MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 21st - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-21 21:34:05

San Diego at Colorado

Pitcher Grind Down

Brandon Morrow (FD: $6800, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 5.67 / xFIP: 4.06 / SIERA: 4.23
K/9: 8.1 / K%: 0.203 / BB%: 0.122

COL vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.347 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 0.174 (Rank: 5)

Even if Brandon Morrow had a 0.00 xFIP with a K/9 of 12.0, I wouldn’t target him against the Rockies in Coors Field. I have a strict no pitchers in Coors policy that I adhere to. The total of this game is set at 10.0 runs, which is easily the highest run total on the board. Avoid Morrow and stack the Rockies’ bats against him. Rating = 2

Tyler Matzek (FD: $6100, DK: $5400)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.05 / xFIP: 3.92 / SIERA: 4.08
K/9: 6.96 / K%: 0.181 / BB%: 0.088

SD vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 0.213 (Rank: 17)

The Padres dropped a 14-burger on the Rockies last night in Coors Field. Do you really want to take a left-handed pitcher against San Diego right now? I didn’t think so. Matzek is right there with Brandon Morrow as the worst pitching option in the player pool tonight. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Matt Kemp (FD: $4300, DK: $5700)

Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
BA: 0.287 / wOBA: 0.369 / ISO: 0.22
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 / ISO: 0.196

Kemp is going to be one of the most popular plays at any position tonight, especially on FanDuel. He is coming off of a 3-for-4 outing with 3 RBIs and 3 runs in last night’s win over the Rockies. His price is still only $4,300 on FanDuel and he draws a favorable matchup against Tyler Matzek in Coors Field. Don’t overthink this one; target Kemp and the rest of the right-handed hitters in the Padres’ lineup.

Additional Plays:

Justin Upton (FD: $4600, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.423 / ISO: 0.311

Wil Myers (FD: $3700, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.240 / ISO: 0.081

Derek Norris (FD: $3000, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility (FD: C, DK: C)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.379 / ISO: 0.159

Will Middlebrooks (FD: $3300, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.201 / ISO: 0.057

Jedd Gyorko (FD: $2900, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility (FD: 2B, DK: 2B/3B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.305 / ISO: 0.098

Colorado

Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $5300, DK: $6000)

Position Eligibility (FD: SS, DK: SS)
BA: 0.34 / wOBA: 0.444 / ISO: 0.263
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404 / ISO: 0.207

Shortstop is easily the thinnest position on the board tonight and the difference between Tulowitzki and the other options is massive. This is one of the few times that I don’t mind spending up for Tulowitzki against a right-handed pitcher. Tulowitzki loves playing at Coors Field, as he posted an incredible .530 wOBA at home last season. Target Tulowitzki and don’t be afraid to stack the Rockies tonight against Brandon Morrow.

Additional Plays:

Nolan Arenado (FD: $4700, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.339 / ISO: 0.188

Carlos Gonzalez (FD: $3800, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.22

Charlie Blackmon (FD: $4200, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.350 / ISO: 0.158

Justin Morneau (FD: $4000, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.4 / ISO: 0.196

Texas at Arizona

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Martinez (FD: $7300, DK: $5300)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.55 / xFIP: 5.24 / SIERA: 5.22
K/9: 4.94 / K%: 0.126 / BB%: 0.09

ARI vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 0.221 (Rank: 22)

Martinez is an easy pitcher to avoid on a full slate. He has a below-average xFIP, that was actually higher than his K/9 last season. He walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out and he draws a difficult matchup against the Diamondbacks in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. Rating = 3

Chase Anderson (FD: $6600, DK: $5500)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.01 / xFIP: 3.67 / SIERA: 3.78
K/9: 8.27 / K%: 0.216 / BB%: 0.082

TEX vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.271 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 0.201 (Rank: 12)

Anderson is a sneaky value play tonight against the Rangers. He finished last season with a respectable 3.67 xFIP and a K/9 of 8.3. He’s one of the four sizable favorites on the mound tonight and he faces a Rangers’ offense that is currently ranked 25th in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Anderson is far from a sure thing tonight, but he offers good upside at his price point, making him an intriguing tournament play. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Adrian Beltre (FD: $3400, DK: $4800)

Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
BA: 0.324 / wOBA: 0.38 / ISO: 0.168
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 / ISO: 0.160

Chase Anderson is a reverse-splits pitcher. In 2014, he gave up a .363 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. That bodes well for Adrian Beltre, who is extremely cheap on FanDuel ($3,400). Beltre has better power against left-handed pitching, but his numbers against righties aren’t anything to scoff at: .366 wOBA and a .160 ISO in 2014.

Additional Plays:

Leonys Martin (FD: $3700, DK: $4700)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.320 / ISO: 0.106

Shin-Soo Choo (FD: $2800, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.329 / ISO: 0.14

Arizona

David Peralta (FD: $3000, DK: $4400)

Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
BA: 0.286 / wOBA: 0.337 / ISO: 0.164
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 / ISO: 0.194

The Diamondbacks are one of the best sources for value tonight, at least on FanDuel. They are facing Nick Martinez who 1. doesn’t strike many batters out and 2. struggles against batters from the left side of the plate. In 2014, Martinez gave up a .366 wOBA to left-handed hitters. David Peralta, Jake Lamb, and Ender Inciarte are all in play here.

Additional Plays:

Jake Lamb (FD: $3100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.305 / ISO: 0.154

Ender Inciarte (FD: $3200, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.307 / ISO: 0.097

Oakland at LA Angels

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Pomeranz (FD: $6600, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.35 / xFIP: 3.65 / SIERA: 3.62
K/9: 8.35 / K%: 0.23 / BB%: 0.094

LAA vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.270 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 0.216 (Rank: 18)

Through his first two starts of the season, Pomeranz has a 2.90 xFIP with a K/9 of 8.3. While he is a good left-handed pitcher, he has only thrown more than 95 pitches one time since the start of 2014. I typically like to target pitchers that are able to pitch deep into games. Pomeranz still has an attractive price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he’s not a pitcher that is on my radar tonight. Rating = 5

Hector Santiago (FD: $7200, DK: $6500)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 3.75 / xFIP: 4.57 / SIERA: 4.38
K/9: 7.63 / K%: 0.199 / BB%: 0.097

OAK vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.344 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 0.179 (Rank: 8)

At this point, I want nothing to do with this A’s lineup. They continue to put up a ton of runs night in and night out. They are ranked fifth in wOBA against left-handed pitching, striking out at the eighth-lowest rate. Santiago has decent strikeout potential in general, but not in tonight’s matchup against Oakland. There are better options at his price point. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

NO ELITE PLAYS

Additional Plays:

Billy Butler (FD: $3200, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.368 / ISO: 0.139

Mark Canha (FD: $3000, DK: $3300)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: 1B/OF)

LA Angels

Mike Trout (FD: $5700, DK: $5400)

Mike Trout (FD: $5700, DK: $5400)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.398 / ISO: 0.248

Trout is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight. With the game in Coors Field, he is going to be criminally under-owned in tournaments, despite facing a lefty. Trout finished the 2014 season with a .398 wOBA and a .248 ISO against southpaws. He hits for average, he hits for power, and he has great speed.

Additional Plays:

David Freese (FD: $3100, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.17

Erick Aybar (FD: $2700, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility (FD: SS, DK: SS)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.273 / ISO: 0.093

Houston at Seattle

Pitcher Grind Down

Collin McHugh (FD: $8900, DK: $8100)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.73 / xFIP: 3.11 / SIERA: 3.14
K/9: 9.14 / K%: 0.254 / BB%: 0.066

SEA vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 0.217 (Rank: 19)

McHugh has picked up right where he left off in 2014. In his first two starts of the season, he has a 1.43 xFIP with a K/9 of 11.6. He has an elite strikeout rate, yet he manages to keep his walks in check. Last season, he walked only 6.6% of the batters that he faced. Tonight’s game against the Mariners is basically set as a pick ‘em, but of the two pitching options, McHugh is definitely the better play. He deserves consideration in tournaments and as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 7

Taijuan Walker (FD: $6900, DK: $6700)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.61 / xFIP: 3.88 / SIERA: 3.97
K/9: 8.05 / K%: 0.213 / BB%: 0.113

HOU vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.266 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 0.253 (Rank: 29)

Walker has been blown up in each of his first two starts of the season. He has pitched a combined 7.1 innings, while giving up 14 earned runs. He has been one of the Mariners’ top prospects for quite a while now and many were expecting him to take that jump to the next level this season. There is still hope for Walker, but until he can prove that he can turn it around, he can be avoided in cash games. At best, he’s a GPP option tonight against the Astros. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Luis Valbuena (FD: $3200, DK: $3900)

Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 2B/3B)
BA: 0.249 / wOBA: 0.342 / ISO: 0.186
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 / ISO: 0.208

Valbuena hit two home runs against the Mariners last night. He has now hit five home runs on the season. He has great power against right-handed pitching and he gets to face Taijuan Walker, who has been awful in his first two starts of the season. The best part is that Valbuena is still priced under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Additional Plays:

Jose Altuve (FD: $4100, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility (FD: 2B, DK: 2B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.34 / ISO: 0.1

Seattle

NO ELITE PLAYS

Additional Plays:

Robinson Cano (FD: $4000, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility (FD: 2B, DK: 2B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.166

Kyle Seager (FD: $3600, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility (FD: 3B, DK: 3B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.376 / ISO: 0.221

LA Dodgers at San Francisco

Pitcher Grind Down

Brett Anderson (FD: $6800, DK: $6900)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 2.91 / xFIP: 3.55 / SIERA: 3.61
K/9: 6.02 / K%: 0.161 / BB%: 0.072

SF vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.281 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 0.182 (Rank: 10)

Anderson has pitched pretty well in his first two starts with the Dodgers. He has a 3.52 xFIP with a K/9 of 5.6. While he doesn’t have great strikeout potential, he draws a favorable matchup against the Giants in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. The Giants are currently ranked 20th in wOBA against left-handed pitching. Anderson isn’t off my radar, but he’s not really a pitcher that I will have a ton of exposure to tonight either. Rating = 6

Tim Lincecum (FD: $6500, DK: $7300)

Pitching Stats (2014):
ERA: 4.74 / xFIP: 3.81 / SIERA: 3.95
K/9: 7.75 / K%: 0.199 / BB%: 0.094

LAD vs. RH Pitching:
wOBA: 0.37 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 0.203 (Rank: 13)

Lincecum is far from a consistent fantasy option, but he can have a big outing every now and then. He’s a pitcher that I don’t mind targeting when the matchup is right. Unfortunately, that’s not the case tonight against the Dodgers, who are ranked second in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The total for this game is low, but there are better pitching options at this price point. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

NO ELITE PLAYS

Additional Plays:

Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $5000, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility (FD: 1B, DK: 1B)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.236

Jimmy Rollins (FD: $3600, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility (FD: SS, DK: SS)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.326 / ISO: 0.161

Andre Ethier (FD: $2500, DK: $2800)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.314 / ISO: 0.132

San Francisco

Buster Posey (FD: $4000, DK: $4100)

Position Eligibility (FD: C, DK: 1B/C)
BA: 0.311 / wOBA: 0.371 / ISO: 0.179
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 / ISO: 0.214

Derek Norris is an easy plug tonight at catcher, but if you are looking to differentiate your lineup, Posey is a strong alternative. He has great power against left-handed pitching. In 2014, he finished with a .382 wOBA and a .214 ISO against left-handed pitching.

Additional Plays:

Angel Pagan (FD: $3000, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility (FD: OF, DK: OF)
vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.278 / ISO: 0.101