MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 19th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-19 19:19:43

LA Angels at Boston

LA Angels					Boston
Jered Weaver		Vegas Moneyline			Allen Webster		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-140)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.259	0.723	0.320	19.80%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.180	0.579	0.260	17.20%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jered Weaver – Weaver has some awful road splits this season. He has a 4.80 ERA on the road and will be facing a Red Sox offense that is capable of putting up a lot of runs now that they have two HR hitters in their lineup in Ortiz and Cespedes. Weaver is a fly ball pitcher and I expect him to struggle a bit tonight in Fenway Park. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7300 FD, $14650 DD, $8200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $14650 FTD

• Allen Webster – Webster can safely be avoided in all leagues. He has an ERA over 6.00 on the season and he is walking close to 7 batters per 9 innings. Until he can prove that he can pitch at the major league level, continue avoiding him for daily fantasy purposes. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5500 FD, $8850 DD, $5400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $8850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – The man is a BEAST! Plain and simple. He rarely ever has a bad fantasy outing and is coming off of another big game last night as he reached base safely 4 times. His price is starting to come up across the industry, but I still think he’s one of the top cash game plays tonight.

Additional Plays: Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, Erick Aybar

Boston

David Ortiz – As mentioned above, Weaver is a fly ball pitcher (close to 50% fly ball rate). He has already given up 12 HR’s to LH hitters this season and Ortiz is my odds on favorite to homer tonight. He has 2 career HR’s off of Weaver and will look to make it number 3 tonight.

Additional Plays: Brock Holt, Yoenis Cespedes, Dustin Pedroia

Texas at Miami

Texas					Miami
Miles Mikolas		Vegas Moneyline			Jarred Cosart		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIA (-152)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.250	0.702	0.306	12.60%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.716	0.326	16.40%
SP vs. Right	0.339	0.818	0.364	17.20%	SP vs. Right	0.262	0.679	0.301	12.90%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Miles Mikolas – Mikolas has been a boom or bust option in his last few starts. He either seems to dominate or he seems to get rocked. That makes it tough to predict his fantasy output on a nightly basis. While the Marlins do strike out a ton, they are also a good offense at home. With all of the other options on the mound tonight, Mikolas is a deep GPP play at best. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5200 FD, $9200 DD, $5600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Jarred Cosart – Cosart is coming off of a strong start against the Cardinals in which he struck out 3 batters over 7 scoreless innings of work. He sees a huge ballpark boost coming over from Houston and I expect him to pitch well for the remainder of the season. Tonight he faces a Rangers offense that is ranked 23rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching and he’s a sizable favorite. At his price, I think he is in play on multi-pitcher sites and for GPP’s. Rating = 6

Salaries: $5800 FD, $10750 DD, $5100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $10750 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

I’m going to avoid the Rangers tonight. They been one of the coldest offenses in baseball and I expect a strong start from Cosart.

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – The sample size is still relatively small, but Mikolas has been a reverse splits pitcher so far in his major-league stint. He has given up a .390 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. Stanton is expensive, but has multi-HR type of upside and makes a great play in the OF if you can find a way to squeeze him into your lineups.

Additional Plays: Casey McGehee, Christian Yelich

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs

San Francisco					Chicago Cubs
Ryan Vogelsong		Vegas Moneyline			Tsuyoshi Wada		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CHC (-112)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.285	0.761	0.336	18.40%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.240	0.695	0.309	20.10%	SP vs. Right	0.295	0.877	0.376	17.40%
Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SFG vs L		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Ryan Vogelsong – When it comes to Wrigley Field in the summer time, the very first thing that you should check is the wind direction. It looks like the wind will be calmly blowing out to right field tonight. This has caused a tiny shift in the total which is now set at 8.0 runs instead of 7.5. Vogelsong has pitched well this month, but he has struggled on the road with a 4.37 ERA. I think there are better options for cash games, but I wouldn’t rule him out as a tournament play against the Cubs who are a strikeout happy ball club. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $13250 DD, $7600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $13250 FTD

• Tsuyoshi Wada – Wada continues to surprise us. Everyone keeps waiting for him to implode, but it just hasn’t happened yet. He is boasting a 3.15 ERA this season with a K/9 of 7.9. He has been extremely efficient against LH hitters holding them to a .136 batting average. He draws a favorable matchup against the Giants who are ranked 20th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Now, with all that said, I’m still going to be avoiding him tonight outside of tournaments. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6000 FD, $10900 DD, $6500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $10900 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Even though Wada has pitched well this season, he is giving up a .343 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. Posey has always hit LH pitching well and should be one of the more popular plays at catcher tonight.

Additional Plays: Michael Morse

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Vogelsong has given up a .332 wOBA to LH hitters this season and the wind is blowing out to right field. Not that Rizzo needs help to hit HR’s, but the wind can turn a deep fly ball into a HR. Rizzo has hit one deep off of Vogelsong already and is a solid option at 1B tonight.

Additional Plays: Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara

Cleveland at Minnesota

Cleveland					Minnesota
Trevor Bauer		Vegas Moneyline			Kyle Gibson		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CLE (-114)			RIGHT		8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.260	0.735	0.325	22.60%	SP vs. Left	0.281	0.721	0.320	9.20%
SP vs. Right	0.277	0.796	0.346	20.20%	SP vs. Right	0.203	0.568	0.256	18.10%
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Trevor Bauer – Bauer is always in play in daily fantasy baseball because he has two things in his favor: a cheap price tag and a high K-rate. With Bauer, you can typically expect him to give up a few runs, but he’s averaging 8.5 K’s per 9 innings which more than makes up for a few earned runs, especially for a pitcher at his price point. I think Cosart is probably a safer play in the same price range, but Bauer makes a terrific tournament play if you want to pair him with one of the aces on the mound tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5900 FD, $12350 DD, $5700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12350 FTD

• Kyle Gibson – Gibson has a similar ERA to Bauer, but is averaging almost 4 less K’s per 9 innings. That is a huge difference. Gibson has limited upside and is facing an Indians offense that is ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. There is more risk than reward with Gibson tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5600 FD, $11050 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $11050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Michael Brantley – Gibson hasn’t been awful against LH hitters this season, but will have his hands full with the Indians who are one of the better hitting teams against RH pitching this season. Brantley is mashing RH pitching to a tune of a .351 batting average and a .422 wOBA this season.

Additional Plays: Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Minnesota

Kennys Vargas – Vargas has been an automatic plug-in for me at 1B on FanDuel. He is still listed at the minimum salary level despite being a very productive fantasy option. You aren’t going to find any other clean-up hitter with as much power as Vargas has at his price point. He’s a no-brainer at 1B tonight on sites where he is still minimum salary.

Additional Plays: Danny Santana, Brian Dozier

Toronto at Milwaukee

Toronto					Milwaukee
J.A. Happ		Vegas Moneyline			Mike Fiers		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		MIL (-158)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.210	0.720	0.321	24.70%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.282	0.779	0.344	16.80%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• J.A. Happ – Happ is one of my least favorite pitchers on the board tonight. It’s pretty simple really: Happ struggles against RH hitters and the Brewers lineup is loaded with talented RH bats. Gomez, Braun, Lucroy, Davis, and Weeks just to name a few. Plus, this game will be played in the HR-friendly Miller Park. Rating = 3

Salaries: $ FD, $12750 DD, $6600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $12750 FTD

• Mike Fiers – Fiers is coming off of a huge performance against the Cubbies. He struck out 14 batters over 6 scoreless innings of work. He has had a terrific K-rate regardless of the level of competition. While the Blue Jays are one of the better hitting teams against RH pitching, Fiers is cheap and offers great upside. Rating = 7

Salaries: $5400 FD, $9600 DD, $8500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Reyes – Reyes is really the only Blue Jays bat that I will be heavily targeting tonight. He has 17 hits over his last 10 games and also gives you the added bonus of stolen base potential.

Additional Plays: None

Milwaukee

Jonathan Lucroy – The Brewers are one of my favorite offenses to target tonight. I love all of the RH bats in this lineup as Happ has been awful against righties this season. Lucroy has mashed LH pitching throughout his career and I have him ranked as my #1 catcher tonight, even above Buster Posey who is also facing a lefty.

Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, Aramis Ramirez, Khris Davis, Rickie Weeks

MLB Grind Down Page 2 – Page 3