MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 2 - Page Three
Atlanta at Arizona – 9:40 PM EST
| Atlanta | Arizona | ||||||||
 | Shelby Miller |  | Josh Collmenter | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ATL (-106) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.671 | 0.296 | 0.165 | SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.767 | 0.335 | 0.12 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.209 | 0.635 | 0.285 | 0.185 | SP vs. Right | 0.224 | 0.676 | 0.294 | 0.181 |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Shelby Miller (FD: $9100, DK: $8300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 67 — SIERA: 3.92 — K Rate: 19.1% — K/9: 6.58 — BB Rate: 7.0% — FB Rate: 33.3% — HR/FB: 6.6%
2014: IP: 183 — SIERA: 4.60 — K Rate: 16.6% — K/9: 6.25 — BB Rate: 9.6% — FB Rate: 41.0% — HR/FB: 9.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 12) — wRC+: 95 (Rank: 13)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.64 (Rank: 30)
Analysis: I’m a broken record when it comes to Shelby Miller. He has been very lucky this season, as evidenced by the wide margin between his ERA (1.48) and his SIERA (3.92). He has an average strikeout rate with decent command at best. The runs will eventually start piling up against him and that very well could start tonight against a Diamondbacks’ offense that is ranked above the major league average in wOBA, strikeout rate, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:58.8
Josh Collmenter (FD: $6100, DK: $5600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 57 — SIERA: 4.70 — K Rate: 11.9% — K/9: 4.58 — BB Rate: 3.7% — FB Rate: 38.3% — HR/FB: 11.7%
2014: IP: 179 — SIERA: 4.18 — K Rate: 16.0% — K/9: 5.77 — BB Rate: 5.4% — FB Rate: 39.9% — HR/FB: 8.3%
Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 16.6% (Rank: 3) — wRC+: 95 (Rank: 13)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.76 (Rank: 19)
Analysis: Collmenter is an easy pitcher to avoid in daily fantasy baseball. He owns a 4.70 SIERA with a low K/9 of 4.6. He draws a difficult pitching matchup tonight against the Braves, who have the 3rd-lowest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. This game has a high total of 8.5 runs and I’ll be avoiding both pitchers in this one.
Pitcher Rating:39.6
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman (FD: $3200, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 209 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.190 — wRC+: 136
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 708 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 150
Analysis: Freeman is one of the best value plays on the board tonight on FanDuel. He is only $3,200 even though he has a .370 wOBA and a .190 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He gets a ballpark boost tonight in Chase Field and he draws a favorable matchup against Josh Collmenter, who has given up a .335 wOBA to left-handed hitters.
Secondary Plays:
Jace Peterson (FD: $2700, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 175 — wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.076 — wRC+: 94
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 58 — wOBA: 0.080 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: -56
Andrelton Simmons (FD: $2300, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 201 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.145 — wRC+: 108
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 576 — wOBA: 0.267 — ISO: 0.077 — wRC+: 67
Arizona
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Paul Goldschmidt (FD: $5700, DK: $5500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 210 — wOBA: 0.460 — ISO: 0.312 — wRC+: 192
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 479 — wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.249 — wRC+: 144
Ender Inciarte (FD: $2900, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 204 — wOBA: 0.323 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 100
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 447 — wOBA: 0.307 — ISO: 0.097 — wRC+: 90
Tampa Bay at LA Angels – 10:05 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | LA Angels | ||||||||
 | Chris Archer |  | C.J. Wilson | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-110) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.598 | 0.272 | 0.235 | SP vs. Left | 0.196 | 0.57 | 0.262 | 0.227 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.645 | 0.292 | 0.233 | SP vs. Right | 0.27 | 0.751 | 0.334 | 0.18 |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs L | Batter Splits | LAA BvP | ANA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Archer (FD: $9700, DK: $8900)
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 68 — SIERA: 2.67 — K Rate: 30.7% — K/9: 10.85 — BB Rate: 7.5% — FB Rate: 27.2% — HR/FB: 9.1%
2014: IP: 194 — SIERA: 3.80 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 8.8% — FB Rate: 31.1% — HR/FB: 6.9%
LA Angels of Anaheim vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 14) — wRC+: 91 (Rank: 19)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.73 (Rank: 24)
Analysis: On paper, Archer is one of the best pitching options on the board tonight. He has been dominant this season with a 2.67 SIERA and a K/9 of 10.9. He also draws one of the best matchups on the board, as the Angels are ranked 26th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The upside with Archer is there, but the Angels’ offense has been much better in recent weeks. Given the fact that he’s not a big favorite, he’s a better play on multi-pitcher sites than he is on single-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating:80.8
C.J. Wilson (FD: $8200, DK: $7600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 65 — SIERA: 4.21 — K Rate: 18.3% — K/9: 6.78 — BB Rate: 7.8% — FB Rate: 35.2% — HR/FB: 5.9%
2014: IP: 175 — SIERA: 4.23 — K Rate: 19.8% — K/9: 7.74 — BB Rate: 11.2% — FB Rate: 29.5% — HR/FB: 11.3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.335 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 22.9% (Rank: 21) — wRC+: 120 (Rank: 2)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.86 (Rank: 9)
Analysis: Wilson has held his opponents to two earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts. He hasn’t been as dominant as he was during his time with the Rangers, but he appears to be trending in the right direction. Even though the Rays’ offense is one that we like to pick on, they are actually pretty good against left-handed pitching. They are ranked 4th in wOBA and 2nd in wRC+ against southpaws this season. Wilson is a little overpriced for his matchup.
Pitcher Rating:58.2
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Joey Butler (FD: $2700, DK: $3500)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 72 — wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.269 — wRC+: 151
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 6 — wOBA: 0.172 — ISO: 0.000 — wRC+: 4
Analysis: Butler’s price is finally up to $2,700 FanDuel and $3,500 on DraftKings, but that’s still too cheap. He has been very productive over the last couple of weeks and he owns a .380 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Butler draws a favorable matchup against C.J. Wilson and he’s still one of the best value plays on the board.
Secondary Plays:
Evan Longoria (FD: $3400, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 202 — wOBA: 0.430 — ISO: 0.189 — wRC+: 187
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 700 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.175 — wRC+: 132
LA Angels
NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS
NY Yankees at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST
| NY Yankees | Seattle | ||||||||
 | CC Sabathia |  | Mike Montgomery | ||||||
| LEFT | Left | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SEA (-104) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.147 | 0.447 | 0.204 | 0.26 | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.328 | 0.915 | 0.395 | 0.206 | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
CC Sabathia (FD: $6900, DK: $8000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 60 — SIERA: 3.63 — K Rate: 19.6% — K/9: 7.61 — BB Rate: 4.6% — FB Rate: 33.7% — HR/FB: 15.4%
2014: IP: 46 — SIERA: 3.07 — K Rate: 23.0% — K/9: 9.39 — BB Rate: 4.8% — FB Rate: 29.7% — HR/FB: 23.3%
Seattle Mariners vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.329 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 5) — wRC+: 115 (Rank: 3)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.88 (Rank: 7)
Analysis: Sabathia has pitched pretty well this season, posting a 3.63 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.6. He doesn’t walk many batters and he has a decent strikeout rate. His biggest problem since the start of last season has been home runs. He had a HR/FB rate of 23.3% last season and he has a HR/FB rate of 15.4% this season. Outside of Nelson Cruz, the Mariners don’t hit that many home runs. They also have quite a few left-handed hitters in their lineup. Sabathia is a sneaky tournament play tonight in Seattle.
Pitcher Rating:64.0
Mike Montgomery (FD: N/A, DK: N/A)
New York Yankees vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 9) — wRC+: 96 (Rank: 21)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.92 (Rank: 4)
Analysis: Montgomery will be making his major league debut tonight. He’s not available in the player pool tonight though, so you can’t roster him even if you want to. In nine minor league starts this season, Montgomery has posted a 3.29 FIP with a K/9 of 8.0. He’s a decent pitching prospect, so we may want to take a wait and see approach with him.
Pitcher Rating:48.5
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Mark Teixeira (FD: $3500, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 193 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.302 — wRC+: 151
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 508 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.138 — wRC+: 94
Brett Gardner (FD: $3300, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 188 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 94
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 636 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.091 — wRC+: 96
Seattle
Nelson Cruz (FD: $4300, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 207 — wOBA: 0.734 — ISO: 0.710 — wRC+: 396
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 678 — wOBA: 0.416 — ISO: 0.255 — wRC+: 169
Analysis: CRUZ!! Nelson is always in play when there is a left-handed pitcher on the mound. He owns a ridiculous .734 wOBA and a .710 ISO against southpaws this season. He draws a favorable matchup against home run-prone CC Sabathia, who has given up a .395 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Cruz is one of the top plays at any position tonight.
Secondary Plays:
Austin Jackson (FD: $2300, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 125 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 134
2014 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 656 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.080 — wRC+: 110
NY Mets at San Diego – 10:10 PM EST
| NY Mets | San Diego | ||||||||
 | Noah Syndergaard |  | Ian Kennedy | ||||||
| Right | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-117) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.186 | 0.557 | 0.243 | 0.125 | SP vs. Left | 0.251 | 0.762 | 0.332 | 0.233 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.661 | 0.288 | 0.302 | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.699 | 0.31 | 0.246 |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SD vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Noah Syndergaard (FD: $8300, DK: $8100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 24 — SIERA: 3.52 — K Rate: 21.8% — K/9: 8.03 — BB Rate: 5.0% — FB Rate: 38.9% — HR/FB: 3.6%
San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.289 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% (Rank: 24) — wRC+: 86 (Rank: 25)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.81 (Rank: 11)
Analysis: Syndergaard is coming off of a career performance against the Phillies. Not only did he pitch a gem, but he had three hits, including a deep home run to center field. He has a 3.52 SIERA on the season with a K/9 of 8.0. He has not been phased by the major leagues in his rookie season and he draws one of the best pitching matchups in baseball tonight. The Padres are ranked 28th in wOBA and 24th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Syndergaard is a strong play tonight, although he’s best suited as a tournament play or as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.
Pitcher Rating:78.1
Ian Kennedy (FD: $7000, DK: $7400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 39 — SIERA: 3.92 — K Rate: 21.4% — K/9: 8.54 — BB Rate: 8.1% — FB Rate: 37.4% — HR/FB: 27.9%
2014: IP: 201 — SIERA: 3.47 — K Rate: 24.5% — K/9: 9.27 — BB Rate: 8.3% — FB Rate: 37.7% — HR/FB: 7.8%
New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 29) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 18) — wRC+: 85 (Rank: 27)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.83 (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Kennedy may have an ERA over 7.00 on the season, but he has pitched much better than that. His stats actually look a lot like they did in 2014. He owns a 3.92 SIERA with a K/9 of 8.5. He draws a terrific matchup against the Mets, who are ranked 29th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Kennedy will get overlooked tonight, making him a terrific tournament play at home in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
Pitcher Rating:71.2
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Daniel Murphy (FD: $2800, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 196 — wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.147 — wRC+: 118
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 642 — wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.120 — wRC+: 113
San Diego
NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS
Pittsburgh at San Francisco – 10:15 PM EST
| Pittsburgh | San Francisco | ||||||||
 | A.J. Burnett |  | Chris Heston | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| SFG (-110) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.736 | 0.331 | 0.190 | SP vs. Left | 0.349 | 0.965 | 0.416 | 0.097 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.688 | 0.306 | 0.226 | SP vs. Right | 0.214 | 0.573 | 0.259 | 0.254 |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SF vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
A.J. Burnett (FD: $9400, DK: $9200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 64 — SIERA: 3.33 — K Rate: 23.0% — K/9: 8.21 — BB Rate: 7.8% — FB Rate: 24.0% — HR/FB: 4.8%
2014: IP: 213 — SIERA: 4.00 — K Rate: 20.3% — K/9: 8.00 — BB Rate: 10.3% — FB Rate: 28.6% — HR/FB: 11.3%
San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 7) — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 5) — wRC+: 108 (Rank: 3)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.70 (Rank: 26)
Analysis: I always hate targeting pitchers that have a much lower ERA than SIERA. The problem is twofold: 1. The pitcher is likely going to be overpriced because his earned run average is low and 2. The pitcher will likely experience some regression in the near future. That’s the case with Burnett this season. He has pitched very well, but I’m not buying into his 1.81 ERA. His 3.33 SIERA is more predictive of what we can expect from Burnett the rest of the season. He’s a bit overpriced for his matchup against the Giants, who are ranked 7th or better in wOBA, strikeout rate, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Pitcher Rating:71.4
Chris Heston (FD: $6900, DK: $5300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: IP: 61 — SIERA: 3.48 — K Rate: 18.9% — K/9: 7.19 — BB Rate: 5.8% — FB Rate: 23.7% — HR/FB: 13.3%
2014: IP: 5 — SIERA: 4.50 — K Rate: 16.7% — K/9: 6.75 — BB Rate: 12.5% — FB Rate: 0.0% — HR/FB: 0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 14) — wRC+: 94 (Rank: 16)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.80 (Rank: 14)
Analysis: Heston is coming off of the best start in his young career. He threw 7.1 shutout innings while striking out six batters against the Braves. He’s still underpriced across the industry, especially on DraftKings ($5,300). On the season, Heston has a 3.48 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.2. He has shown good command and he gets to pitch at home in the pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. He offers great value at the price, but we typically like to spend up on pitching in daily fantasy baseball.
Pitcher Rating:65.7
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Neil Walker (FD: $2800, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 196 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 112
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 571 — wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.222 — wRC+: 135
Analysis: Walker draws a favorable matchup against Chris Heston, who has given up a .386 wOBA to left-handed hitters since the start of 2014. During that same stretch, Walker has posted a .355 wOBA against right-handed pitching. He’s a great value at second base tonight, especially on FanDuel ($2,800).
Secondary Plays
Gregory Polanco (FD: $3000, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 184 — wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.125 — wRC+: 98
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 312 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.123 — wRC+: 110
San Francisco
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Brandon Belt (FD: $3800, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 176 — wOBA: 0.418 — ISO: 0.260 — wRC+: 174
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 235 — wOBA: 0.335 — ISO: 0.240 — wRC+: 120
Nori Aoki (FD: $2800, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 214 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.112 — wRC+: 132
2014 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 549 — wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.076 — wRC+: 88