MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 14th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
LA Dodgers at Atlanta
| LA Dodgers | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Roberto Hernandez | Vegas Moneyline | Aaron Harang | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-118) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.209 | 0.654 | 0.299 | 8.50% | SP vs. Left | 0.287 | 0.763 | 0.338 | 16.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.741 | 0.322 | 18.80% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.669 | 0.296 | 19.60% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP  | LAD vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez pitched pretty well in his Dodgers’ debut. He pitched 6 innings and allowed 2 earned runs while striking out 5 batters. He has a favorable matchup against the Braves who are ranked 27th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. That said, Hernandez isn’t a high strikeout pitcher at this stage in his career (5.7 per 9 innings) and he is giving up too many free base passes to his opponents (3.9 per 9 innings). The total in his game is low, but I’m not going to be using Hernandez here. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5800 FD, $11750 DD, $6200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $11750 FTD
- Aaron Harang – The Harangatang bandwagon came to a screeching halt in his first bad outing of the season and since then it doesn’t seem like anyone targets him anymore. He’s actually having a pretty decent season though. He owns a 3.31 ERA (4.22 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.7. He has held his opponents to 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 outings and he’s thrown at least 100 pitches in 7 straight starts. Now, am I going to use him against the Dodgers today? No, but I had to point out that he’s actually having a pretty decent season. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6600 FD, $14600 DD, $6800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $14600 FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez has a favorable matchup in terms of handedness and BvP. Harang has given up a .352 wOBA to LH hitters this season and A-Gon has always mashed RH pitching. He also has a great track record against Harang going 8/20 with 5 XBH’s.
Additional Plays: Dee Gordon, Andre Ethier
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman – Hernandez has been able to keep LH hitters in check this season, but that has not been the case throughout his career. Hernandez has given up a career .351 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Freeman feasts on average RH pitchers and makes a terrific play at 1B in the early slate of games.
Additional Plays: Jason Heyward, Justin Upton
Pittsburgh at Detroit
| Pittsburgh | Detroit | ||||||||
| Francisco Liriano | Vegas Moneyline | Max Scherzer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | DET (-170) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.277 | 0.794 | 0.349 | 29.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.713 | 0.316 | 22.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.660 | 0.297 | 24.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.631 | 0.279 | 33.60% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Francisco Liriano – Liriano gave up a quick 2 runs in the first inning of his last start, but quickly settled in and pitched 6 scoreless innings after that. His velocity was good in his last start and we are starting to see him rack up some strikeouts as he has fanned 21 batters over his last 3 starts. While I will be targeting him often down the stretch of the regular season, a matchup against the Tigers in Comerica is more than enough reason to avoid him today. The Tigers are ranked 2nd in wOBA vs. LH pitching and are one of the best home hitting teams in baseball. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7400 FD, $14550 DD, $9400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14550 FTD
- Max Scherzer – We have a red hot offense going up against a red hot pitcher. I’ll always take great pitching over great hitting. Scherzer is averaging over 10 strikeouts per 9 innings this season and has an ERA under 2.00 since the start of July. He has always pitched well at Comerica and he should be able to quiet the Pirates bats. With only 4 games in the early slate, start your lineup process by picking Scherzer and then build your team around him. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $10900 FD, $20750 DD, $11500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $20750 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Even though Josh Harrison and the Bucco’s have been scoring runs in bunches, I will be avoiding them today against Scherzer who has staked his claim as one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Detroit
Victor Martinez – V-Mart has crushed LH pitching throughout his career and one of the lefties that he’s picked on has been Liriano. V-Mart is 13/27 with 6 doubles and a HR off of Liriano in his career. That’s a big enough sample size that you can’t just write it off as a fluke.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera (also good BvP), Ian Kinsler, Torii Hunter
Oakland at Kansas City
| Oakland | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | Vegas Moneyline | James Shields | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | KCR (-117) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.673 | 0.296 | 23.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 0.755 | 0.333 | 19.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.641 | 0.284 | 20.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.721 | 0.316 | 18.60% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jeff Samardzija – The Shark takes the mound for the A’s tonight in hopes to quiet a Royals team that has won 9 of their last 10 games. Samardzija has been knocked around a bit in his last few starts. He has given up 8 earned runs over his last 3 starts, but the biggest issue has been his lack of strikeouts since coming over to the American League. That’s not likely to change today as the Royals strike out fewer times than any team in baseball. He’s in play on multi-pitcher sites, but he has limited upside against the Royals. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $17950 DD, $9200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $17950 FTD
- James Shields – In his last 4 starts, Shields has pitched 30 innings while only giving up 4 earned runs and striking out 19 batters. He has a 3.25 ERA (3.63 xFIP) on the season, but has really worked to lower that. Since the start of July, he has posted an ERA right around 2.00. The A’s are typically a team that I avoid taking pitchers against, but they have been ice cold in recent weeks and Shields has pitched well against them in the past. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8600 FD, $16900 DD, $8200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $16900 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Brandon Moss – Moss is starting to come out of his slump. He has 6 hits over his last 4 games and is still under-priced on most sites across the industry. While the matchup isn’t ideal, Shields does give up a .330 wOBA to LH hitters.
Additional Plays: John Jaso
Kansas City
Alex Gordon – Samardzija has held both LH and RH hitters in check this season, but Gordon has a high floor and that’s something that you may want to target in the early slate of games. He has nice power against RH pitching and will be batting in the heart of the Royals lineup.
Additional Plays: None
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
| Milwaukee | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Mike Fiers | Vegas Moneyline | Edwin Jackson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIL (-123) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.329 | 0.905 | 0.396 | 17.50% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.781 | 0.343 | 23.20% | ||||
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mike Fiers – Fiers has had a very impressive K-rate in the minors. At the Triple-A level this season, he is averaging 11.3 K’s per 9 innings. He is a very interesting option today against the Cubs who strike out at a high rate against RH pitching. Fiers is a fly-ball pitcher, but the wind is blowing in at Wrigley today which should help him keep it in the park. The upside is certainly there and his price is more than reasonable. Rating = 6
Salaries: $5400 FD, $9600 DD, $5800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Edwin Jackson – Jackson has a 5.61 ERA on the season, but his xFIP of 3.97 suggests that he’s pitching much better. That said, he is still a very inconsistent option and he’s facing a very capable Brewers offense. The Brewers have had some decent success against him in the past and I expect more of the same today. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5900 FD, $10650 DD, $6000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $10650 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Jonathan Lucroy – Lucroy is one of the few batters on the schedule with terrific BvP numbers. He has faced Jackson 29 times in his career and has 11 hits off of him with 4 of those going for extra bases. Lucroy has a high floor and should be targeted in all leagues.
Additional Plays: Scooter Gennett, Carlos Gomez, Khris Davis
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo has homered in back to back games and gets to face a young righty on the mound today. Rizzo doesn’t necessarily hit for average, but he has a ton of power and makes a nice contrarian play at 1B if you don’t want to take Cabrera or Freeman.
Additional Plays: Javier Baez
Washington at NY Mets
| Washington | NY Mets | ||||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | Vegas Moneyline | Dillon Gee | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-135) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.635 | 0.281 | 24.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.732 | 0.325 | 12.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.730 | 0.320 | 31.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.200 | 0.620 | 0.277 | 22.40% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Stephen Strasburg – I typically like to avoid Strasburg on the road, but I may have to break that rule tonight against the Mets. While Strasburg’s road splits are scary, I can’t ignore the great matchup against the Mets in Citi Field. The Mets are ranked 23rd against RH pitching this season and are striking out at a 20% clip against righties. Strasburg has dominated the Mets in the past and should be able to do the same tonight. His price is more than reasonable (Sale, Felix, and Kershaw are all in the $11-12k range on FD and DK) and the strikeouts should be plentiful. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $9400 FD, $19600 DD, $9900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $19600 FTD
- Dillon Gee – Gee is always in play when he is pitching in Citi Field. He has been dominant there throughout his career and this season is no different. He has a 3.38 ERA at home this season while holding batters to a .214 batting average. He’s facing a Nationals offense that is right around the league average in wOBA vs. RH pitching. He will have a tough time picking up the win which hurts his case for cash games, but I do like him as a GPP play. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6600 FD, $12600 DD, $7300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12600 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Bryce Harper – Don’t look now, but Harper is finally starting to hit. He has 7 hits over his last 5 games including 2 HR’s and 5 RBI’s. It would be nice if they would move him up in the lineup, but there is less pressure to perform with him batting 6th.
Additional Plays: Adam LaRoche
NY Mets
Avoid all Mets against Strasburg tonight. With a game in Coors Field and another one in Globe Life Park, you don’t need to target hitters against one of the best pitchers in baseball.