MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 14 - Page Two

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST

San Francisco Cincinnati
sanfranciscomlb Tim Lincecum cincinnatimlb Johnny Cueto
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN (-165) 7
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.254 0.75 0.335 0.141 SP vs. Left 0.194 0.561 0.257 0.238
SP vs. Right 0.255 0.791 0.346 0.251 SP vs. Right 0.19 0.585 0.261 0.264
Batter Splits SF BvP SF vs R Batter Splits CIN BvP CIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tim Lincecum (FD: $7700, DK: $7700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.08 — K Rate: 19.4% — K/9: 7 — BB Rate: 9.7% — GB Rate: 54.0%
2014: SIERA: 3.95 — K Rate: 19.9% — K/9: 7.75 — BB Rate: 9.4% — GB Rate: 47.3%

Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 19)

Analysis: Lincecum has been a serviceable starter for the Giants this season, posting a 4.08 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.0. He has pitched much better at home than he has on the road in recent years though, which is a concern heading into tonight’s matchup against the Reds. It also hurts that the Reds have Johnny Cueto on the mound, which will likely limit Lincecum’s run support. He’s a deep GPP option at best tonight and he can safely be avoided in cash games.

Pitcher Rating:54.1

Johnny Cueto (FD: $10500, DK: $10100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.26 — K Rate: 23.7% — K/9: 8.24 — BB Rate: 4.0% — GB Rate: 38.1%
2014: SIERA: 3.15 — K Rate: 25.2% — K/9: 8.94 — BB Rate: 6.8% — GB Rate: 46.2%

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Cueto is the premier pitching option in the evening slate. He has pitched well this season, posting a 3.26 SIERA with a K/9 of 8.2. He rarely walks batters (4% walk rate this season), which allows him to pitch deep into games. The Giants aren’t a team that strikes out all that often, but they are right around the major league average in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Cueto is my favorite play in cash games tonight, as he has a great chance to pick up a win at home.

Pitcher Rating:90.2

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

NONE

Cincinnati

Todd Frazier (FD: $3800, DK: $4500)

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.259 — OBP: 0.343
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.195 — OBP: 0.334

Analysis: Frazier had a big game last night, hitting a home run and stealing a base. I always love targeting players that have the ability to rack up fantasy points in different ways and Frazier does just that. He has a .360 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and he draws a favorable matchup against Tim Lincecum, who has given up a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of 2014.

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto (FD: $3700, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.447 — ISO: 0.321 — OBP: 0.418
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.093 — OBP: 0.403

Billy Hamilton (FD: $3300, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.239 — ISO: 0.083 — OBP: 0.258
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.104 — OBP: 0.291

Zack Cozart (FD: $2500, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.227 — OBP: 0.358
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.239 — ISO: 0.068 — OBP: 0.254

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM EST

NY Yankees Tampa Bay
nyyankeesmlb Chase Whitley tampabaymlb Erasmo Ramirez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY (-110) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.313 0.866 0.38 0.176 SP vs. Left 0.279 0.79 0.353 0.168
SP vs. Right 0.297 0.793 0.348 0.188 SP vs. Right 0.27 0.848 0.371 0.192
Batter Splits NYY BvP NYY vs R Batter Splits TB BvP TB vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chase Whitley (FD: $7000, DK: $5700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.34 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 8.15 — BB Rate: 4.0% — GB Rate: 52.8%
2014: SIERA: 3.70 — K Rate: 18.2% — K/9: 7.14 — BB Rate: 5.5% — GB Rate: 45.3%

Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Pitching options are few and far between in the evening slate, but if you are looking for one to target in tournaments, Whitley is certainly worth a look. He has pitched well this season with a 3.34 SIERA and a K/9 of 8.2. If those stats had a bigger name attached to them, he would be considered a bargain at his price point. He doesn’t walk many batters and he draws a favorable matchup against a Rays’ offense that is ranked 23rd in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He should also see plenty of run support with the erratic Erasmo Ramirez on the mound for Tampa Bay.

Pitcher Rating:65.7

Erasmo Ramirez (FD: $5100, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.54 — K Rate: 18.2% — K/9: 7.45 — BB Rate: 8.0% — GB Rate: 60.7%
2014: SIERA: 4.51 — K Rate: 17.8% — K/9: 7.17 — BB Rate: 10.1% — GB Rate: 37.7%

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 13)

Analysis: Ramirez has only started two games this season, so don’t get too excited about his 3.54 SIERA. He is a pitcher that struggles with his command and when things go bad, they typically go really bad. He can safely be avoided tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked 7th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:43.2

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $4300, DK: $4700)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.071 — OBP: 0.411
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.137 — OBP: 0.316

Analysis: Ellsbury is one of the premier plays in the outfield tonight. He has hit right-handed pitching well this season with a .369 wOBA. He also has 11 stolen bases on his resume. He draws a very favorable matchup against Erasmo Ramirez, who has given up a .334 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of 2014.

Secondary Plays:

Brett Gardner (FD: $3900, DK: $5000)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.127 — OBP: 0.388
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.325

Mark Teixeira (FD: $3900, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.444 — ISO: 0.453 — OBP: 0.360
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.199 — OBP: 0.305

Alex Rodriguez (FD: $3400, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.310 — OBP: 0.365

Tampa Bay

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Kevin Kiermaier (FD: $2700, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.296
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.218 — OBP: 0.339

James Loney (FD: $2300, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.128 — OBP: 0.271
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.103 — OBP: 0.355

Toronto at Houston – 8:10 PM EST

Toronto Houston
torontomlb Drew Hutchison houstonmlb Roberto Hernandez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR (-107) 9
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.256 0.811 0.353 0.216 SP vs. Left 0.246 0.745 0.333 0.094
SP vs. Right 0.222 0.615 0.273 0.257 SP vs. Right 0.242 0.738 0.323 0.191
Batter Splits TOR BvP TOR vs R Batter Splits HOU BvP HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Hutchison (FD: $7500, DK: $6300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.36 — K Rate: 17.2% — K/9: 7.18 — BB Rate: 7.7% — GB Rate: 41.3%
2014: SIERA: 3.59 — K Rate: 23.4% — K/9: 8.97 — BB Rate: 7.6% — GB Rate: 36.1%

Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 24.8% (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Hutchison is having a down season thus far, but he still has terrific strikeout potential. In 2014, he struck out 23.4% of the batters that he faced, which was more than 3x as many batters as he walked. His price is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight, making him a strong tournament play against the Astros. Houston may have a lot of power in their lineup, but they also strike out at the 2nd-highest rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:59.8

Roberto Hernandez (FD: $5800, DK: $4800)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.21 — K Rate: 13.3% — K/9: 4.82 — BB Rate: 6.0% — GB Rate: 54.2%
2014: SIERA: 4.67 — K Rate: 14.5% — K/9: 5.74 — BB Rate: 10.1% — GB Rate: 49.7%

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 21)

Analysis: Hernandez has produced an elite ground ball rate of 54.2% this season, but that’s really all he has done well. He has a mediocre 4.21 SIERA with a very low K/9 of 4.8. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Blue Jays, who are ranked 8th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:36.1

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Bautista (FD: $4600, DK: $5000)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.227 — OBP: 0.391

Analysis: Bautista is one of the top choices in the outfield tonight. He is facing a below average pitcher in Roberto Hernandez and he gets to face him in the home run-friendly Minute Maid Park. Bautista has great power against right-handed pitching, posting a .381 wOBA and a .250 ISO this season.

Secondary Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion (FD: $4400, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.296
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.291 — OBP: 0.349

Russell Martin (FD: $3700, DK: $4900)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.295 — OBP: 0.337
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.170 — OBP: 0.396

Devon Travis (FD: $3400, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.198 — OBP: 0.363

Houston

Luis Valbuena (FD: $2800, DK: $3700)

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.256 — OBP: 0.308
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.347

Analysis: Valbuena hit another home run last night against the Giants and he’ll look for another productive outing tonight against Drew Hutchison, who has given up a .345 wOBA to left-handed hitters since the start of 2014. Valbuena will likely be batting third tonight and given his price point, he’s one of the best value plays on the board.

Secondary Plays:

Colby Rasmus (FD: $2800, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.329 — OBP: 0.307
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.232 — OBP: 0.285

Jason Castro (FD: $2300, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.158 — OBP: 0.323
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.156 — OBP: 0.290

Washington at San Diego – 10:10 PM EST

Washington San Diego
washingtonmlb Doug Fister sandiegomlb Tyson Ross
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SDP (-113) 6.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.259 0.69 0.306 0.159 SP vs. Left 0.227 0.636 0.289 0.237
SP vs. Right 0.225 0.618 0.273 0.136 SP vs. Right 0.226 0.632 0.286 0.244
Batter Splits WAS BvP WAS vs R Batter Splits SD BvP SD vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Doug Fister (FD: $7800, DK: $8300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.92 — K Rate: 10.6% — K/9: 4.06 — BB Rate: 5.6% — GB Rate: 41.6%
2014: SIERA: 3.93 — K Rate: 14.8% — K/9: 5.38 — BB Rate: 3.6% — GB Rate: 48.9%

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 18)

Analysis: There will be a lot of people on Fister tonight, but I won’t be one of them. Sure, he gets to pitch in Petco Park, but his K/9 is so low that it’s hard to see him reaching value at his expensive price point. Fister has been getting hit hard this season, posting a 4.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 10.6%. There just isn’t enough upside for me to consider taking him in cash games or tournaments.

Pitcher Rating:55.4

Tyson Ross (FD: $8300, DK: $9200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.60 — K Rate: 26.4% — K/9: 10.62 — BB Rate: 12.6% — GB Rate: 60.0%
2014: SIERA: 3.21 — K Rate: 24.0% — K/9: 8.97 — BB Rate: 8.9% — GB Rate: 57.0%

Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 20)

Analysis: Johnny Cueto is the clear-cut number one pitching option tonight, but Ross makes a strong case for the second spot in the pitcher rankings. He has an elite strikeout rate and he is pitching at home, which is the best pitcher’s park in all of baseball. The Nationals’ offense has really come alive recently, which is a small concern. However, with a lack of other options, he may be my go-to SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating:84.9

Batter Grind Down

Washington

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Bryce Harper (FD: $5600, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.458 — ISO: 0.381 — OBP: 0.427
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.144 — OBP: 0.348

San Diego

Cory Spangenberg (FD: $2500, DK: $3000)

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.114 — OBP: 0.354
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.213 — OBP: 0.306

Analysis: Spangenberg is going to fly under the radar tonight, but I like him as a cash game and as a tournament play tonight. He has really started to hit recently and his wOBA against right-handed pitching is up to .337 on the season. He has good speed and he sees a small boost in stolen base potential with a right-handed pitcher on the mound.

Secondary Plays:

Justin Upton (FD: $4100, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.411 — ISO: 0.313 — OBP: 0.366
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.331

Yangervis Solarte (FD: $2300, DK: $2900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.095 — OBP: 0.334

Boston at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST

Boston Seattle
bostonmlb Joe Kelly seattlemlb Roenis Elias
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA (-121) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.243 0.689 0.318 0.149 SP vs. Left 0.209 0.655 0.298 0.243
SP vs. Right 0.237 0.696 0.307 0.171 SP vs. Right 0.254 0.729 0.324 0.196
Batter Splits BOS BvP BOS vs L Batter Splits SEA BvP SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Kelly (FD: $6900, DK: $5100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.96 — K Rate: 22.8% — K/9: 9 — BB Rate: 10.1% — GB Rate: 44.4%
2014: SIERA: 4.29 — K Rate: 15.9% — K/9: 6.17 — BB Rate: 10.1% — GB Rate: 54.9%

Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 24)

Analysis: Kelly has pitched well this season with a 3.96 SIERA and a K/9 of 9.0. His strikeouts are way up this season and when that happens, I like to look for two things: a change in velocity and a pitcher’s swinging strike rate. Kelly’s velocity is at his highest point of his career and so is his swinging strike rate. This means that the strikeouts may not be an anomaly. Kelly is in intriguing tournament play tonight against the Mariners, who are ranked 19th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:51.3

Roenis Elias (FD: $7000, DK: $7100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.49 — K Rate: 24.7% — K/9: 9.16 — BB Rate: 9.1% — GB Rate: 52.1%
2014: SIERA: 3.96 — K Rate: 20.6% — K/9: 7.86 — BB Rate: 9.2% — GB Rate: 45.4%

Boston Red Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Elias has pitched well this season with a 3.49 SIERA and a K/9 of 9.2. I’m surprised how little attention he is getting around the DFS industry. He produces an elite ground ball rate and he’s pitching at home against a Red Sox offense that is ranked 26th in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Elias makes a strong play in tournaments and as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating:66.4

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Dustin Pedroia (FD: $3000, DK: $3800)

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.292 — OBP: 0.367
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.325

Analysis: Pedroia has always hit left-handed pitching well. His numbers from last season weren’t great, but he was nursing injuries all year. His wOBA against southpaws is back up to .379 this season. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Roenis Elias, who has given up a .325 wOBA to right-handed hitters since the start of last season.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Napoli (FD: $2500, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.273 — OBP: 0.433
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.173 — OBP: 0.450

Seattle

Robinson Cano (FD: $3400, DK: $4300)

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.111 — OBP: 0.370
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.166 — OBP: 0.398

Analysis: Cano may not have the same upside that he did when he was a member of the Yankees, but he’s still a very productive player in daily fantasy baseball. He has a .346 wOBA against right-handed pitching and he gets to face Joe Kelly, who has given up a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters than he has to right-handed hitters.

Secondary Plays:

Nelson Cruz (FD: $5000, DK: $5300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.297 — OBP: 0.330
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.254 — OBP: 0.310

Kyle Seager (FD: $3200, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.161 — OBP: 0.298
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.358

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious