MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 16th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Boston at Pittsburgh
| Boston | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Anthony Ranaudo | Vegas Moneyline | Charlie Morton | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-165) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.295 | 0.927 | 0.402 | 7.30% | SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.662 | 0.302 | 19.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.864 | 0.363 | 10.20% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.700 | 0.315 | 17.70% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP  | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Anthony Ranaudo – Ranaudo has given up at least 3 earned runs in each of his last 4 starts. On the season he owns a 5.40 ERA (5.97 xFIP) with a K/9 of only 3.38 which is one of the lowest of any starting pitcher in baseball. He is walking over 4 batters per 9 innings and draws a tough matchup against the Pirates who are ranked 2nd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5500 FD, $8750 DD, $5700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Charlie Morton – Morton will be making his first start in over a month as he is dealing with a sports hernia that is going to require surgery at the end of the season. Clint Hurdle says that they will use Morton up to around 5 innings or 85 pitches. That severely caps his upside as he would need close to a perfect outing to be even a decent fantasy play. Even though he is a large favorite tonight against the Red Sox, he may not even pitch long enough to be in line for the win. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6600 FD, $12000 DD, $6000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Even though Charlie Morton could have a little rust in his first start back, there aren’t any Red Sox hitters that stand out tonight. They are big underdogs in a game that features a low run total.
Pittsburgh
Neil Walker – The sample size is still small, but Ranaudo has given up a .404 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Most of Walker’s power comes from the left side of the plate (.361 wOBA). He should have ample opportunities to drive in runs.
Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen, Russel Martin
Toronto at Baltimore
| Toronto | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Drew Hutchison | Vegas Moneyline | Ubaldo Jimenez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-110) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.791 | 0.345 | 20.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.798 | 0.361 | 18.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.626 | 0.278 | 24.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.713 | 0.319 | 23.60% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Drew Hutchison – Hutchison is coming off of a terrific outing against the Cubs. He struck out 10 batters over 6 innings of work while only giving up a single earned run. Hutchison owns an elite strikeout rate of 8.4, but he does draw an extremely tough matchup against the Orioles who are ranked 6th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. He makes a nice tournament play though as he has great strikeout potential at an affordable price point. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $13050 DD, $7500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Ubaldo Jimenez – Ubaldo has not had a great season. He owns a 4.96 ERA with a K/9 of 8.1. He was moved to the bullpen, but really struggled in that role as well. He will make a spot start tonight against a very tough Blue Jays offense that is ranked #1 in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Ubaldo is much more risk than potential reward tonight. He can be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6000 FD, $10500 DD, $6100 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Reyes – Reyes draws a favorable matchup tonight against Jimenez who has given up a .361 wOBA to LH hitters this season. In addition to the fact that Reyes has hit RH pitching well, he has also stolen 20 of his 26 SB’s against RH pitching.
Additional Plays: Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion
Baltimore
Nelson Cruz – Hutchison has given up a much higher wOBA to LH hitters this season, but Cruz still looks like the best play here. He has been red hot over his last 10 games with 15 hits and 10 RBI’s.
Additional Plays: Nick Markakis
Washington at Atlanta
| Washington | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Tanner Roark | Vegas Moneyline | Aaron Harang | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-130) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.683 | 0.304 | 13.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.296 | 0.775 | 0.342 | 16.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.596 | 0.265 | 22.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.691 | 0.306 | 18.90% |
| Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tanner Roark – Roark has been a very solid pitcher this season, but he doesn’t own that elite strikeout rate that we like to see in daily fantasy baseball. In fact, Roark has only struck out more than 6 batters twice in his last 10 starts. Roark is sporting a 2.96 ERA (3.83 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.5. He’s a sizable favorite tonight against the Braves who have fallen apart over their last 10 games. While Roark’s upside is somewhat limited, he draws a nice matchup and is in play as a #2 starter on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7400 FD, $15900 DD, $8500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Aaron Harang – Harang has pitched better than given credit for. He owns a 3.72 ERA (4.09 xFIP) on the season with a K/9 of 6.9. While those numbers are certainly respectable, he draws a very tough matchup against the Nationals who have a tough lineup 1-8. On a night with a full slate of games, Harang can be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6600 FD, $13700 DD, $6300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Adam LaRoche – LaRoche hasn’t hit for a high average this season (.261), but he has certainly hit for power. LaRoche has 24 HR’s on the season, 19 of which have come against RH pitching. He is in a great spot tonight against Harang who has given up a .342 wOBA to LH hitters.
Additional Plays: Denard Span, Anthony Rendon
Atlanta
Avoid all Braves tonight against Tanner Roark. The Braves bats are ice cold and Roark has managed to keep both LH and RH hitters under a .305 wOBA this season.
Miami at NY Mets
| Miami | NY Mets | ||||||||
| Nathan Eovaldi | Vegas Moneyline | Bartolo Colon | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYM (-142) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.293 | 0.777 | 0.339 | 15.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.680 | 0.299 | 17.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.672 | 0.297 | 18.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.736 | 0.322 | 18.60% |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi has terrific velocity, but he has yet to turn that into an elite strikeout rate. He is averaging 6.4 strikeouts per 9 innings this season to go along with his 4.29 ERA. The good news for Eovaldi is that he is facing a weak Mets offense in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. The Mets are ranked 23rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season while striking out at a 20% clip. At his price point, he is a nice GPP play and could even be in the mix as a #2 starter on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6
Salaries: $5800 FD, $12250 DD, $6400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Bartolo Colon – Since the start of August, Colon has an ERA over 5.00 while giving up close to a .350 wOBA to his opponents. His current form isn’t promising, but it’s hard not to love the matchup against the Marlins. Miami is ranked 22nd in wOBA on the road this season and have struck out at a 25% clip away from home. They are missing their best hitter in Giancarlo Stanton and we saw Jacob deGrom carve this lineup up for 13 strikeouts. Colon is a decent play tonight, but is priced a bit higher than I was hoping. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7500 FD, $15400 DD, $8200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Christian Yelich – Yelich can do it all offensively. He has good speed, good power, and he hits for average. He draws a nice matchup tonight against Colon who primarily throws fastballs at this point in his career. Yelich is the only Marlins bat that I will have exposure to tonight.
Additional Plays: None
NY Mets
As a team, the Mets are ranked 30th in wOBA at home. With an average matchup against Eovaldi, you can safely avoid the Mets hitters tonight.
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
| NY Yankees | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Michael Pineda | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Odorizzi | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-118) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.220 | 0.608 | 0.264 | 19.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.229 | 0.670 | 0.296 | 29.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.598 | 0.262 | 13.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.702 | 0.314 | 20.00% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Michael Pineda – Pineda has pitched well this season with a 2.20 ERA, but his 3.79 xFIP suggests some regression. His BABIP is at .247 which isn’t going to last over the course of a couple of seasons. Not only that, but Pineda hasn’t struck out many batters this season. He is only averaging 5.6 strikeouts per 9 innings. He gave up 10 hits and 4 earned runs to the Rays in their last meeting and he offers very little fantasy appeal tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5800 FD, $15600 DD, $8500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi owns an elite strikeout rate at a mid-range price point. He is averaging 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings while generating an impressive 9.8% swinging strike rate on his opponents. Odorizzi has had his struggles on the road this season, but he has been terrific at home with a 2.69 ERA while holding opponents to a .193 batting average. Tonight he faces the Yankees who are ranked 19th in wOBA against RH pitching. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7600 FD, $14450 DD, $8800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Brian McCann – McCann got the night off last night, but should be back in the lineup tonight against the Rays. McCann has 3 HR’s over his last 10 games and he also has 2 HR’s off of Odorizzi in his career. He makes a solid tournament play tonight.
Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury
Tampa Bay
Yunel Escobar – Escobar has had Pineda’s number in the past. He’s gone 6/12 with 2 HR’s off of him. Escobar has also been swinging a hot bat with 13 hits (3 HR’s) and 7 RBI’s over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist, Evan Longoria
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