MLB Grind Down: Thursday, October 2nd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Detroit at Baltimore
| Detroit | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Max Scherzer | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Tillman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.685 | 0.305 | 25.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.247 | 0.670 | 0.299 | 17.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.629 | 0.279 | 31.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.672 | 0.299 | 17.40% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP  | DET vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Max Scherzer – This should be one heck of a series. These are two of the best offenses in the American League, but the Tigers certainly have the edge in pitching. The Tigers will throw their ace Max Scherzer out on the mound for Game 1. Scherzer has been terrific down the stretch and has really been locked in since the All-Star Break. During that stretch, he has posted a 2.87 ERA with 106 strikeouts over 94 innings of work. Scherzer hasn’t faced the Orioles this season though and his low ground-ball rate does concern me a bit against an Orioles offense that led the majors in home runs this season. That said, his strikeout potential and the fact that there aren’t many other options put him as the top pitching option tonight. Rating = 8
Salaries: $10800 FD, $22000 DD, $12600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Chris Tillman – Tillman is a pitcher whose ERA looks a lot better than his peripheral stats. Tillman has a low BABIP of .267 and his xFIP of 4.20 is nearly a full run higher than his ERA. He has a low strikeout rate for an ace at only 6.5 per 9 innings. He may have the toughest matchup on the board as the Tigers were ranked 5th in wOBA against right-handed pitching and 3rd in wOBA on the road. Even with a cheap price tag, I would pass on Tillman in Game 1 against the Tigers. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7700 FD, $14450 DD, $9200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Victor Martinez – Martinez is having a career season. He has hit 32 home runs this year while driving in 103 runs. He’s batting .323 with a .390 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and is 4/10 against Chris Tillman in his career. He should see a few RBI opportunities in this one.
Torii Hunter – Hunter has a ton of postseason experience. In his career, he has hit for a .279 average in the postseason with an OBP of .340. Hunter is not going to hit a ton of home runs or steal many bases, but he’s a solid hitter with some of the best hitters in baseball right behind him in the lineup.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez
Baltimore
Adam Jones – Jones has been much better against left-handed pitching this season, but he’s had great success off of Max Scherzer in his career. Jones is 9/18 with a home run and two doubles against him. While the matchup isn’t ideal, don’t be surprised to see the Orioles hit a solo shot or two off of Scherzer.
Nelson Cruz – Cruz finished the season strong. In the month of September, he hit for a .349 batting average and a wOBA of .428. On the season Cruz owns a .356 wOBA against right-handed pitching and he also has good numbers against Scherzer going 8/21 with a home run and a double.
Additional Plays: Nick Markakis
Noto’s Prediction: Detroit 4 – Baltimore 2
Kansas City at LA Angels
| Kansas City | LA Angels | ||||||||
| Jason Vargas | Vegas Moneyline | Jered Weaver | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | LAA (-170) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.661 | 0.296 | 16.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.723 | 0.321 | 19.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.730 | 0.321 | 16.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.210 | 0.619 | 0.277 | 17.90% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jason Vargas – Vargas has struggled down the stretch of the regular season. He posted a 6.57 ERA in the month of September while giving up a .347 wOBA to his opponents. This is also a perfect spot for a letdown game from the Royals after their huge come from behind victory against the A’s in the Wildcard game. Vargas has an average strikeout rate of 6.2 per 9 innings this season and draws an extremely tough matchup against the Angels who are ranked 3rd in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Vargas is a huge underdog and should be avoided in cash games. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6200 FD, $12900 DD, $7200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jered Weaver – Weaver has been a tale of two pitchers this season. His road splits aren’t great, but he has really pitched well at home with a 2.68 ERA and 104 strikeouts over 117 innings of work. Weaver has also held his opponents to a .209 batting average at home. While the Royals aren’t a team that strikes out often, they also don’t draw many walks or hit many home runs. They play small ball and try to nickel and dime their way to scoring runs. If Weaver can provide the Angels with a quality start, he will likely be in line for the win as he should see some run support. He doesn’t have the same strikeout potential as Scherzer, but he’s cheaper and has a better chance of picking up a win. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $17200 DD, $9800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Eric Hosmer – Weaver has been very good at home this season, but he has been vulnerable to hitters from the left side of the plate. Hosmer finished the season strong with a .346 wOBA in the month of September. He also delivered a huge triple that led to the Royals tying up the Wildcard game and they eventually went on to win that game. Momentum in baseball typically goes as far as the next starting pitcher, but we will see if Hosmer can carry any of that into tonight’s game.
Additional Plays: Alex Gordon, Norichika Aoki
LA Angels
Mike Trout – Trout is one of the best hitters in baseball and rivals Miguel Cabrera for the best position player on the board tonight. Trout has mashed left-handed pitching with a .398 wOBA this season and he is a dual-threat with 36 home runs and 16 stolen bases. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trout be much more aggressive on the bases now that we are into the playoffs.
Howie Kendrick – Kendrick is the best dollar for dollar value at second base tonight. He has hit left-handed pitching well this season with a .327 batting average and a .364 wOBA. Kendrick also has a favorable matchup as Jason Vargas has given up a .321 batting average to batters from the right side of the plate.
Additional Plays: Albert Pujols, David Freese, Erick Aybar
Noto’s Prediction: L.A. Angels 5 – Kansas City 3