MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, October 14th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review.
Baltimore at Kansas City
| Baltimore | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Wei-Yin Chen | Vegas Moneyline | Jeremy Guthrie | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | BAL (-110) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.671 | 0.298 | 16.90% | SP vs. Left | 0.296 | 0.828 | 0.364 | 14.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.746 | 0.326 | 17.80% | SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.601 | 0.270 | 13.80% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP  | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Wei-Yin Chen – Chen will take the mound for the Orioles in hopes to slow down this red-hot Royals ballclub. The Royals have not lost a single game in the postseason and the Orioles do not want to fall behind 0-3. On the season, Chen posted a 3.54 ERA (3.75 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.6. He is a better pitcher than most give him credit for, especially considering the fact that he pitches in the tough American League East. While the matchup isn’t great, Chen should have run support on his side, and the Orioles are in as close to a must-win situation as you are going to find. Chen is the slightly preferred option over Guthrie in this game. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7800 FD, $18100 DD, $7800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jeremy Guthrie – You can very easily make a strong case for Guthrie. In the last four starts against the Orioles, he has posted a 3.41 ERA. Guthrie is also pitching at home in Kauffman Stadium, which is a very tough ballpark to hit home runs in. That bodes well for his matchup against the Royals, who rely on the long ball for a lot of their run production. Now, with that said, he’s not a recommended fantasy option tonight. The Orioles have the best offense left in baseball and are in a must-win situation. Couple that with Guthrie’s low strikeout rate (5.5 K’s per 9 innings), and he’s an easy avoid in Game 3. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $15750 DD, $6500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Nick Markakis – I’ll let you in on a little secret: Jeremy Guthrie does not fare well against batters that hit from the left side of the plate. This season he gave up a .364 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Target all of the lefties in this Orioles lineup. Markakis has really hit the ball well this postseason and had another solid season against right-handed pitching with a .332 wOBA.
Ryan Flaherty – Flaherty has been a nice surprise for the Orioles in the postseason. He has come up with five big hits and three RBI so far in the playoffs. He’s been batting 7th, which is actually a nice spot to hit in because he will still see some RBI opportunities. He’s close to minimum salary and has a great matchup against Guthrie, who has given up a .364 wOBA to hitters from the left side of the plate.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Alejandro De Aza, Adam Jones
Kansas City
Lorenzo Cain – Cain has been terrific of late. In his last 10 games (including the postseason), he has 16 hits, 11 runs, and 7 RBI. On the season, he mashed left-handed pitching with a .313 batting average and a .362 wOBA. Cain has the rare combination of speed and power and is one of my favorite outfielders in this two-game slate.
Alcides Escobar – Escobar has really played well ever since taking over the leadoff role. He draws a favorable matchup against Wei-Yin Chen, who has given up a .326 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Escobar has hit left-handed pitching well this season with a .342 wOBA. We all know that the Royals like to play small ball and Escobar should be aggressive on the base paths after stealing 31 bases during the regular season.
Additional Plays: Billy Butler, Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon, Omar Infante
St. Louis at San Francisco
| St. Louis | San Francisco | ||||||||
| John Lackey | Vegas Moneyline | Tim Hudson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-123) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.720 | 0.316 | 18.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 0.755 | 0.331 | 12.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.744 | 0.327 | 20.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.256 | 0.667 | 0.292 | 18.50% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- John Lackey – Lackey takes the mound for the Cardinals after they somehow managed to even up the series at a game a piece. Lackey comes into this start in great form, as he has only given up a combined four earned runs over his last three starts while striking out 21 batters. Lackey has a respectable K/9 of 7.5 on the season and he already has a great postseason start under his belt. Thanks to his strikeout potential, he’s the top pitcher in this two-game slate, even though he is on the road. Rating = 7
Salaries: $7900 FD, $19000 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Tim Hudson – Hudson really faltered down the stretch of the regular season. He posted an ugly ERA of 8.72 in the month of September while allowing opponents to hit for a .408 wOBA against him. While that’s definitely concerning, the good news is that he pitched well in his first postseason start of the year. He only gave up a single earned run to the Nationals on the road. Hudson doesn’t have the best strikeout rate, but he’s pitched well at home all season long and he has a ton of experience. I have him ranked right behind Lackey and don’t mind using both of these pitchers on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $6400 FD, $19750 DD, $6600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Matt Adams – How many big hits can Matt Adams and Matt Carpenter come up with? They seem to be playing a different game than everyone else. Adams hit a big home run in Game 2 which helped tie the series up 1-1. He’s been terrific against right-handed pitching all season long and gets to face Tim Hudson, who really struggled down the stretch of the regular season.
Matt Carpenter – Carpenter’s postseason power has come out of nowhere. After hitting only eight home runs during the entire regular season, Carpenter has already hit four homers in the postseason. Continue targeting Carpenter’s hot bat against Tim Hudson, who gave up a .332 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate this season.
Additional Plays: Kolten Wong, Matt Holliday
San Francisco
Buster Posey – Posey has been consistently solid so far in the postseason. He’s batting .313 with a .371 OBP. He’s the top choice at catcher basically every night, as the other options at the position just don’t match up to Posey. He draws a favorable matchup against John Lackey, who has given up a .327 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate.
Pablo Sandoval – Pablo continues to come up with big hits in the postseason. In his career, Pablo is batting .322 with a .919 OPS in the postseason. That’s extremely impressive when you consider the fact that you only face elite pitchers in the postseason. If you don’t want to pay up for Carpenter at third base, Sandoval is a solid alternative against Lackey.
Additional Plays: Joe Panik, Hunter Pence