MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 23rd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Baltimore at NY Yankees
| Baltimore | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Vegas Moneyline | Brandon McCarthy | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-150) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.778 | 0.353 | 18.60% | SP vs. Left | 0.287 | 0.740 | 0.325 | 20.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.248 | 0.712 | 0.320 | 23.90% | SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.724 | 0.314 | 21.00% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP  | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Ubaldo Jimenez – Ubaldo takes the mound tonight for the Orioles. He pitched well in his last start against the Blue Jays. The issue with Jimenez has never been his stuff, it’s been his command. He is averaging 5.6 walks per 9 innings which is the most of any pitcher in the American League that qualifies. Command issues can kill a starter’s fantasy value which is exactly the reason why he should be avoided in cash games tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $ FD, $10900 DD, $6200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Brandon McCarthy – Since the All-Star Break, McCarthy has posted a 2.64 ERA while holding opponents to a .236 batting average. He has a respectable K/9 of 7.7 and is only averaging 1.5 walks 9 per innings. That said, the matchup against the Orioles isn’t great as the O’s are ranked 6th in wOBA against RH pitching this season. The Orioles are still alive for the top seed in the American League so they should be start all of their every day players. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Nelson Cruz – Cruz is a hot hitter (14 hits over his last 10 games) playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark (Yankee Stadium). The matchup against Brandon McCarthy isn’t ideal, but Cruz is a tough out regardless of who the pitcher on the mound is.
Additional Plays: Adam Jones
NY Yankees
Derek Jeter – Once again, this is Jeter’s last home stand. After a double that brought in an RBI last night, he now has 7 hits over his last 4 games. He always comes through in big spots and I’m expecting nothing short of another Jeter-like performance tonight against Jimenez who has given up a .320 wOBA to RH hitters.
Additional Plays: Brian McCann
NY Mets at Washington
| NY Mets | Washington | ||||||||
| Bartolo Colon | Vegas Moneyline | Tanner Roark | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-160) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.260 | 0.676 | 0.297 | 17.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.673 | 0.300 | 13.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.746 | 0.326 | 18.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.594 | 0.264 | 22.00% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Bartolo Colon – Colon has not pitched well on the road this season. He has a 4.35 ERA while giving up a .313 wOBA to his opponents. He has also struggled against the Nationals this season as he has given up 5 of his 21 HR’s to Nationals hitters. Colon is primarily a fastball pitcher at this stage in his career and the Nats have proven that they can hit him well. He can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4
Salaries: $ FD, $15550 DD, $8200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Tanner Roark – Roark doesn’t own an elite strikeout rate, but he is averaging a respectable 6.7 K’s per 9 innings. On the season he has a 2.85 ERA and he has kept his walks and HR’s down. Tonight he faces a Mets offense that is ranked 21st in wOBA vs. RH pitching. The Mets also strike out at a 20% clip against RH pitching. Roark should be able to pitch 7 strong innings with 5+ strikeouts and a possible win. For the price, he’s certainly in play as a #2 starter on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 6.5
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Avoid all Mets tonight against Tanner Roark who has held both LH and RH hitters under a .300 wOBA this season.
Washington
Adam LaRoche – LaRoche isn’t the most consistent fantasy option on the board, but makes a nice tournament play tonight at 1B. LaRoche has a .382 wOBA against right-hand pitching this season with 20 of his 25 home runs coming against righties. He also has a decent track record against Colon going 4/9 with 3 XBH’s.
Additional Plays: Ian Desmond, Denard Span
Kansas City at Cleveland
| Kansas City | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Yordano Ventura | Vegas Moneyline | Danny Salazar | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-118) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.646 | 0.289 | 19.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.307 | 27.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.691 | 0.311 | 21.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 0.770 | 0.336 | 23.60% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Yordano Ventura – Ventura continues his solid sophomore season tonight against the Indians. On the season, Ventura has posted a 3.19 ERA with a K/9 of 7.7. He does walk quite a few more batters then you’d like to see though (3.3 per 9 innings). He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Indians who are ranked 7th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Something tells me the Royals win this game tonight, but there are better options at Ventura’s price point. Rating = 5
Salaries: $ FD, $16400 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Danny Salazar – Since the All-Star Break, Salazar has posted a 3.06 ERA with a K/9 of 9.1. He has also held hitters to a .243 batting average during that stretch. This is not a great matchup for Salazar though. The Royals are patient at the plate and have struck out fewer times than any team in baseball. The Royals also still have something to play for while the Indians are counting down the days until they can go on vacation. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Salvador Perez – Salazar is a reverse splits pitcher that has given up a .336 wOBA to RH hitters this season. Much like Salazar, Perez also has reverse splits, only his are as a hitter. Perez is batting .272 with a .313 wOBA against RH pitching this season.
*Additional Plays:*Lorenzo Cain
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – Santana makes a nice tournament play tonight. He’s 5/12 with 2 HR’s off of Ventura in his career. The rest of the Indians are pretty mediocre fantasy plays tonight on a full slate.
Additional Plays: None
Seattle at Toronto
| Seattle | Toronto | ||||||||
| Felix Hernandez | Vegas Moneyline | R.A. Dickey | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SEA (-195) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.201 | 0.516 | 0.233 | 24.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.220 | 0.669 | 0.302 | 17.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.194 | 0.583 | 0.258 | 30.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.747 | 0.329 | 20.30% |
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Felix Hernandez – King Felix takes the mound tonight in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball. Felix is having another dominant season with a 2.07 ERA and a K/9 of 9.4. He is walking a career low 1.6 batters per 9 innings and he has only given up 0.6 HR’s per 9 innings as well. The Blue Jays are the best hitting team in baseball against RH pitching though. While I do expect the Mariners to walk away with a win here, King Felix is a bit over-priced for his tough matchup. Rating = 7
Salaries: $ FD, $21300 DD, $12500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- R.A. Dickey – Dickey has actually put together a pretty solid season when you factor in that half of his starts have been in the Rogers Centre. On the season he owns a 3.83 ERA with a K/9 of 7.3. He still has some command issues, but that’s the give and take with a knuckleball pitcher. Tonight Dickey faces a Mariners team that is still fighting to get into the playoffs. He’s a decent tournament play, but should be avoided in cash games. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Robinson Cano – Cano has not hit the knuckleball well in his career (4/20 with four strikeouts against Dickey), but he is still a solid tournament play thanks to the fact that this game is being played in the Rogers Centre. It also doesn’t hurt that Dickey has already given up 25 home runs on the season.
Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Dustin Ackley
Toronto
Avoid all Blue Jays tonight in cash games as Felix Hernandez has held both LH and RH hitters under a .260 wOBA this season. Jose Bautista is an interesting tournament play as he has been swinging a hot bat and does have 2 HR’s off of Hernandez in his career.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit
| Chicago White Sox | Detroit | ||||||||
| Scott Carroll | Vegas Moneyline | David Price | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | DET (-265) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.290 | 0.845 | 0.370 | 8.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.667 | 0.297 | 23.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.294 | 0.770 | 0.343 | 12.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.654 | 0.287 | 28.30% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs L | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Scott Carroll – Carroll is not a recommended fantasy option. He’s a below average pitcher (5.01 ERA, 4.1 K/9) facing an above average offense (4th in wOBA vs. RH pitching). The Tigers only have a one game lead over the Royals in their division and you can expect a nice bounce back effort from their offense tonight after getting shutout by Chris Bassitt last night. Rating = 2
Salaries: $ FD, $10550 DD, $5100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- David Price – Price is coming off of a subpar outing against the Twins in his last start. He has had a few bad outings over the last month, but still owns a 3.37 ERA (2.75 xFIP) with an elite strikeout rate of 9.9 batters per 9 innings. Price throws as many strikes as any pitcher in baseball as evidenced by his extremely low 1.4 walks per 9 innings. Price draws a favorable matchup tonight against the White Sox who strike out at a 22% clip against left-hand pitching this season. With the Tigers still fighting for the AL Central Division title, Price is in a prime spot to bounce back tonight. Rating = 9
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Avoid all White Sox tonight against David Price.
Detroit
Victor Martinez – Carroll has given up a .370 wOBA to left-hand hitters and a .343 wOBA to right-hand hitters. Martinez has been red hot with 12 hits over his last 10 games. He should have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs tonight which should help him pay off his expensive salary. Don’t be afraid to stack the Tigers tonight.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, Torii Hunter
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