MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 9 - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-09 20:26:03

San Francisco at San Diego

Pitcher Grind Down

Tim Hudson (FD: $7500, DK: $6200)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.57 / xFIP: 3.57 / SIERA: 3.66
K/9: 5.7 / K%: 0.152 / BB%: 0.043
SD vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 30 / K% Rank: 25

Analysis: Hudson is getting older, but he still knows how to get outs. He doesn’t offer much in terms of strikeout potential, but the finished 2014 with a 3.57 xFIP and a K/9 of 5.7. He faces a revamped Padres offense tonight, but he gets to face them in the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Petco Park routinely ranks as the toughest park in the majors for offensive production. There isn’t a ton of upside with Hudson, but he’s a serviceable value option as an SP2. Rating = 6

Ian Kennedy (FD: $8300, DK: $7800)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.63 / xFIP: 3.44 / SIERA: 3.47
K/9: 9.27 / K%: 0.245 / BB%: 0.083
SF vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 15 / K% Rank: 15

Analysis: Kennedy is coming off of a solid 2014 campaign, where he posted a 3.44 xFIP with a K/9 of 9.3. He had an elite strikeout rate of 24.5% of the batters that he faced. His matchup against the Giants is fairly mediocre, but he does get to face them at home in Petco Park. Kennedy is a small favorite (-126) in a game that features a low total of 6.5 runs. He is the clear #1 option in the late slate that only features three games. Rating = 8.5

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Angel Pagan (FD: $3600, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.35 / ISO: 0.082

Nori Aoki (FD: $3000, DK: $3600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.297 / ISO: 0.076

San Diego

Matt Kemp (FD: $4000, DK: $4700)

BA: 0.287 / wOBA: 0.369 / ISO: 0.22
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.229

Analysis: Kemp has gotten off to a quick start with his new team. He is 5/13 with 3 RBIs in his first three games with the Padres. He is typically known for his power against left-handed pitching, but he actually finished with a higher wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Petco Park certainly isn’t a place to expect a lot of offensive production out of, but Kemp is in play against the right-hander Tim Hudson.

Secondary Plays:

Justin Upton (FD: $3900, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.347 / ISO: 0.197

Yangervis Solarte (FD: $2400, DK: $3200) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.307 / ISO: 0.095

Toronto at NY Yankees

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Norris (FD: $6100, DK: $6000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.4 / xFIP: 5.85 / SIERA: 5.95
K/9: 5.4 / K%: 0.133 / BB%: 0.167
NYY vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 12 / K% Rank: 9

Analysis: Norris is a 21-year old left-hander with some great potential. He will be making his second career start in the big leagues tonight against the Yankees. In 12 starts in AA and AAA last season, he averaged just over 13 strikeouts per nine innings. Obviously, the majors are a different animal than the minors, but strikeout numbers typically travel well through the ranks. Norris is extremely cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he’s my favorite tournament play in the late slate of games. Rating = 6

CC Sabathia (FD: $7600, DK: $8700)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.28 / xFIP: 3.11 / SIERA: 3.07
K/9: 9.39 / K%: 0.23 / BB%: 0.048
TOR vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 19 / K% Rank: 4

Analysis: Even though his velocity has improved since last season, we shouldn’t expect Sabathia to become the ace that he has been in years past. He’s projected as an average rotation pitcher for this season. Sabathia actually had some bad luck last year, as his xFIP and SIERA were both two full runs lower than his ERA. There will be times to target Sabathia this season, but a matchup against the powerful Blue Jays’ lineup isn’t one of them. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Bautista (FD: $4600, DK: $5000)

BA: 0.286 / wOBA: 0.402 / ISO: 0.239
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.461 / ISO: 0.284

Analysis: Bautista is one of the best hitters in baseball when he is facing a left-handed pitcher. He finished 2014 with a .461 wOBA and a .284 ISO against left-handed pitching. He is only 3/26 off of Sabathia in his career, but it’s hard to put too much stock into those numbers, considering the fact that most of those at-bats came when Sabathia was in his prime.

Secondary Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion (FD: $4700, DK: $5000) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.378 / ISO: 0.232

Josh Donaldson (FD: $3900, DK: $4700) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.429 / ISO: 0.353

Jose Reyes (FD: $3800, DK: $4500) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.314 / ISO: 0.102

NY Yankees

Chase Headley (FD: $2900, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.243 / wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.13
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 / ISO: 0.129

Analysis: Headley had a strong Spring and he may move up in the order tonight, as the Yankees are facing a left-handed pitcher. It’s hard to know what to expect from Norris, who will only be making his second career start. If you are targeting any Yankees’ bats tonight, target the ones that hit from the right side of the plate.

Secondary Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $4000, DK: $4600) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.360 / ISO: 0.172

Mark Teixeira (FD: $3300, DK: $4100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.308 / ISO: 0.138

Carlos Beltran (FD: $3000, DK: $4100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.245 / ISO: 0.126

Boston at Philadelphia

Pitcher Grind Down

Justin Masterson (FD: $7100, DK: $6700)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 5.88 / xFIP: 4.08 / SIERA: 4.03
K/9: 8.11 / K%: 0.196 / BB%: 0.117
PHI vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 26 / K% Rank: 17

Analysis: As you will quickly learn, Masterson is one of the most hit or miss pitchers in baseball. When he has strong command of his pitches, he can rack up the strikeouts. When his command is off, he walks a ton of batters and often finds himself in difficult situations. He struck out 20% of the batters that he faced last season, but he also walked 12% of them as well. Due to his boom or bust nature, he is a better tournament option than a cash game play tonight against the Phillies. Rating = 6

David Buchanan (FD: $6400, DK: $5100)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.75 / xFIP: 4.14 / SIERA: 4.21
K/9: 5.43 / K%: 0.141 / BB%: 0.064
BOS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 24

Analysis: Buchanan is not the prototypical pitcher that we like to target in daily fantasy baseball. In 2014, he posted a mediocre xFIP of 4.14 with a below-average K/9 of 5.4. He draws a tough matchup against a much-improved Boston Red Sox lineup tonight. Buchanan doesn’t offer much in terms of upside and he’s the underdog in tonight’s contest. He can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments. Rating 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Pablo Sandoval (FD: $3000, DK: $4300)

BA: 0.279 / wOBA: 0.323 / ISO: 0.136
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.359 / ISO: 0.144

Analysis: Sandoval is a switch-hitter, but he’s much better from the left side of the plate. He finished 2014 with a .359 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He draws a favorable matchup against David Buchanan tonight. While Buchanan did have some nasty reverse splits last season, Sandoval’s affordable price puts him in that elite play category tonight. He should have a couple of opportunities to drive in some runs.

Secondary Plays:

David Ortiz (FD: $3800, DK: $4500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.364 / ISO: 0.248

Hanley Ramirez (FD: $4300, DK: $4800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.156

Dustin Pedroia (FD: $3700, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.078

Philadelphia

Chase Utley (FD: $3500, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.270 / wOBA: 0.325 / ISO: 0.138
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.144

Analysis: This pick is pretty straight-forward. Utley is a high on-base guy with good splits against right-handed pitching. Utley finished 2014 with a .333 wOBA against right-handed pitchers, while Justin Masterson gave up a .400 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Utley is the premier play at second base in the short slate of late games.

Secondary Plays:

Ben Revere (FD: $2900, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.290 / ISO: 0.05

Cody Asche (FD: $2400, DK: $3500) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.303 / ISO: 0.137

Carlos Ruiz (FD: $2500, DK: $3400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.307 / ISO: 0.099