MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 14 - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-14 18:48:44

Philadelphia at NY Mets

Pitcher Grind Down

David Buchanan (FD: $5600, DK: $5400)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.75 / xFIP: 4.14 / SIERA: 4.21
K/9: 5.43 / K%: 0.141 / BB%: 0.064
NYM vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 11

Analysis: Buchanan is not a recommended fantasy option on Tuesday night, even in a decent matchup against the Mets in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Buchanan posted very pedestrian numbers in 2014, finishing with an xFIP of 4.14 and a K/9 of only 5.4. Buchanan is the biggest underdog on the board, as Matt Harvey will be pitching opposite him. Rating = 4

Matt Harvey (FD: $9900, DK: $9300)

Analysis: Harvey looked great in his first start since the 2013 season. He out-pitched Stephen Strasburg in Washington, striking out nine batters in six scoreless innings of work. His pitch count is expected to climb to around 100 on Tuesday, which is a great sign. Harvey is one of the best strikeout pitchers in all of baseball and he should be considered the top overall pitching option on the board. For the upside that he offers, he is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Rating = 9.5

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

NO SECONDARY PLAYS

NY Mets

David Wright (FD: $3800, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.269 / wOBA: 0.308 / ISO: 0.105
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.283 / ISO: 0.094

Analysis: David Buchanan is a reverse splits pitcher that gives up a much higher wOBA to right-handed hitters (.357) than he does to left-handed hitters (.272). While Wright typically has better success against southpaws, he is still a very good hitter against right-handed pitching. He’s a safe cash game play at third base with decent upside in matchup.

Secondary Plays:

Michael Cuddyer (FD: $3000, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.194

Travis d’Arnaud (FD: $3000, DK: $3800) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.317 / ISO: 0.175

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana (FD: $7800, DK: $7900)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.32 / xFIP: 3.37 / SIERA: 3.5
K/9: 8 / K%: 0.215 / BB%: 0.063
CLE vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 24 / K% Rank: 4

Analysis: Quintana is one of the better no-name pitchers in the majors. He finished 2014 with an xFIP of 3.37 and a K/9 of 8.0. He struck out three-and-a-half more batters than he walked last season and he gets to face an Indians’ lineup that has struggled against left-handed pitching this season. The Indians have a left-handed heavy lineup, which should bode well for Quintana. He may have a tough time picking up the win, but he makes an intriguing tournament option against Cleveland. Rating = 6.5

Carlos Carrasco (FD: $9200, DK: $8800)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.55 / xFIP: 2.66 / SIERA: 2.58
K/9: 9.4 / K%: 0.265 / BB%: 0.055
CWS vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 13 / K% Rank: 27

Analysis: Carrasco’s fastball routinely registers in the high 90’s and he can typically keep it up throughout the course of his entire start. He is coming off of a terrific 2014 campaign, where he posted an xFIP of 2.66 and a K/9 of 9.4. Carrasco looked great in his first start of the season, striking out ten batters over 6.1 innings of work. Carrasco offers great upside at his price point and he’s a -134 favorite against the White Sox. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Adam LaRoche (FD: $3200, DK: $3400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.221

Cleveland

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Santana (FD: $3600, DK: $4100) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.381 / ISO: 0.198

LA Angels at Texas

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Rucinski (FD: $6000, DK: $5500)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.91 / xFIP: 3.53 / SIERA: 2.89
K/9: 9.82 / K%: 0.235 / BB%: 0.059
TEX vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 26 / K% Rank: 11

Analysis: Rucinski will be making his first career major league start on Tuesday night. He has made four relief appearances over the last two seasons, but he has only pitched a combined nine innings. Rucinski had decent success at the AA level last season, posting a 2.80 xFIP with a K/9 of 8.5. He certainly has strikeout potential, but I’m always a little weary about targeting pitchers in their first career starts. The total is set at 9.0 runs, which basically tells us everything that we need to know. Rating = 4.5

Nick Martinez (FD: $6600, DK: $4900)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.55 / xFIP: 5.24 / SIERA: 5.22
K/9: 4.94 / K%: 0.126 / BB%: 0.09
LAA vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 18

Analysis: Martinez is not a viable fantasy option on Tuesday night and that’s not likely going to change throughout the course of the season. He had an awful 2014 campaign, posting an xFIP of 5.24 and a K/9 of only 4.9. There is little to no upside with Martinez and plenty of downside, as he faces a very talented Angels’ lineup in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. He can safely be avoided in all league formats. Rating = 4

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun (FD: $, DK: $4900)

BA: 0.272 / wOBA: 0.341 / ISO: 0.178
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 / ISO: 0.19

Analysis: Calhoun has sat out the last two games with a calf strain, but he is expected to be back in the lineup on Tuesday night. Calhoun is always in play when a right-handed pitcher is on the mound, as he had a .348 wOBA and a .190 ISO against righties last season. Calhoun also draws a favorable matchup against Nick Martinez, who gave up a .366 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Target quite a few of the Angels here, as they have one of the highest team totals on the board.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout (FD: $5000, DK: $6000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.404 / ISO: 0.283

Matt Joyce (FD: $2500, DK: $4400) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.174 / ISO: 0.118

Texas

Leonys Martin (FD: $2900, DK: $4800)

BA: 0.274 / wOBA: 0.306 / ISO: 0.09
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.32 / ISO: 0.106

Analysis: Martin should be batting leadoff again on Tuesday, as the Rangers face right-handed Drew Rucinski, who will be making his first career start. Martin hits right hand pitching well and he has great speed on the bases. He’s a FanDuel special here, as he is listed at a bargain-bin price of only $2,900.

Secondary Plays:

Shin-Soo Choo (FD: $3000, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.329 / ISO: 0.14

Jake Smolinski (FD: $2600, DK: $3300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.092

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs

Pitcher Grind Down

Anthony Desclafani (FD: $6300, DK: $6000)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 6.27 / xFIP: 3.8 / SIERA: 3.7
K/9: 7.09 / K%: 0.178 / BB%: 0.034
CHC vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 25 / K% Rank: 29

Analysis: Desclafani pitched pretty well in his first start of the season, striking out six batters over six innings of work against the Pirates. His 6.27 ERA from last season is a bit misleading, as his xFIP and SIERA were both two-and-a-half full runs lower. While I do like the price point on Desclafani, he’s not in a great spot against the Cubs. He will likely see very little run support with Jake Arrieta pitching opposite him. Rating = 5

Jake Arrieta (FD: $9400, DK: $8600)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 2.53 / xFIP: 2.73 / SIERA: 2.83
K/9: 9.59 / K%: 0.272 / BB%: 0.067
CIN vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 28 / K% Rank: 18

Analysis: Arrieta had to pitch against St. Louis in his season debut but pitched extremely well, striking out seven batters in seven shutout innings. He is coming off of a career season in 2014, where he posted an xFIP of 2.73 and a K/9 of 9.6. He had an elite strikeout rate of 27.2% last season. He’s one of the top pitching options on the board on Tuesday night, especially when you factor in his price point. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto (FD: $4300, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.093

Chicago Cubs

Chris Coghlan (FD: $3600, DK: $3700)

BA: 0.283 / wOBA: 0.353 / ISO: 0.169
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 / ISO: 0.186

Analysis: Coghlan has been red-hot in his last three games with five hits, four of which went for extra bases. Coghlan has been batting clean-up in the last couple of games and he’ll likely be there again on Tuesday night. He actually has great power against right-handed pitching, as he finished 2014 with a .362 wOBA and a .186 ISO against righties.

Secondary Plays:

Dexter Fowler (FD: $3600, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.116

Miguel Montero (FD: $3100, DK: $3700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.322 / ISO: 0.131

Oakland at Houston

Pitcher Grind Down

Kendall Graveman (FD: $5500, DK: $5100)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 3.86 / xFIP: 1.68 / SIERA: 1.08
K/9: 7.71 / K%: 0.222 / BB%: 0
HOU vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 23 / K% Rank: 30

Analysis: Graveman was rocked in his first start of the season, giving up eight hits and seven runs in only 3.1 innings of work. While he does draw a favorable matchup against the strikeout-happy Astros, he is a very risky fantasy option for cash games. Minute Maid Park is a home run-friendly ballpark and Graveman gave up two home runs in his first start against the Rangers. Rating = 4

Brad Peacock (FD: $, DK: $)

Pitching Stats (2014):

ERA: 4.72 / xFIP: 4.56 / SIERA: 4.45
K/9: 8.13 / K%: 0.202 / BB%: 0.119
OAK vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 9 / K% Rank: 3

Analysis: Peacock will draw the start for the Astros on Tuesday night. He has shown good strikeout potential in the past, but he’s also been shelled in quite a few outings. He draws a tough matchup against an A’s lineup that is very patient at the plate. While their lineup has changed a bit, the A’s struck out at the 3rd-lowest rate against right-handed pitching last season. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Ben Zobrist (FD: $3100, DK: $4500)

BA: 0.272 / wOBA: 0.333 / ISO: 0.123
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 / ISO: 0.118

Analysis: Zobrist continues to be one of the most productive second baseman this season. He has gotten off to a quick start and he should be able to keep it rolling against Brad Peacock, who gave up a .348 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Zobrist is still very affordable on FanDuel at a price of only $3,100.

Secondary Plays:

Ike Davis (FD: $2800, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.341 / ISO: 0.159

Stephen Vogt (FD: $2700, DK: $4000) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.148

Mark Canha (FD: $2900, DK: $3400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: .412 / ISO: .211

Houston

Luis Valbuena (FD: $2600, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.249 / wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.186
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.208

Analysis: Valbuena is one of the best punt options at any position tonight. He is listed at a bargain-bin price of only $2,600 on FanDuel. He has great power against right-handed pitching, as he posted a .355 wOBA and a .208 ISO last season. He also draws a favorable matchup against Kendall Graveman.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Altuve (FD: $3900, DK: $4700) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.1

Jed Lowrie (FD: $2800, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.314 / ISO: 0.112

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