MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 12 - Page Two
Atlanta at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM EST
| Atlanta | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Michael Foltynewicz |  | Anthony Desclafani | ||||||
| Right | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-148) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.319 | 0.892 | 0.391 | 0.194 | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.71 | 0.307 | 0.162 | ||||
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Mike Foltynewicz (FD: $6900, DK: $5900)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.97 — K Rate: 18.8% — K/9: 7.84 — BB Rate: 12.5% — GB Rate: 33.3%
2014: SIERA: 4.38 — K Rate: 16.7% — K/9: 6.75 — BB Rate: 8.3% — GB Rate: 28.6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Foltynewicz will be making his third start of the season. In his first two starts, he has posted a 4.97 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.8. He has yet to pitch more than 5.1 innings though and he often struggles with his command, as evidenced by his walk rate of 12.5%. The Reds’ offense hasn’t been great to start the season, but they are still a very capable offense, especially at home. Foltynewicz can be avoided in all league formats.
Pitcher Rating:44.2
Anthony DeSclafani (FD: $7200, DK: $7300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.58 — K Rate: 18.2% — K/9: 6.75 — BB Rate: 10.1% — GB Rate: 40.6%
2014: SIERA: 3.70 — K Rate: 17.8% — K/9: 7.09 — BB Rate: 3.4% — GB Rate: 35.5%
Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 15.6% (Rank: 1)
Analysis: DeSclafani has given up seven earned runs over his last two starts, after only giving up three earned runs in his first four starts. He has a decent K/9 of 6.8, but his SIERA of 4.58 needs some improvement. He is a sizable favorite tonight against the Braves in a game that features a total of 8.0 runs. At his price, there are better pitching options.
Pitcher Rating:61.7
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman (FD: $3900, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.241 — OBP: 0.385
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.397
Analysis: Freeman is one of the safer plays on the board tonight. While all hitters technically have a floor of zero, Freeman is productive more often than most. He boasts a .410 wOBA and a .241 ISO against right-handed pitching this season and he draws a fantastic matchup against Anthony DeSclafani, who has given up a .381 wOBA to left-handed hitters since the start of 2014.
Secondary Plays:
Kelly Johnson (FD: $2700, DK: $3200)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 3B/OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.290 — OBP: 0.284
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 — ISO: 0.137 — OBP: 0.296
Cincinnati
Joey Votto (FD: $3800, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.462 — ISO: 0.333 — OBP: 0.432
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.342 — ISO: 0.093 — OBP: 0.403
Analysis: There are two great options at first base in this game alone. Both are similarly-priced and both provide similar upside in their matchups. Votto currently boasts a .462 wOBA and a .333 ISO against right-handed pitching and he is playing at home, where he has had terrific splits throughout his career.
Secondary Plays:
Billy Hamilton (FD: $3400, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.239 — ISO: 0.085 — OBP: 0.256
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.285 — ISO: 0.104 — OBP: 0.291
Kansas City at Texas – 8:05 PM EST
| Kansas City | Texas | ||||||||
 | Edinson Volquez |  | Nick Martinez | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-125) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.728 | 0.321 | 0.174 | SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 0.832 | 0.366 | 0.121 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.634 | 0.286 | 0.172 | SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.746 | 0.326 | 0.134 |
| Batter Splits | KC BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Edinson Volquez (FD: $8500, DK: $5600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.13 — K Rate: 19.7% — K/9: 7.23 — BB Rate: 9.2% — GB Rate: 48.1%
2014: SIERA: 4.20 — K Rate: 17.3% — K/9: 6.54 — BB Rate: 8.8% — GB Rate: 50.4%
Texas Rangers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.280 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Volquez has been a serviceable starter for the Royals this season, but his numbers don’t jump off the page. He currently owns a 4.13 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.2. He does produce a lot of ground-ball outs, but his walk rate is a bit higher than we like to see. The funny thing here is his huge price difference on FanDuel and DraftKings. He is nearly $3,000 cheaper on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel tonight. Given his cheap price point, he could make for an interesting SP2 on DraftKings.
Pitcher Rating:58.4
Nick Martinez (FD: $6900, DK: $5400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.70 — K Rate: 9.9% — K/9: 3.68 — BB Rate: 6.0% — GB Rate: 49.6%
2014: SIERA: 5.22 — K Rate: 12.6% — K/9: 4.94 — BB Rate: 9.0% — GB Rate: 32.9%
Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.333 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 4)
Analysis: If there were 20 red flags given out to the pitching options tonight, Martinez might have 15 of them. He’s facing a very potent Royals offense, he’s pitching in a hitter’s venue, and he has one of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball. I have zero interest in Martinez tonight against Kansas City.
Pitcher Rating:26.6
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Eric Hosmer (FD: $4000, DK: $5100)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.463 — ISO: 0.299 — OBP: 0.427
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.132 — OBP: 0.326
Analysis: As you will see below, the Royals provide quite a few fantasy options tonight against Nick Martinez. They make great contact as a team and Martinez rarely strikes batters out. They could hang a big number on the Rangers tonight. My favorite target of the bunch is Hosmer, who has a .463 wOBA and a .299 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Secondary Plays:
Lorenzo Cain (FD: $3300, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.094 — OBP: 0.338
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.092 — OBP: 0.331
Mike Moustakas (FD: $2800, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.129 — OBP: 0.397
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.279
Kendrys Morales (FD: $2700, DK: $4200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.235 — OBP: 0.364
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.259 — ISO: 0.107 — OBP: 0.271
Alcides Escobar (FD: $2500, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.109 — OBP: 0.328
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.079 — OBP: 0.309
Texas
Adrian Beltre (FD: $2900, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.275 — ISO: 0.148 — OBP: 0.258
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.160 — OBP: 0.369
Analysis: Beltre was one of the featured plays yesterday and he didn’t disappoint with a big game against Danny Duffy and the Royals. He remains an elite play tonight on FanDuel, as he is still priced under $3,000. He appears to have put his slow start to the season behind him, as he has four multi-hit games in his last ten.
Secondary Plays:
Prince Fielder (FD: $3000, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.103 — OBP: 0.430
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.301 — ISO: 0.078 — OBP: 0.398
NY Mets at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM EST
| NY Mets | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Noah Syndergaard |  | Jake Arrieta | ||||||
| Right | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (-140) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.195 | 0.554 | 0.251 | 0.298 | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.204 | 0.521 | 0.234 | 0.25 | ||||
| Batter Splits | KC BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Noah Syndergaard (FD: $7100, DK: $7200)
Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 25.9% (Rank: 30)
Analysis: Today is a special day. It’s National Syndergaard Day! Syndergaard is the Mets’ top pitching prospect. He will make his major league debut tonight against the Cubs in Chicago. Syndergaard has been terrific in his five minor league starts this season, posting a 3.03 FIP with a K/9 of 10.3. He has averaged at least nine strikeouts per nine innings at every level that he has pitched at over the last four years. Debut starts are always too risky to target in cash games, but he provides great upside as a tournament play tonight against the Cubs.
Pitcher Rating:65.3
Jake Arrieta (FD: $9500, DK: $8600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.01 — K Rate: 25.0% — K/9: 9.24 — BB Rate: 5.9% — GB Rate: 51.9%
2014: SIERA: 2.83 — K Rate: 27.2% — K/9: 9.59 — BB Rate: 6.7% — GB Rate: 49.2%
New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 26)
Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Arrieta has carried his 2014 campaign into this season, posting a 3.01 SIERA and a K/9 of 9.2 in his first six starts this year. He has an elite strikeout rate, a high ground-ball rate, and a low walk rate. Basically, everything checks out for Arrieta. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Mets, who are ranked 26th in wOBA (.290) against right-handed pitching this season. As of now, Arrieta is one of the top pitching options on the board, but that could change depending on the wind strength and direction.
Pitcher Rating:82.7
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda (FD: $3000, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.146 — OBP: 0.337
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.270 — OBP: 0.372
Chicago Cubs
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Anthony Rizzo (FD: $4400, DK: $5200)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.413 — ISO: 0.267 — OBP: 0.410
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.253 — OBP: 0.373
Miguel Montero (FD: $3200, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.200 — OBP: 0.411
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.131 — OBP: 0.348
Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM EST
| Chicago White Sox | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Chris Sale |  | Mike Fiers | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHW (-110) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.165 | 0.393 | 0.183 | 0.367 | SP vs. Left | 0.188 | 0.517 | 0.234 | 0.268 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.608 | 0.272 | 0.289 | SP vs. Right | 0.171 | 0.542 | 0.24 | 0.286 |
| Batter Splits | CWS vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs L | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Sale (FD: $9600, DK: $9400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.83 — K Rate: 21.3% — K/9: 8.56 — BB Rate: 8.2% — GB Rate: 45.2%
2014: SIERA: 2.56 — K Rate: 30.4% — K/9: 10.76 — BB Rate: 5.7% — GB Rate: 40.7%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.261 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 23)
Analysis: Sale will make his first start since being suspended for his involvement in the brawl with the Royals. He has had some bad luck to start the season, but his 3.83 SIERA is still much lower than it has been in recent years. His strikeout rate is also down, although a K/9 of 8.6 is nothing to scoff at. Sale could get back on track tonight against the Brewers, who are ranked 28th in wOBA (.261) and 23rd in strikeout rate (22.8%) against left-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:88.9
Mike Fiers (FD: $7300, DK: $8500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.21 — K Rate: 30.2% — K/9: 12.74 — BB Rate: 10.1% — GB Rate: 33.8%
2014: SIERA: 2.94 — K Rate: 27.7% — K/9: 9.54 — BB Rate: 6.2% — GB Rate: 33.3%
Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 13)
Strikeout Rate: 18.7% (Rank: 9)
Analysis: From one high-strikeout pitcher in Chris Sale to another one in Mike Fiers. Fiers has been terrific this season with a 3.21 SIERA and a K/9 of 12.7. He is striking out 30% of the batters that he is facing! Exclamation point! He may give up a few runs here and there, but his high strikeout rate more than makes up for it. He’s a small underdog tonight against the White Sox, but he deserves consideration in tournaments.
Pitcher Rating:72.2
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu (FD: $3400, DK: $4600)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.352
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.364
Analysis: As long as Abreu is $3,400 on FanDuel, he will continue to find himself in my main cash game lineup (assuming the matchup is decent). He is very underpriced and I will continue to take advantage of it. He has hit right-handed pitching well this season with a .382 wOBA and a .250 ISO. He also sees a small ballpark boost playing in the hitter-friendly Miller Park.
Secondary Plays:
Melky Cabrera (FD: $2700, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.352 — ISO: 0.064 — OBP: 0.391
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.151 — OBP: 0.355
Milwaukee
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun (FD: $4100, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.050 — OBP: 0.348
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.236 — OBP: 0.309
San Francisco at Houston – 8:10 PM EST
| San Francisco | Houston | ||||||||
 | Chris Heston |  | Collin McHugh | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-152) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.218 | 0.609 | 0.272 | 0.217 | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.185 | 0.556 | 0.252 | 0.307 | ||||
| Batter Splits | SF BvP | SF vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chris Heston (FD: $5800, DK: $4800)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.46 — K Rate: 18.1% — K/9: 6.99 — BB Rate: 6.3% — GB Rate: 57.1%
2014: SIERA: 4.50 — K Rate: 16.7% — K/9: 6.75 — BB Rate: 12.5% — GB Rate: 47.1%
Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 24.5% (Rank: 29)
Analysis: Heston has pitched about as well as anyone in the Giants’ organization could have expected. In his first six starts this season, he has posted a 3.46 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.0. While those numbers may not seem special, I do like the fact that he has produced a 57% ground ball rate this season. The Astros are an offense that hits a lot of home runs, but they also strike out a lot. They currently have the second-highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:53.4
Collin McHugh (FD: $8800, DK: $7400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.38 — K Rate: 21.2% — K/9: 7.62 — BB Rate: 4.5% — GB Rate: 49.1%
2014: SIERA: 3.14 — K Rate: 25.4% — K/9: 9.14 — BB Rate: 6.6% — GB Rate: 42.1%
San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 17.2% (Rank: 7)
Analysis: McHugh has pitched well this season with a 3.38 SIERA and a K/9 of 7.6. Those numbers are down a bit from last season, but they are still above average. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Giants, who are ranked 15th in wOBA (.311) against right-handed pitching. He’s a small favorite here and his price is more than reasonable, especially on DraftKings ($7,400).
Pitcher Rating:76.3
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Angel Pagan (FD: $, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.103 — OBP: 0.326
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.082 — OBP: 0.374
Houston
Luis Valbuena (FD: $2900, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.256 — OBP: 0.308
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.208 — OBP: 0.347
Analysis: The sample size is still small, but Chris Heston has given up a .419 wOBA to left-handed hitters since the start of 2014. Meanwhile, Valbuena has posted a .349 wOBA and a .256 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. His price is down and he is one of the top value plays at his position.
Secondary Plays:
Jose Altuve (FD: $4600, DK: $4500)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.149 — OBP: 0.313
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.356