MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 7 - Page Two

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
cincinnatimlb Anthony Desclafani pittsburghmlb A.J. Burnett
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT (-140) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.319 0.892 0.391 0.194 SP vs. Left 0.243 0.785 0.35 0.191
SP vs. Right 0.257 0.71 0.307 0.162 SP vs. Right 0.254 0.713 0.316 0.215
Batter Splits CIN BvP CIN vs R Batter Splits PIT BvP PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Anthony Desclafani (FD: $7500, DK: $6800)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.04 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 7.55 — BB Rate: 8.9% — GB Rate: 42.7%
2014: SIERA: 3.70 — K Rate: 17.8% — K/9: 7.09 — BB Rate: 3.4% — GB Rate: 35.5%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 21)

Analysis: After three great starts to open the season, Descalfani has given up nine runs (five earned) in his last two starts. He has a mediocre SIERA of 4.04 and a slightly above average K/9 of 7.6. He draws a favorable matchup against the Pirates’ offense that can’t seem to do much of anything to start the season. Descalfani isn’t my favorite play at his price point, but he’s not unplayable either.

Pitcher Rating:61.6

A.J. Burnett (FD: $7100, DK: $8600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.45 — K Rate: 22.0% — K/9: 7.84 — BB Rate: 8.1% — GB Rate: 57.1%
2014: SIERA: 4.00 — K Rate: 20.3% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 10.3% — GB Rate: 50.9%

Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 17)

Analysis: Burnett loves to pitch in PNC Park and he loves to pitch for the Pirates. He is off to a quick start this season, posting a 3.45 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.8. He does struggle with his command at times, but his high strikeout and groundball rates more than make up for it. He draws a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Reds, who are ranked 21st in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. If he can pitch around the left-handed hitters in this lineup, he should be in for an excellent outing tonight.

Pitcher Rating:79.2

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto (FD: $4000, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.499 — ISO: 0.373 — OBP: 0.463
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.093 — OBP: 0.403

Billy Hamilton (FD: $3500, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.248 — ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.260
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.104 — OBP: 0.291

Pittsburgh

Gregory Polanco (FD: $3200, DK: $4500)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.136 — OBP: 0.349
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.123 — OBP: 0.342

Analysis: Polanco’s numbers against right-handed pitching don’t jump off the page, but he provides both speed and power, which is great in daily fantasy baseball. He draws a favorable matchup against Anthony Descalafani, who gave up a .391 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. I always love targeting players that are capable of both hitting a home run and stealing a base.

Secondary Plays:

Neil Walker (FD: $2700, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.145 — OBP: 0.337
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.222 — OBP: 0.339

Baltimore at NY Yankees

Baltimore NY Yankees
baltimoremlb Chris Tillman nyyankeesmlb Nathan Eovaldi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY (-135) 9
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.247 0.67 0.299 0.171 SP vs. Left 0.293 0.768 0.336 0.16
SP vs. Right 0.223 0.672 0.299 0.174 SP vs. Right 0.259 0.688 0.304 0.174
Batter Splits BAL BvP BAL vs R Batter Splits NYY BvP NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Tillman (FD: $7200, DK: $7000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 5.08 — K Rate: 17.7% — K/9: 6.92 — BB Rate: 13.3% — GB Rate: 35.1%
2014: SIERA: 4.26 — K Rate: 17.2% — K/9: 6.51 — BB Rate: 7.6% — GB Rate: 40.6%

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Tillman has not pitched well this season, posting a 5.08 SIERA with a K/9 of 6.9. He has struggled with his command, walking 13.3% of the batters that he has faced. He’s an easy pitcher to avoid tonight against the Yankees, who are ranked 15th in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Fly-ball pitchers typically don’t have a ton of success in Yankee Stadium, especially considering all the left-handed hitters in the Yankees’ lineup.

Pitcher Rating:45.2

Nathan Eovaldi (FD: $7600, DK: $6400)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.75 — K Rate: 17.7% — K/9: 6.99 — BB Rate: 4.8% — GB Rate: 46.8%
2014: SIERA: 3.91 — K Rate: 16.6% — K/9: 6.40 — BB Rate: 5.0% — GB Rate: 44.8%

Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.342 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 23.7% (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Eovaldi has been good this season, but his numbers don’t stand out. He has a 3.75 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.0. He’s typically not on my radar unless the matchup is extremely favorable. That’s not the case tonight with the Orioles, who are ranked 2nd in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:51.2

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Adam Jones (FD: $4000, DK: $4700)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.418 — ISO: 0.203 — OBP: 0.407
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.165 — OBP: 0.282

Analysis: Eovaldi typically gives up a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters than he does to right-handed hitters, but it’s hard to ignore Jones at this price point. He has gotten off to a great start this season, even against right-handed pitching. He currently has a .418 wOBA and a .203 ISO against righties.

Secondary Plays:

Alejandro De Aza (FD: $2200, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.172 — OBP: 0.290
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.149 — OBP: 0.340

Jimmy Paredes (FD: $3000, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 3B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.443 — ISO: 0.326 — OBP: 0.362
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.132 — OBP: 0.291

NY Yankees

Mark Teixeira (FD: $3700, DK: $4500)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: 0.439 — OBP: 0.319
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.199 — OBP: 0.305

Analysis: Teixeira is having a resurgent season thus far, getting off to a terrific start. He’s a notorious slow starter, but that hasn’t been the case in 2015. He has hit right-handed pitching well with a .399 wOBA and a .439 ISO. He draws a favorable matchup against Chris Tillman and he always sees a boost when he is playing at home, as the short porch in right comes into play.

Secondary Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $4500, DK: $5300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.071 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.137 — OBP: 0.316

Alex Rodriguez (FD: $3200, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.273 — OBP: 0.359

Texas at Tampa Bay

Texas Tampa Bay
texasmlb Nick Martinez tampabaymlb Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB (-170) 7
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.276 0.832 0.366 0.121 SP vs. Left 0.223 0.624 0.283 0.212
SP vs. Right 0.266 0.746 0.326 0.134 SP vs. Right 0.259 0.685 0.307 0.208
Batter Splits TEX BvP TEX vs R Batter Splits TB BvP TB vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Martinez (FD: $7000, DK: $5600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.83 — K Rate: 9.9% — K/9: 3.66 — BB Rate: 6.1% — GB Rate: 46.2%
2014: SIERA: 5.22 — K Rate: 12.6% — K/9: 4.94 — BB Rate: 9.0% — GB Rate: 32.9%

Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 22.0% (Rank: 24)

Analysis: Martinez has struggled this season, posting a 4.83 SIERA with a K/9 of 3.7. It’s never a good sign when a pitcher walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out. Even in a favorable matchup against the Rays, there is no reason to target Martinez. He has very limited upside and he’s one of the largest underdogs on the schedule tonight.

Pitcher Rating:44.2

Chris Archer (FD: $8900, DK: $9400)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 2.69 — K Rate: 28.4% — K/9: 9.86 — BB Rate: 6.8% — GB Rate: 56.4%
2014: SIERA: 3.80 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 8.8% — GB Rate: 46.5%

Texas Rangers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.269 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Archer is the premier pitching option tonight. He has been terrific this season with a 2.69 SIERA and a K/9 of 9.9. He has cut down on his walks and has been able to produce a higher ground-ball rate this season. He draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Rangers are ranked 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. He has good strikeout potential in this matchup and he should be able to pitch deep into the game.

Pitcher Rating:90.8

Batter Grind Down

Texas

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Beltre (FD: $2800, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.253 — ISO: 0.123 — OBP: 0.246
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.160 — OBP: 0.369

Tampa Bay

Kevin Kiermaier (FD: $2200, DK: $3900)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.264 — OBP: 0.291
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.218 — OBP: 0.339

Analysis: I’m going back to the well with the Kiermaier pick. While he hasn’t had a ton of success leading off, it’s still a great spot for him. He has good speed and good power against right-handed pitching. He also has a very attractive price point on FanDuel ($2,200). He’s a terrific value play against Nick Martinez, who gave up a .366 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season.

Secondary Plays:

Editor’s Note: Longoria has been scratched from the lineup tonight. Logan Forsythe will bat cleanup and play third in his place.

Evan Longoria (FD: $3100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.157 — OBP: 0.317
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.143 — OBP: 0.301

James Loney (FD: $2600, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.214 — OBP: 0.310
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.103 — OBP: 0.355

San Diego at Arizona

San Diego Arizona
sandiegomlb Odrisamer Despaigne arizonamlb Rubby De La Rosa
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SD (-115) 9
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.254 0.714 0.322 0.115 SP vs. Left 0.298 0.832 0.364 0.146
SP vs. Right 0.209 0.558 0.255 0.209 SP vs. Right 0.274 0.792 0.348 0.193
Batter Splits SD BvP SD vs R Batter Splits ARI BvP ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Odrisamer Despaigne (FD: $5700, DK: $5900)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.45 — K Rate: 12.1% — K/9: 4.22 — BB Rate: 7.2% — GB Rate: 50.8%
2014: SIERA: 4.14 — K Rate: 16.1% — K/9: 6.07 — BB Rate: 7.9% — GB Rate: 52.1%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Despaigne’s numbers are trending in the wrong direction this season. His SIERA is up while his strikeout rate is way down from 2014. He is only averaging 4.2 strikeouts per nine innings, which isn’t going to get it done in daily fantasy baseball. He can safely be avoided tonight against the Diamondbacks in the hitter-friendly Chase Field.

Pitcher Rating:42.9

Rubby De La Rosa (FD: $6200, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.34 — K Rate: 24.4% — K/9: 9.3 — BB Rate: 6.3% — GB Rate: 42.0%
2014: SIERA: 4.21 — K Rate: 16.8% — K/9: 6.55 — BB Rate: 7.9% — GB Rate: 45.7%

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 17)

Analysis: De La Rosa has pitched pretty well this season with a 3.34 SIERA and a K/9 of 9.3. He is getting little love from Vegas though, as he is installed as a small underdog in a game that features a high total of 9.0 runs. Of the two pitching options in this game, De La Rosa has by far the better upside. Both can be avoided though, as this is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night.

Pitcher Rating:55.1

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Matt Kemp (FD: $3500, DK: $4900)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.123 — OBP: 0.330
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.229 — OBP: 0.355

Analysis: Kemp’s numbers against right-handed pitching are down a bit this season, but he had a .382 wOBA and a .229 ISO against righties in 2014. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Rubby De La Rosa, who gave up a .348 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. Kemp also sees a ballpark boost going from Petco Park to Chase Field.

Secondary Plays:

Justin Upton (FD: $4200, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.418 — ISO: 0.351 — OBP: 0.345
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.331

Wil Myers (FD: $3400, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.202 — OBP: 0.275
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.106 — OBP: 0.308

Cory Spangenberg (FD: $2200, DK: $2800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.284 — ISO: 0.115 — OBP: 0.269
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.213 — OBP: 0.306

Arizona

Ender Inciarte (FD: $3200, DK: $3600)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 — ISO: 0.131 — OBP: 0.328
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.097 — OBP: 0.315

Analysis: Chase Field isn’t quite the hitter’s venue that Coors Field is, but it’s still a very favorable park for offensive production. Inciarte is coming off of a big game against the Rockies yesterday and he should be able to keep it going tonight against Odrisamer Despaigne, who gave up a .322 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Inciarte is cheap and offers good speed at the top of the order.

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt (FD: $5100, DK: $5600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.206 — OBP: 0.444
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.249 — OBP: 0.362

David Peralta (FD: $3000, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.353
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.342

Yasmany Tomas (FD: $2900, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.077 — OBP: 0.414

Houston at LA Angels

Houston LA Angels
houstonmlb Collin McHugh laangelsmlb Hector Santiago
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU (-110) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.218 0.609 0.272 0.217 SP vs. Left 0.244 0.606 0.274 0.2
SP vs. Right 0.185 0.556 0.252 0.307 SP vs. Right 0.246 0.732 0.326 0.198
Batter Splits HOU BvP HOU vs L Batter Splits ANA BvP ANA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Collin McHugh (FD: $8400, DK: $8100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.42 — K Rate: 20.2% — K/9: 7.39 — BB Rate: 4.7% — GB Rate: 50.5%
2014: SIERA: 3.14 — K Rate: 25.4% — K/9: 9.14 — BB Rate: 6.6% — GB Rate: 42.1%

LA Angels of Anaheim vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.274 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 19)

Analysis: McHugh is showing that his 2014 campaign wasn’t an aberration. He has pitched well this season with a 3.42 SIERA and a K/9 of 7.4. He keeps his walks down and he produces a lot of ground-ball outs, both of which are good signs from a daily fantasy perspective. The Angels may seem like a great offense, but they are actually ranked 28th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. McHugh is a terrific tournament play tonight and he makes sense as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating:75.8

Hector Santiago (FD: $7200, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.54 — K Rate: 20.3% — K/9: 8.16 — BB Rate: 10.9% — GB Rate: 29.4%
2014: SIERA: 4.38 — K Rate: 19.9% — K/9: 7.63 — BB Rate: 9.7% — GB Rate: 30.7%

Houston Astros vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Santiago is the ultimate GPP play tonight against the Astros. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that faces a team that hits a lot of home runs. That’s a risky proposition, but you have to like his strikeout potential, as the Astros strike out at the 6th-highest rate of any team against left-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:59.7

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Jose Altuve (FD: $4800, DK: $4900)

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.543 — ISO: 0.182 — OBP: 0.590
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.440 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.447

Analysis: Once again, Altuve is an elite fantasy option when the Astros are facing a left-handed pitcher. He has a .543 wOBA and a .182 ISO against southpaws this season. In addition to the high on-base numbers, he also has terrific speed and is a threat to steal a base every time he reaches. He’s priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making him the top play at second base tonight.

Secondary Plays:

Evan Gattis (FD: $3800, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C/OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.263 — ISO: 0.233 — OBP: 0.194
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.419 — ISO: 0.271 — OBP: 0.356

Chris Carter (FD: $2800, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.262 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.250
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.274 — OBP: 0.350

LA Angels

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout (FD: $5200, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.446 — ISO: 0.299 — OBP: 0.422
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.283 — OBP: 0.374

Kole Calhoun (FD: $3300, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.333
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.326

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious