MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 19 - Page Two

Tampa Bay at Atlanta – 7:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay Atlanta
tampabaymlb Erasmo Ramirez atlantamlb Michael Foltynewicz
RIGHT Right
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBR (-108) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.257 0.743 0.335 0.171 SP vs. Left 0.36 0 0.463 0.129
SP vs. Right 0.287 0 0.374 0.193 SP vs. Right 0.217 0.602 0.27 0.25
Batter Splits TB BvP TB vs R Batter Splits ATL BvP ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Erasmo Ramirez (FD: $5100, DK: $5100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.75 — K Rate: 19.1% — K/9: 7.4 — BB Rate: 8.6% — FB Rate: 26.8% — HR/FB: 10.5%
2014: SIERA: 4.51 — K Rate: 17.8% — K/9: 7.17 — BB Rate: 10.1% — FB Rate: 43.2% — HR/FB: 12.7%

Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 15.6% (Rank: 2)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.73 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Ramirez has better numbers than I would have expected him to, but that doesn’t mean that I will be targeting him in daily fantasy baseball anytime soon. He has a 3.75 SIERA with a K/9 of 7.4 this season. He struggles with his command at times though and he tends to give up a lot of home runs. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Braves, who are ranked 11th in wOBA (.318) and 2nd in strikeout rate (15.6%) against right-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating:42.1


Mike Foltynewicz (FD: $7000, DK: $6400)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.88 — K Rate: 20.8% — K/9: 8.47 — BB Rate: 13.0% — FB Rate: 50.0% — HR/FB: 8.3%
2014: SIERA: 4.38 — K Rate: 16.7% — K/9: 6.75 — BB Rate: 8.3% — FB Rate: 50.8% — HR/FB: 9.4%

Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.92 (Rank: 5)

Analysis: It took a while to memorize the spelling of Giannis Antetokounmpo during the NBA season and I’m having the same issue with Mike Foltynewicz. Currently, the copy and paste method is winning out. Foltynewicz has a decent strikeout rate (20.8%), but he has a 4.88 SIERA and a 13% walk rate on the season. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher (50%) with a mediocre matchup against the Rays. He’s not on my radar tonight in cash games or tournaments.

Pitcher Rating:51.2

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

James Loney (FD: $2500, DK: $3600)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 106
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.103 — wRC+: 122

Analysis: If you want to differentiate your lineups and punt the first base position, Loney is a terrific option. He is extremely cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a favorable matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, who has given up a .463 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season. Loney is a low-risk, medium-reward fantasy option tonight, as he should be hitting in the heart of the Rays’ lineup.

Secondary Plays:

Kevin Kiermaier (FD: $2700, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 110
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.218 — wRC+: 139


Atlanta

Freddie Freeman (FD: $3400, DK: $4700)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 147
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.188 — wRC+: 150

Analysis: Freeman is the ultimate cash game play at first base. He doesn’t have a ton of those monster fantasy outings, but he has a lot of productive outings. In other words, he is a reliable source of fantasy production. He has a .391 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and he draws a favorable matchup against Erasmo Ramirez, who has given up a .335 wOBA to left-handed hitters since the start of 2014.

Secondary Plays:

Andrelton Simmons (FD: $2700, DK: $3700)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: 0.177 — wRC+: 109
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.267 — ISO: 0.077 — wRC+: 67


Arizona at Miami – 7:10 PM EST

Arizona Miami
arizonamlb Jeremy Hellickson miamimlb Tom Koehler
RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA (-125) 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.271 0.755 0.329 0.183 SP vs. Left 0.243 0.689 0.308 0.197
SP vs. Right 0.301 0.873 0.381 0.175 SP vs. Right 0.245 0.709 0.316 0.182
Batter Splits ARI BvP Batter Splits MIA BvP MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson (FD: $5700, DK: $5200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.61 — K Rate: 15.8% — K/9: 6.63 — BB Rate: 8.5% — FB Rate: 33.8% — HR/FB: 11.4%
2014: SIERA: 4.04 — K Rate: 19.2% — K/9: 7.63 — BB Rate: 7.5% — FB Rate: 40.9% — HR/FB: 9.6%

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.78 (Rank: 18)

Analysis: Hellickson is not a pitcher that is on my radar tonight. He has struggled this season, posting a 4.61 SIERA and a K/9 of 6.6. His strikeout to walk ratio is less than 2:1 and he comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog. Hellickson has shown decent strikeout potential in the past, but until he can string together a few quality outings in a row, he can safely be avoided in all league formats.

Pitcher Rating:40.5


Tom Koehler (FD: $6500, DK: $5900)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.37 — K Rate: 18.6% — K/9: 6.86 — BB Rate: 8.7% — FB Rate: 41.1% — HR/FB: 13.7%
2014: SIERA: 4.16 — K Rate: 19.1% — K/9: 7.20 — BB Rate: 8.8% — FB Rate: 39.0% — HR/FB: 7.4%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 12)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.69 (Rank: 27)

Analysis: Koehler will draw the start tonight, as the Marlins host the Diamondbacks. Koehler has been a serviceable starter for Miami this season, posting a 4.37 SIERA and a K/9 of 6.9. Koehler is a decent value play tonight against the Diamondbacks, who are right around the major league average in wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Koehler may not strike a bunch of batters out tonight, but he has a good chance to pitch deep into this game, as the Diamondbacks average the 4th-fewest pitches per plate appearance.

Pitcher Rating:57.1

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

David Peralta (FD: $3200, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.263 — wRC+: 136
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 132


Miami

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4600, DK: $5200)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.372 — ISO: 0.297 — wRC+: 133
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.262 — wRC+: 150

Analysis: Jeremy Hellickson is a reverse-splits pitcher. Since the start of 2014, he has given up a .381 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Stanton is typically a better target against left-handed pitching, but he is no slouch against right-handed pitching either. On the season, he has a .372 wOBA and a .297 ISO against righties.

Secondary Plays:

Dee Gordon (FD: $3800, DK: $4800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.427 — ISO: 0.107 — wRC+: 169
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.090 — wRC+: 99

Martin Prado (FD: $2300, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.265 — ISO: 0.058 — wRC+: 62
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.108 — wRC+: 84


Texas at Boston – 7:10 PM EST

Texas Boston
texasmlb Yovani Gallardo bostonmlb Wade Miley
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS (-131) 9
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.238 0.671 0.299 0.172 SP vs. Left 0.26 0 0.322 0.189
SP vs. Right 0.269 0.714 0.317 0.179 SP vs. Right 0.265 0.759 0.334 0.204
Batter Splits TEX BvP TEX vs L Batter Splits BOS BvP BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo (FD: $7100, DK: $6100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.25 — K Rate: 16.4% — K/9: 6.31 — BB Rate: 7.7% — FB Rate: 31.3% — HR/FB: 10.9%
2014: SIERA: 3.78 — K Rate: 17.9% — K/9: 6.83 — BB Rate: 6.6% — FB Rate: 29.0% — HR/FB: 12.1%

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 4)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.99 (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Gallardo can be targeted at different times throughout the season, but tonight is not one of those times. He draws a tough matchup against the Red Sox and he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park. Boston strikes out at the 4th-lowest rate against right-handed pitching and they are ranked 2nd in pitches per plate appearance. That’s not a great combination for Gallardo, who is an underdog in a game that features a high total of 9.0 runs.

Pitcher Rating:44.4


Wade Miley (FD: $6700, DK: $6300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 5.10 — K Rate: 14.2% — K/9: 5.6 — BB Rate: 10.3% — FB Rate: 38.8% — HR/FB: 6.7%
2014: SIERA: 3.67 — K Rate: 21.1% — K/9: 8.18 — BB Rate: 8.7% — FB Rate: 28.0% — HR/FB: 13.9%

Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.341 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 18)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.83 (Rank: 12)

Analysis: You are going to think I’m crazy, but I actually like Miley as a tournament play tonight against the Rangers. I know, I know, but hear me out. Miley’s numbers on the season look awful, but he’s coming off of his best start of the year, pitching 6.2 scoreless innings against the A’s in Oakland. The low strikeout rate is a concern, but his velocity hasn’t changed and he has averaged close to seven strikeouts per nine innings over the last three seasons.

Pitcher Rating:59.9

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Adrian Beltre (FD: $3200, DK: $4500)

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.295 — wRC+: 152
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.191 — wRC+: 170

Analysis: Even though I like Wade Miley as a tournament play tonight, that doesn’t mean that I’m going to avoid taking hitters against him. Beltre is a terrific option at third base tonight. He has a .397 wOBA and a .295 ISO against southpaws this season. Meanwhile, Miley has given up a .334 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Secondary Plays:

Kyle Blanks (FD: $2700, DK: $3600)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 1B/OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.581 — ISO: 0.625 — wRC+: 279
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 155


Boston

David Ortiz (FD: $2900, DK: $4100)

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.214 — wRC+: 147
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.248 — wRC+: 131

Analysis: Ortiz is under $3,000 on FanDuel. I repeat: Ortiz is under $3,000 on FanDuel. It’s hard to pass that type of value up, especially in cash games. Ortiz has a .388 wOBA and a .214 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. He draws a nice matchup against Yovani Gallardo at home and the Red Sox have one of the highest team totals on the board.

Secondary Plays:

Mookie Betts (FD: $3000, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.171 — wRC+: 98
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.153 — wRC+: 127

Dustin Pedroia (FD: $2700, DK: $4000)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.347 — ISO: 0.118 — wRC+: 119
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.078 — wRC+: 98


St. Louis at NY Mets – 7:10 PM EST

St. Louis NY Mets
stlouismlb Michael Wacha nymetsmlb Jonathon Niese
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL (-120) 7
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.22 0.607 0.276 0.183 SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right 0.236 0.652 0.29 0.199 SP vs. Right
Batter Splits STL vs L Batter Splits NYM BvP NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha (FD: $8400, DK: $8300)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.20 — K Rate: 14.3% — K/9: 5.36 — BB Rate: 5.5% — FB Rate: 28.7% — HR/FB: 7.7%
2014: SIERA: 3.74 — K Rate: 21.0% — K/9: 7.91 — BB Rate: 7.4% — FB Rate: 36.3% — HR/FB: 5.5%

New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 13)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.82 (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Wacha had a season-high seven strikeouts in his last start. It’s promising to see, as his strikeouts have been down considerably from where they were in 2014. Wacha’s 4.20 SIERA and K/9 of 5.4 are not enticing at all, but he could finally be rounding into form. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Mets, who are ranked 28th in wOBA (.285). He also gets to face them in Citi Field, which is one of the best pitcher’s parks in all of baseball.

Pitcher Rating:69.9


Jon Niese (FD: $7900, DK: $7500)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.97 — K Rate: 13.8% — K/9: 5.61 — BB Rate: 6.1% — FB Rate: 20.4% — HR/FB: 13.3%
2014: SIERA: 3.78 — K Rate: 17.6% — K/9: 6.62 — BB Rate: 5.7% — FB Rate: 29.8% — HR/FB: 9.8%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.69 (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Niese is a serviceable starter, both in real life and in daily fantasy baseball. He owns a 3.97 SIERA this season with a K/9 of 5.6. He has always pitched well at home in Citi Field and he’s facing a Cardinals’ offense that 1. doesn’t hit left-handed pitching well (19th in wOBA) and 2. doesn’t take a lot of pitches (3rd-fewest pitches per plate appearance). Niese is a little more expensive than I’d like to pay, but he deserves consideration as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Pitcher Rating:62.3

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Matt Holliday (FD: $3500, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.407 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 158
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.263 — wRC+: 183

Jhonny Peralta (FD: $3200, DK: $3900)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.303 — wRC+: 114
2014 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 148


NY Mets

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Curtis Granderson (FD: $3200, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.165 — wRC+: 136
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 — ISO: 0.159 — wRC+: 105

Lucas Duda (FD: $3100, DK: $3400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.158 — wRC+: 118
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.270 — wRC+: 158


Oakland at Houston – 8:10 PM EST

Oakland Houston
oaklandmlb Sonny Gray houstonmlb Roberto Hernandez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK (-131) 8
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.21 0.606 0.276 0.212 SP vs. Left 0.244 0.73 0.325 0.085
SP vs. Right 0.233 0.586 0.265 0.212 SP vs. Right 0.244 0.754 0.328 0.187
Batter Splits OAK BvP OAK vs R Batter Splits HOU BvP HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Sonny Gray (FD: $10500, DK: $10100)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 3.37 — K Rate: 24.5% — K/9: 8.52 — BB Rate: 6.9% — FB Rate: 36.1% — HR/FB: 1.9%
2014: SIERA: 3.56 — K Rate: 20.4% — K/9: 7.52 — BB Rate: 8.2% — FB Rate: 25.6% — HR/FB: 9.4%

Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 25.3% (Rank: 29)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.81 (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Gray is becoming an elite pitcher, but I’m not sure that he deserves consideration at a price above $10,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He has a 3.37 SIERA this season with a K/9 of 8.5, but he’s priced in the same range as guys like Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, and Matt Harvey. I’m not sure that he has reached that point just yet, as his strikeout rate doesn’t rival that of the elite aces in baseball. He draws a decent matchup against the Astros tonight, but he’s a bit too expensive for my liking.

Pitcher Rating: 78.2


Roberto Hernandez (FD: $5800, DK: $4500)

Pitching Stats:
2015: SIERA: 4.58 — K Rate: 11.3% — K/9: 4.12 — BB Rate: 6.8% — FB Rate: 28.0% — HR/FB: 15.0%
2014: SIERA: 4.67 — K Rate: 14.5% — K/9: 5.74 — BB Rate: 10.1% — FB Rate: 29.9% — HR/FB: 12.2%

Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 16.7% (Rank: 3)
Pitches per Plate Appearance: 3.85 (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Hernandez is an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. He has a 4.58 SIERA and a very low K/9 of 4.1 this season. He draws a tough matchup against the A’s, who are ranked in the top ten in wOBA, strikeout rate, and pitches per plate appearance this season. He also has to face them in the hitter-friendly Minute Maid Park.

Pitcher Rating:29.1

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Josh Reddick (FD: $3800, DK: $4700)

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.470 — ISO: 0.283 — wRC+: 210
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.239 — wRC+: 140

Analysis: The A’s offense were a bit of a letdown last night against the rookie, but they have a great opportunity to bounce back tonight against Roberto Hernandez. The pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona gives up a high wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate. Reddick has been terrific against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .470 wOBA and a .283 ISO. He also sees a ballpark boost playing in the home run-friendly Minute Maid Park.

Secondary Plays:

Marcus Semien (FD: $3400, DK: $4300)
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: 3B/SS
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 137
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.288 — ISO: 0.130 — wRC+: 79

Stephen Vogt (FD: $3800, DK: $4100)
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.467 — ISO: 0.341 — wRC+: 208
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.337 — ISO: 0.148 — wRC+: 119


Houston

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Jose Altuve (FD: $4400, DK: $4400)
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.161 — wRC+: 109
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.100 — wRC+: 119

Luis Valbuena (FD: $3100, DK: $3800)
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 2B/3B
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.283 — wRC+: 128
2014 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.355 — ISO: 0.208 — wRC+: 124


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious