MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 30th - Page Two
Detroit at Kansas City
| Detroit | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Alfredo Simon |  | Danny Duffy | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KC (-110) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.715 | 0.313 | 0.152 | SP vs. Left | 0.136 | 0.386 | 0.185 | 0.18 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.665 | 0.296 | 0.159 | SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.67 | 0.299 | 0.188 |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | Batter Splits | KC BvP | KC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Alfredo Simon (FD: $8100, DK: $6000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.75 — Strikeout Rate: 14.6% — Walk Rate: 3.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.9%
2014: xFIP: 4.05 — Strikeout Rate: 15.5% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.2%
Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.361 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 14.3% (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Simon may have an ERA of 1.65, but don’t be fooled. He currently has a 3.75 xFIP with an average strikeout rate of 14.6%. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters and he gets a lot of run support pitching for the Tigers, but that’s not enough for me. I like to target pitchers that have great strikeout potential. That’s not the case with Simon tonight, as he squares off against a Royals’ offense that is ranked second in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The Royals also have the fewest number of strikeouts of any team in baseball.
Pitcher Rating:46.3
Danny Duffy (FD: $7300, DK: $6500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.79 — Strikeout Rate: 17.2% — Walk Rate: 7.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.8%
2014: xFIP: 4.42 — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.8%
Detroit Tigers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.351 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 21.4% (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Duffy is having a decent season thus far, posting a 3.70 xFIP with a 17.2% strikeout rate. He is not on my radar tonight though, as he facing a Tigers’ offense that is ranked fifth in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Duffy is a fly ball pitcher that could have some trouble with the home run power in the Tigers’ lineup. There are better pitching options tonight and Duffy can safely be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating:45.2
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera (FD: $4900, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.200 — OBP: 0.348
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.364
Analysis: Cabrera is fresh off of a two-home run performance yesterday against the Twins. He will look to keep it going tonight against Danny Duffy, who is an average left-handed pitcher. Cabrera’s numbers against southpaws are down a bit this season, but the sample size is still extremely small. He finished the 2014 season with a .385 wOBA and a .235 ISO against left-handed pitching.
Secondary Plays:
Victor Martinez (FD: $3500, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.420 — ISO: 0.067 — OBP: 0.500
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.476 — ISO: 0.322 — OBP: 0.430
J.D. Martinez (FD: $3400, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.150 — OBP: 0.364
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.425 — ISO: 0.333 — OBP: 0.362
Ian Kinsler (FD: $3700, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.234 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.280
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.146 — OBP: 0.313
Rajai Davis (FD: $3200, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.450
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.408 — ISO: 0.201 — OBP: 0.382
Jose Iglesias (FD: $2600, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.524 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.542
Kansas City
Kendrys Morales (FD: $2500, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.414 — ISO: 0.244 — OBP: 0.391
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.259 — ISO: 0.107 — OBP: 0.271
Analysis: Morales has been the forgotten man in the Royals’ lineup, at least in DFS. He plays first base, which is typically the most stacked position in daily fantasy baseball. He continues to cruise along though, posting a .414 wOBA and a .244 ISO against right-handed pitching. He’s close to the bare-minimum salary on FanDuel and he provides great value tonight against Alfredo Simon and the Tigers.
Secondary Plays:
Eric Hosmer (FD: $3300, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.451 — ISO: 0.135 — OBP: 0.488
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.132 — OBP: 0.326
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
| Chicago White Sox | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | Chris Sale |  | Trevor May | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CWS (-150) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.165 | 0.393 | 0.183 | 0.367 | SP vs. Left | 0.298 | 0.892 | 0.393 | 0.217 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.608 | 0.272 | 0.289 | SP vs. Right | 0.324 | 0.907 | 0.394 | 0.198 |
| Batter Splits | CWS BvP | CWS vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Sale (FD: $10000, DK: $11300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.00 — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% — Walk Rate: 4.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.9%
2014: xFIP: 2.83 — Strikeout Rate: 30.4% — Walk Rate: 5.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.7%
Minnesota Twins vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.283 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 18.8% (Rank: 11)
Analysis: There are a few aces on the mound tonight, but none with as much upside as Chris Sale. His strikeout numbers are down a bit this season, but that can happen when two of your three starts come against the Royals and Tigers. Sale faced the Twins in his first start of the season, striking out eight batters in six innings of work. Don’t be surprised if he has an even better outing against them this time around. The Twins are currently ranked 24th in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Plus, he should get plenty of run support with Trevor May on the mound opposite him.
Pitcher Rating:89.3
Trevor May (FD: $6200, DK: $5800)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.25 — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% — Walk Rate: 3.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.3%
2014: xFIP: 4.38 — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% — Walk Rate: 10.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 35.7%
Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 21)
Analysis: May has pitched well this season, posting a 3.25 xFIP with a strikeout rate of 21.3%. He has really cut down on his walks, which has helped him lower his xFIP. May is a sizable underdog tonight against the White Sox though and run support will likely be limited. The White Sox do strike out at a generous rate, but May is a borderline GPP play at best tonight.
Pitcher Rating:55.3
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu (FD: $4100, DK: $5600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.469 — ISO: 0.367 — OBP: 0.407
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.364
Analysis: Abreu continues to do Abreu-type of things at the plate. He has been terrific this season, posting a .469 wOBA and a .367 ISO against right-handed pitching. That means that he is getting an extra-base hit in more than one-third of his at-bats against righties. He deserves consideration as one of the top overall plays at any position, as Trevor May gave up a .394 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season.
Secondary Plays:
Adam LaRoche (FD: $2700, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.209 — OBP: 0.340
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.390
Adam Eaton (FD: $2600, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.236 — ISO: 0.043 — OBP: 0.269
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.344 — ISO: 0.119 — OBP: 0.358
Melky Cabrera (FD: $2600, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.043 — OBP: 0.420
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.355
Minnesota
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Brian Dozier (FD: $2900, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.314 — ISO: 0.138 — OBP: 0.333
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.337
Seattle at Houston
| Seattle | Houston | ||||||||
 | James Paxton |  | Scott Feldman | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-120) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.2 | 0.527 | 0.251 | 0.275 | SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.715 | 0.314 | 0.126 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.629 | 0.281 | 0.179 | SP vs. Right | 0.258 | 0.737 | 0.325 | 0.157 |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
James Paxton (FD: $6400, DK: $6800)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.74 — Strikeout Rate: 20.2% — Walk Rate: 6.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.54 — Strikeout Rate: 19.5% — Walk Rate: 9.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.8%
Houston Astros vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 22)
Analysis: Paxton has struggled in his last two starts, giving up a combined 15 hits and 11 runs in only seven innings of work. He has a decent strikeout rate of 20.2%, but he is a small underdog in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs. The Astros may strike out at a high rate, but their offense is finally starting to fire on all cylinders. They are coming off of a big offensive series in San Diego and they should be able to keep it going in their home series against the Mariners.
Pitcher Rating:50.8
Scott Feldman (FD: $7000, DK: $5700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.55 — Strikeout Rate: 14.1% — Walk Rate: 3.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.1%
2014: xFIP: 4.19 — Strikeout Rate: 14.0% — Walk Rate: 6.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.9%
Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Strikeouts are the most important statistic to factor into your daily pitching analysis, which is why Feldman is an easy pitcher to avoid every time he takes the mound. It takes a near perfect outing for him to reach value, while a pitcher with a high-strikeout rate can afford to make a few mistakes. Feldman only strikes out 14% of the batters that he faces and he has to face the Mariners at Minute Maid Park, which is more of a hitter’s park than a pitcher’s park.
Pitcher Rating:51.1
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Nelson Cruz (FD: $5000, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.266 — OBP: 0.313
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.310
Analysis: Cruz is on fire right now. His numbers are obviously better against left-handed pitching, but he’s no slouch against right-handed pitching either. He currently owns a .372 wOBA with a .266 ISO against righties this season. Cruz also sees a ballpark boost tonight, as Minute Maid Park grades out as the 7th-best ballpark for right-handed hitters.
Secondary Plays:
Robinson Cano (FD: $3500, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.145 — OBP: 0.367
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.166 — OBP: 0.398
Logan Morrison (FD: $2300, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.169 — ISO: 0.063 — OBP: 0.176
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.163 — OBP: 0.296
Houston
Jose Altuve (FD: $4400, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.564 — ISO: 0.182 — OBP: 0.583
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.447
Analysis: Altuve may be small, but he is fast and actually has some decent power for a leadoff hitter. He has crushed left-handed pitching throughout his career and this season is no different. He owns a .564 wOBA and a .583 OBP against southpaws. He’s the top second base option on the board tonight and he also gives you the added bonus of a potential stolen base or two.
Secondary Plays:
George Springer (FD: $3900, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.284 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.286
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.385
Chris Carter (FD: $2600, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.304
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.274 — OBP: 0.350
Evan Gattis (FD: $2700, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C/OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.105 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.118
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.419 — ISO: 0.271 — OBP: 0.356