MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, October 7th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
LA Dodgers at St. Louis
| LA Dodgers | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Clayton Kershaw | Vegas Moneyline | Shelby Miller | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | LAD (-145) | RIGHT | 6.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.190 | 0.477 | 0.215 | 31.50% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.709 | 0.314 | 16.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.195 | 0.531 | 0.237 | 32.00% | SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.689 | 0.307 | 17.20% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP  | LAD vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw will take the mound tonight on short rest in a win-or-go home game for the Dodgers. Kershaw was in a similar situation last season against the Braves and ended up striking out six batters over six innings of work without giving up a single earned run. The short rest is not what concerns me – it’s the fact the Cardinals have had his number in the postseason. In three starts against the Cardinals in October, Kershaw has given up 15 earned runs. That said, he’s still the best pitcher in baseball with the most upside of any pitcher. Do what you can to get him in your lineups, but he’s by no means a “MUST” play at his price. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $12800 FD, $23100 DD, $14800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $21950 FTD
- Shelby Miller – With Michael Wacha struggling down the stretch of the season, the Cardinals will give the ball to Shelby Miller, who has had an erratic season. Miller is sporting a 3.74 ERA with a K/9 of 6.3. The biggest red flag with Miller is the fact that he has given up 3.6 walks per 9 innings. He’s typically a solid pitcher when he is throwing strikes, but that’s certainly not something that can be counted on, especially against a very talented Dodgers lineup. The upside potential is limited and the matchup is less than appealing. Use him as a tournament play only. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6600 FD, $12950 DD, $7700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $11150 FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez may be the top play at any position tonight. He has a great matchup against Shelby Miller, who has historically struggled against left-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Gonzalez has mashed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .303 batting average and a .384 wOBA this season.
Dee Gordon – Gordon has been fairly quiet in this series, as he is only 2/13, both of which were singles. That said, he has a favorable matchup against Shelby Miller, and his stolen base potential goes up with a right-handed pitcher on the mound.
Additional Plays: Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford
St. Louis
Matt Carpenter – Where was all of this power during the regular season? Carpenter homered again last night, which was his third home run of the postseason. On paper, this is a terrible lefty/lefty matchup, but Carpenter is locked in and had a big game against Kershaw in Game 1 of the series. He will be a contrarian play, but third base is an awfully thin position.
Yadier Molina – Molina has hit Kershaw pretty well in the past. During regular season play, he is 6/22 against him with three doubles. Molina has always hit left-handed pitching well and this season is no different, as he has a .278 batting average and a .348 wOBA.
Additional Plays: Matt Holliday, Jhonny Peralta
Washington at San Francisco
| Washington | San Francisco | ||||||||
| Gio Gonzalez | Vegas Moneyline | Ryan Vogelsong | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | WAS (-122) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.628 | 0.284 | 27.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.282 | 0.787 | 0.346 | 20.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.653 | 0.293 | 24.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.219 | 0.675 | 0.301 | 18.40% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Gio Gonzalez – Do the Nationals have some momentum or does momentum in MLB go as far as your next starting pitcher? Either way, they have to like their chances of forcing a Game 5 with Gonzalez on the mound. On the season, he has posted a 3.57 ERA with a K/9 of 9.2. He does walk quite a few batters, but the strikeouts more than make up for that. Gonzalez is facing a Giants offense that was right around the league average in wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Gonzalez is a small favorite here and is the second best option on the mound next to Mr. Kershaw. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $9100 FD, $17050 DD, $9000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $15050 FTD
- Ryan Vogelsong – Vogelsong is an interesting play tonight. While the matchup against the Nationals isn’t ideal, he has pitched well at home this season with a 3.07 ERA, while holding opponents to a .224 batting average this season. Vogelsong has a decent strikeout rate (7.4 batters per 9 innings) and is the cheapest pitcher on the board. I’m not a big fan of him on single-pitcher sites, but I do think he makes a solid #2 starter to pair with Kershaw on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6400 FD, $12650 DD, $7000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $12700 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Adam LaRoche – Vogelsong has really struggled against batters from the left side of the plate this season. He has given up a .346 wOBA to left-handed hitters. While LaRoche is only 1/14 in this series, he has a .382 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and a terrific matchup against Vogelsong.
Bryce Harper – Harper finished the season strong with a .364 wOBA during the second half. He’s already hit two home runs in this series and draws a terrific matchup against Ryan Vogelsong, who has given up a .346 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate.
Additional Plays: Denard Span, Wilson Ramos, Asdrubal Cabrera
San Francisco
Buster Posey – Posey is one of the few players that you can target regardless of the matchup, especially when he’s facing a lefty. On the season, Posey is batting .304 with a .382 wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Giants do not want to head back to Washington for Game 5, and their best hitter needs some big hits if that’s going to happen.
Pablo Sandoval – Sandoval hasn’t hit left-handed pitching well this season, but he’s hit lefties well throughout his career, and he’s riding a 14-game playoff hitting streak and has come up big for the Giants time and time again. He has a .300+ career batting average in the postseason and is priced to sell.
Additional Plays: Hunter Pence, Brandon Crawford