MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 4th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Cincinnati at Baltimore
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Mike Leake | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Tillman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.353 | 13.70% | SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.657 | 0.295 | 17.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.635 | 0.281 | 21.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.221 | 0.668 | 0.297 | 15.80% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP  | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mike Leake – Leake takes the mound for the Reds tonight in what should be a tough matchup against the Orioles. Leake is having a career year though as he is sporting a 3.38 ERA (3.47 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.8. He is producing a 54% ground ball rate which could help him in tonight’s matchup as the Orioles are a team that hits a lot of HR’s. The stats all line up, but I don’t like targeting pitchers that are on the road facing a very talented offense, especially in hitter-friendly ballparks. For that reason, I will be avoiding Leake tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8000 FD, $14100 DD, $8500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Chris Tillman – Tillman is a solid RH pitcher. While he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (6.2 per 9 innings), he always seems to give his team a chance to win the game. He owns a 3.36 ERA on the season and he’s been able to cut down on HR’s allowed which is one of the big reasons for his great 2014 campaign. Tonight he faces a Reds offense that is ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. The Reds are also the 5th worst offense over the last 30 days. Tillman is a solid target on a Thursday night that features a small slate. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7400 FD, $14100 DD, $8700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
As mentioned above, the Reds offense is ice cold right now. They have not hit RH pitching well as a team and Chris Tillman has managed to hold batters from both sides of the plate under a .300 wOBA this season. Billy Hamilton is in play thanks to his stolen base potential, but I think there are better plays in his price range.
Baltimore
Chris Davis – Leake has pitched well this season, but the one area that he need to improve is his numbers against LH hitters. He has given up a .352 wOBA to LH hitters this season. That bodes well for Chris Davis who finally appears to be out of his prolonged slump. Davis has reached base safely 16 times over his last 10 games and has hit 4 HR’s during that stretch.
Additional Plays: Nick Markakis
Boston at NY Yankees
| Boston | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Brandon Workman | Vegas Moneyline | Chris Capuano | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.757 | 0.336 | 18.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.316 | 0.886 | 0.388 | 15.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.704 | 0.311 | 17.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.694 | 0.303 | 23.90% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Brandon Workman – Workman is coming off of a rough outing against the Mariners. He gave up 10 hits and 7 earned runs and was pulled in the 4th inning. On the season he owns a 4.93 ERA (4.21 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.9. He has a low ground ball rate (39%) and he walks too many batters (3.5 per 9 innings). He has struggled with LH hitters this season which does not bode well for his matchup against a LH heavy Yankees lineup. A fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium could be in for a long night. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5100 FD, $10150 DD, $5200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Chris Capuano – Capuano has given the Yankees more than they could have been hoping for, but he’s not a recommended fantasy option at this stage in his career. He has given up 4+ earned runs in 3 of his last 6 starts and now owns a 4.24 ERA on the season. He does draw a decent matchup against the Red Sox who are ranked 20th vs. LH pitching this season, but he seems like he has more risk than reward tonight. The Yankees and Red Sox typically score a lot of runs when they meet and I’m expecting another high scoring affair tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6000 FD, $12850 DD, $6700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Yoenis Cespedes – Capuano has had reverse splits this season, but that hasn’t been the case throughout his career as he has given up a career .345 wOBA to RH hitters. Cespedes has always had terrific power against LH pitching and he has fit in well with this Red Sox offense. He should have plenty of RBI opportunities tonight.
Additional Plays: Mookie Betts, Mike Napoli
NY Yankees
Brett Gardner – Gardner has had a couple of subpar fantasy outings depsite two great matchups in a row. He’ll look to end that streak tonight against Workman and the Red Sox. Workman has given up a .332 wOBA to LH hitters and, as mentioned above, is a fly ball pitcher. I like Gardner batting 3rd and have him ranked as one of my top OF’s available tonight.
Additional Plays: Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann
Detroit at Cleveland
| Detroit | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Max Scherzer | Vegas Moneyline | Trevor Bauer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.243 | 0.691 | 0.307 | 24.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.726 | 0.325 | 23.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.621 | 0.275 | 34.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.752 | 0.330 | 21.10% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Max Scherzer – Scherzer has been a streaky pitcher this season. After a mid-season roll, he appeared to have regained his form. However, that hasn’t been the case over his last 3 starts. During that stretch, he has given up 12 earned runs. The good news is that he’s still striking out batters at an elite rate (10.6 K’s per 9 innings). On a night with a short slate, Scherzer is in play, but he’s going to have his hands full as he’s facing an Indians offense that is ranked 5th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Dollar for dollar, he’s not the best play on the board, but you can make it work with some of the cheap value plays. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $11000 FD, $21750 DD, $12700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Trevor Bauer – Bauer is one of my favorite pitchers in daily fantasy baseball because he owns an elite strikeout rate (8.7 K’s per 9 innings), yet he is extremely cheap. His low price tag has to do with his mediocre ERA of 3.99, but the strikeouts typically more than make up for the couple of earned runs that he gives up. Bauer has pitched well at home with a 3.07 ERA. He draws a tough matchup against the Tigers who are ranked who are ranked 4th in wOBA vs. RH pitching, but he makes a nice tournament play. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6800 FD, $13350 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – Even though this is a righty/righty matchup, the splits are still in Miggy’s favor. Bauer has given up a .330 wOBA to RH hitters this season and Miggy has always hit RH pitching well. Miggy has 8 hits over his last 3 games and has 2 XBH’s off of Bauer in only 9 career at-bats.
Additional Plays: Ian Kinsler, Victor Martinez
Cleveland
Taking hitters against Max Scherzer is not a daily fantasy baseball strategy that is going to work in the long run. As a team, the Indians hit RH pitching well, but there aren’t any individual hitters that stand out in this matchup.
Toronto at Tampa Bay
| Toronto | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Mark Buehrle | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Odorizzi | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.277 | 0.752 | 0.331 | 14.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.668 | 0.295 | 30.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.290 | 0.760 | 0.335 | 13.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.709 | 0.318 | 21.10% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mark Buehrle – Buerhle is the polar opposite of Bauer. He owns a low ERA (3.50), but he doesn’t strike out very many batters (5.3 K’s per 9 innings). His low strikeout rate really limits his upside. Tonight he is facing a Rays offense that is ranked 14th in wOBA vs. LH pitching. The Rays also make great contact, as a team they have struck out the 6th fewest number of times. Buehrle should have a another average fantasy outing tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6300 FD, $11550 DD, $5500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jake Odorizzi – We have quite a few strikeout artists on the mound tonight, one of which is Odorizzi. He owns an elite strikeout rate of 10.0 per 9 innings. Odorizzi also has terrific splits at home this season with a 2.92 ERA while holding opponents to a .198 batting average. So far in this series, the Blue Jays offense has gotten the best of the Rays pitching staff, but you aren’t going to find another pitcher with Odorizzi’s upside at his price point. I’m going against the grain and predicting a big game from Odorizzi against this talented Blue Jays offense. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8100 FD, $15300 DD, $8200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
The Blue Jays are the #1 ranked offense against RH pitching this season, but they aren’t nearly as potent of an offense away from home. I think Odorizzi cools these Blue Jays bats off. For that reason, I will be avoiding the Blue Jays tonight.
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – Longoria is one of the top wOBA plays tonight. He is facing Buehrle who has given up a .335 wOBA to RH hitters. Longoria, on the other hand, has a .369 wOBA against LH pitching this season. Longo has also been swinging a hot bat with 2 HR’s and 7 RBI’s over his last 6 games.
Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist
Seattle at Texas
| Seattle | Texas | ||||||||
| Roenis Elias | Vegas Moneyline | Scott Baker | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.185 | 0.611 | 0.278 | 25.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.261 | 0.819 | 0.353 | 19.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.737 | 0.327 | 20.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.260 | 0.738 | 0.316 | 11.80% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Roenis Elias – If you look at his game logs, you will see that Elias hasn’t given up more than 2 earned runs in any of his last 7 starts. However, if you look a little bit deeper, you will also see that he has only pitched 6 or more innings in one of those starts. He’s had a big issue with command as evidenced by his 14 walks over his last 4 starts. The strikeout potential is there, but he has to face a Rangers offense that hits LH pitching well and he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. I’m off the Elias train tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6700 FD, $12950 DD, $7800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
Robbie Ross – Ross is an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. On the season he owns a 5.63 ERA with only 46 strikeouts over 70 innings of work. He has given up a .313 batting average to his opponents and should be avoided in all fantasy leagues. Not even a matchup against a LH heavy Mariners lineup puts Ross in play. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5300 FD, $7700 DD, $6400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Kyle Seager – While Seager has much better numbers at home than he does on the road this season, I don’t think it matters where he is playing as he is extremely locked in right now. He is riding an 8-game hitting streak and he’s actually hit LH pitching pretty well this season. The favorable matchup and ballpark boost put Seager in play again tonight.
Additional Plays: Robinson Cano, Austin Jackson
Texas
Adrian Beltre – You get the best of both worlds with Beltre tonight. He is at his best when he is at home (.427 wOBA) and when he is facing a LH pitcher (.418 wOBA). He draws a nice matchup against Elias who has given up a .327 wOBA to RH hitters. Beltre is my odds on favorite to homer tonight.
Additional Plays: Alex Rios, Elvis Andrus