MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 16th Page Two
Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs
| Cincinnati | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Johnny Cueto | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Arrieta | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CIN (-115) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.192 | 0.551 | 0.254 | 23.60% | SP vs. Left | 0.210 | 0.592 | 0.266 | 28.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.191 | 0.587 | 0.261 | 26.50% | SP vs. Right | 0.216 | 0.549 | 0.247 | 23.20% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP  | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Johnny Cueto – Cueto takes the mound tonight in Chicago and the important thing to look at here is the direction of the wind. Luckily for Cueto, the wind is blowing out to left at a measly 4 MPH so that shouldn’t impact his fantasy value. Cueto owns a 2.15 ERA with an impressive K/9 of 8.9. He draws a terrific matchup against the Cubs who are ranked 27th in wOBA vs. RH pitching while striking out at a 23% rate. Expect another terrific outing from one of the best pitchers in baseball. Rating = 9
Salaries: $10600 FD, $19400 DD, $11800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jake Arrieta – Arrieta has thrown in a couple of terrible outings, but has held opponents to 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. He seems to get overlooked every night that he takes the mound despite a 2.82 ERA and an impressive K/9 of 9.2. Arrieta has kept his walks down (2.5 per 9 innings) and is only giving an average of 1 HR per 27 innings. He’ll likely see little to no run support, but his upside puts him in a great spot in tournaments. The Reds offense is ranked 26th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $8200 FD, $14250 DD, $9200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
This game should be a pitcher’s duel. Jake Arrieta has really pitched well this season and the Reds bats have been ice cold. Avoid both offenses in this game.
Chicago Cubs
Avoid all Cubs tonight against Johnny Cueto who has held both LH and RH hitters under a .265 wOBA this season.
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
| Chicago White Sox | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Chris Bassitt | Vegas Moneyline | Liam Hendriks | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | KCR (-131) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.719 | 0.316 | 16.10% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.751 | 0.331 | 13.30% | ||||
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Bassitt – The Bassitt Hound takes the mound tonight for his 3rd career start. He surprised a lot of people in his last start by holding the A’s to a single earned run while striking out 5 batters over 6 innings of work. That said, he’s not a top prospect by any means and he draws a tough matchup against the Royals who strike out fewer times than any team in baseball. I’m expecting the Royals to put some runs on the board tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5500 FD, $8750 DD, $5900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Liam Hendriks – Hendriks is not a great fantasy option. He has a high ERA (5.06) mixed with a low K/9 (5.7). He is giving up just over 1 HR per 9 innings and he has given up 3 or more runs in 3 of his last 4 starts. While he is the favorite here, he can safely be avoided in all leagues as he takes on a very capable White Sox offense. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5000 FD, $8400 DD, $6200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – This pick is fairly simple: Abreu has 26 HR’s off of RH pitching this season and Hendriks has given up a .331 wOBA to batters from the right side of the plate. It’s hard to find a player with as much power as Abreu that also hits for a .323 batting average.
Additional Plays: Adam Eaton
Kansas City
Alex Gordon – Bassit really struggled against LH hitters in the minors. If you look at his minor league splits this season, he gave up a .274 batting average to batters from the left side of the plate. I’m expecting the Royals to give Bassit some problems and they make for a very interesting stack.
Additional Plays: Eric Hosmer, Norichika Aoki
Cleveland at Houston
| Cleveland | Houston | ||||||||
| Corey Kluber | Vegas Moneyline | Nick Tropeano | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-175) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.248 | 0.706 | 0.312 | 26.80% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.214 | 0.547 | 0.244 | 26.80% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Corey Kluber – Kluber has established himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League. On the season he owns a 2.45 ERA and a K/9 of 9.7. Kluber had some troubles on the road last season, but he has basically pitched well everywhere this season. He draws a favorable matchup against a strikeout happy Astros offense that is only ranked 21st in wOBA vs. RH pitching. You are going to have to spend up to play him, but he should be worth every penny. Rating = 9
Salaries: $10500 FD, $20650 DD, $12300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Nick Tropeano – In his first career start, Tropeano gave up 2 earned runs over 5 innings of work while striking out 5 batters. He is one of the Astros top prospects and they are giving him a little taste of the major leagues down the stretch of the regular season. While his price is cheap, he’s a very risky option tonight against the Indians who are ranked 7th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. As usual, I’m going to take a wait and see approach with these young call-ups. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5000 FD, $9600 DD, $7200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – Give me a HR hitter against an inexperienced pitcher in a HR-friendly ballpark any day of the week. Santana has 11 hits (3 HR’s) and 9 RBI’s over his last 10 games and makes a terrific play at C/1B.
Additional Plays: Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley
Houston
Avoid all Astros against Corey Kluber who has been dominant this season.
Detroit at Minnesota
| Detroit | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Rick Porcello | Vegas Moneyline | Ricky Nolasco | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-145) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.686 | 0.302 | 13.40% | SP vs. Left | 0.333 | 0.929 | 0.404 | 12.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.675 | 0.297 | 17.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.299 | 0.838 | 0.363 | 19.50% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Rick Porcello – Porcello takes the mound for the Tigers tonight. While he has had a very nice 2014 campaign in terms of real world pitching, he’s been a mediocre fantasy option thanks to his less than impressive K/9 of 5.6. With a low strikeout rate, it makes it hard for pitchers to overcome bad outings. For that reason, Porcello is a pretty average fantasy option against the Twins who have the 7th highest wOBA over the last 30 days. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7800 FD, $14150 DD, $7400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Ricky Nolasco – Nolasco has had a season to forget. He is sporting a 5.64 ERA with a K/9 of 6.4. Granted, he has had some bad luck. His .335 BABIP is one of the highest in the majors. At this point in the season, I’m not sure that we can expect his luck to change anytime soon, especially considering his matchup against the Tigers who are ranked 4th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5100 FD, $8950 DD, $5900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera is expensive, but he is one of the top plays tonight at any position. Cabrera has been swinging a hot bat with 15 hits (4 HR’s) over his last 10 games. He should be able to take advantage of the favorable matchup against Nolasco who has given up a .363 wOBA to RH hitters.
Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos
Minnesota
Kennys Vargas – Vargas is a switch hitter, but he’s done most of his damage from the left side of the plate. On the season, he is batting .320 with a .378 wOBA against RH pitching. He draws a nice matchup against Porcello who has given up a career .348 wOBA to LH hitters.
Additional Plays: Joe Mauer
Milwaukee at St. Louis
| Milwaukee | St. Louis | ||||||||
| Wily Peralta | Vegas Moneyline | Lance Lynn | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-150) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.306 | 0.835 | 0.367 | 17.20% | SP vs. Left | 0.234 | 0.668 | 0.303 | 17.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.216 | 0.628 | 0.287 | 18.10% | SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.640 | 0.287 | 22.90% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Wily Peralta – Peralta has an electric fastball, but doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate. He has a K/9 of 6.8 to go along with his 3.75 ERA. While Peralta has produced an impressive 54% ground ball rate this season, he has still had a tough time keeping the ball in the park as he is giving up 1.17 HR’s per 9 innings. He draws a fairly tough matchup tonight against the Cardinals who have the 10th best wOBA over the last 30 days. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7300 FD, $13200 DD, $7600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Lance Lynn – Lynn has been terrific since the All-Star break and no one outside of St. Louis seems to be noticing. Since the break, Lynn has posted a 2.06 ERA with a K/9 of 7.8. He has also held his opponents to a .220 batting average during that stretch. While the Brewers do have a couple of LH hitters in their lineup, Lynn will still have the platoon advantage tonight. He has held RH hitters to a .287 wOBA which bodes well for his fantasy outlook tonight. Lynn won’t be a popular play, but he should provide another quality start. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8400 FD, $17250 DD, $9500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Gerardo Parra has had some success off of Lance Lynn in the past, but he’s been locked in since the All-Star Break. Avoid the Brewers offense and target Lynn as a contrarian play tonight.
St. Louis
Matt Carpenter – Carpenter has the best of both worlds tonight. He has a great matchup in terms of handedness (Peralta is giving up a .367 wOBA to LH hitters) and he has great BvP numbers (8/18 with 2 XBH’s off of Peralta). He’s a very nice cash game play tonight. The Cardinals’ Matt’s are all in play.
Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Matt Holliday