191 | SP vs. Left | 0.26 | 0 | 0.322 | 0.189 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.727 | 0.322 | 0.209 | SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.759 | 0.334 | 0.204 |
| Batter Splits | ANA BvP | ANA vs L | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Hector Santiago – Santiago has been a bright spot in the Angels rotation this season and the southpaw brings a 3-2 record with a 2.25 ERA and 1.23 WHIP into today’s game at Fenway Park. However, both is extreme fly ball rate (47.1 FB%) and 87% LOB% are big red flags that a regression is imminent, and his 4.32 SIERA backs it up. Despite being loaded with guys who’ve crushed left-handed pitching throughout their careers, this Red Sox team, in somewhat inconceivable fashion, owns the league’s fourth-worst team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season (.277 team wOBA). Santiago has proven to be nearly a strikeout-per-inning pitcher through his career which lands him firmly as a worthwhile GPP play. However, Fenway Park can be unforgiving for fly ball pitchers and, despite what the 2015 numbers say, I believe this Red Sox lineup to be very dangerous against left-handed pitching. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7800 FD, $7100 DK
Wade Miley – The verdict is still out on whether or not Boston can rely on Wade Miley in the starting rotation every five days, but despite still owning an ugly 5.10 ERA and 1.44 WHIP through his first eight starts in a Red Sox uniform, Miley appears to have finally settled in and has now posted a 3.04 ERA and 1.24 WHIP (with 19 strikeouts) in four starts this month. He’ll welcome an Angels team to Fenway Park today who somewhat surprisingly own the league’s worst team wOBA this season (.284). His recent success and the nice matchup make him a viable option today, but he’s just not a pitcher I’m comfortable using in cash games. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6900 FD, $6600 DK
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Mike Trout – Trout picked up another hit (and an RBI) in yesterday’s game and will put his five game hitting streak on the line today against Wade Miley. Right-handers own a .337 wOBA off of Miley this season and Trout owned a .398 wOBA against southpaws last season.
Secondary Plays:
Chris Iannetta – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.383 wOBA: 0.219 ISO: 153 wRC+
David Freese – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.382 wOBA: 0.17 ISO: 153 wRC+
Boston
Hanley Ramirez – (RHB) – Right-handed batters have had far more success off of Santiago this season than lefties and Ramirez has crushed southpaws for a .463 wOBA. He picked up a pair of hits in yesterday’s game is reasonably priced on many sites. 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.383 wOBA: 0.194 ISO: 150 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Mike Napoli – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.407 wOBA: 0.173 ISO: 162 wRC+
Dustin Pedroia – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.322 wOBA: 0.151 ISO: 102 wRC+
Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM EST
| Minnesota | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
 | Kyle Gibson |  | Jose Quintana | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHW (-139) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.694 | 0.31 | 0.09 | SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.649 | 0.288 | 0.235 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.25 | 0.676 | 0.302 | 0.177 | SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.684 | 0.303 | 0.21 |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | Batter Splits | CWS BvP | CWS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kyle Gibson – Gibson is your prototypical pitch-to-contact type of pitcher, and the results thus far in 2015 are impressive. Gibson has forced a ton of groundballs this season and after eight starts, he sports a 3-3 record with a 2.98 ERA. However, his once promising strikeout rates in the minors have completely evaporated at the MLB level and his current 3.54 K/9 is one of the lowest among rates in the league. His 4.78 xFIP is screaming for a regression, but today’s matchup against a White Sox team who he shut out over eight innings to open the month of May is not terrifying. While I think he’ll probably pitch fairly well today, there’s simply no upside with Gibson and I’ll be looking elsewhere. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6400 FD, $5400 DK
Jose Quintana – His overall numbers are inflated (errrr, deflated?) by an atrocious nine-run outing against the Detroit Tigers back in mid-April, but Quintana has been splendid in each of his last five starts. In those five outings, he sports a 2.18 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 32 strikeouts over 33 innings pitched. Quintana was a tough-luck loser (1-0) against the Twins when they met earlier this season, but he dominated them last season; going 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA, 1.00 WHIP while racking up 32 strikeouts in 25 innings of work. While the Twins have been swinging the bats well this season and happen to own MLB’s 6th best wOBA against left-handed pitching, I’m still quite high on Quintana here. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7600 FD, $8100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Brian Dozier – (RHB) – Dozier posted a .351 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and owns a .283 average and .860 OPS against southpaws once again this season. Right-handed batters own a .368 wOBA against Quintana this season and Dozier should find himself back in the leadoff spot today.
2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.351 wOBA: 0.203 ISO: 126 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Trevor Plouffe – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.343 wOBA: 0.152 ISO: 120 wRC+
Torii Hunter – (RHB) – 2014 vs LH Pitching: 0.35 wOBA: 0.151 ISO: 124 wRC+
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – (RHB) – Abreu may have had his 17 game hitting streak snapped yesterday, but he’s in a nice spot today at home against Gibson. Right-handed batters own a .342 wOBA off of Gibson this season and, despite the recent power shortage, Abreu is still the most dangerous bat in this Chicago lineup.
2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.394 wOBA: 0.25 ISO: 153 wRC+
Secondary Plays:
Adam Eaton – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.344 wOBA: 0.119 ISO: 118 wRC+
Adam LaRoche – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.384 wOBA: 0.221 ISO: 146 wRC+
Conor Gillaspie – (LHB) – 2014 vs RH Pitching: 0.352 wOBA: 0.144 ISO: 124 wRC+