MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 2nd
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Cincinnati at Baltimore
| Cincinnati | Baltimore | ||||||||
| Mat Latos | Vegas Moneyline | Bud Norris | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-135) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.211 | 0.571 | 0.253 | 17.30% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.725 | 0.321 | 16.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.664 | 0.296 | 18.80% | SP vs. Right | 0.245 | 0.715 | 0.318 | 20.50% |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP  | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mat Latos – We have a full slate of games on tap tonight so let’s jump right into the action. Latos takes the mound for the Reds tonight with a 3.15 ERA and a K/9 of 6.6. His strikeouts are down a bit this season as he is only generating a 7.8% swinging strike rate which is by far the lowest in his career. Latos has an xFIP of 3.97 which suggests that he isn’t pitching as well as his ERA looks. He draws a tough matchup against the Orioles and is a pretty average fantasy option tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8000 FD, $15350 DD, $9800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Bud Norris – Norris has pitched well this season with a 4.00 ERA and a K/9 of 7.0. He has really pitched well at Camden Yards with an ERA just over 3.00. Tonight he faces a Reds offense that is ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. The Reds are also one of the coldest offenses in baseball as they are ranked 26th in wOBA over the last 30 days. Norris should pitch well here, but for the price, there are better options. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7000 FD, $12050 DD, $7000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
Billy Hamilton – Hamilton already has 53 stolen bases this season, 43 of which have come against RH pitching. Hamilton will look to be aggressive on the base pads tonight against the righty Norris who has historically struggled against LH hitters.
Additional Plays: Jay Bruce
Baltimore
Nick Markakis – As mentioned above, Latos has been pitching over his head this season. He has had an incredibly low BABIP and it’s only a matter of time before balls hit off of him start finding some holes. Markakis has been terrific against RH pitching this season and makes a great cash game play thanks to his high floor.
Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones
Detroit at Cleveland
| Detroit | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Kyle Lobstein | Vegas Moneyline | Carlos Carrasco | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | CLE (-145) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.216 | 0.577 | 0.260 | 21.80% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.202 | 0.555 | 0.251 | 26.70% | ||||
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Lobstein – Lobstein will be making his 3rd career major league appearance. He has pitched admirably in his first two outings, but he’s not a top prospect and he posted very mediocre numbers at the Triple-A level this season. I expect the Indians to knock him around a bit tonight. He’s a sizable underdog in a game that features a high run total. He can safely be avoided in all league formats tonight. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6000 FD, $8750 DD, $5500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco has pitched well this season, but the majority of his work has been out of the bullpen. He does have 8 starts under his belt though and owns a 3.01 ERA on the season to go with his K/9 of 8.6. He is producing a career high 53% ground ball rate which has helped him keep the ball in the park as he has only given up 0.60 HR’s per 9 innings. The problem that I have with Carrasco is his matchup against the Tigers who are ranked 4th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6300 FD, $11450 DD, $8600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – It looks like the few days off really helped Miggy as he hit 2 HR’s in yesterday’s monster win over the Indians. Miggy is one of those players that is worth spending up for when he is locked in. I like the matchup against Carrasco and think he’s a bit under-priced on FD.
Additional Plays: Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – Santana has not hit for a high average this season, but he’s had great power, especially against LH pitching. He’s been swinging a hot bat over his last 10 games and looks to be in a great spot tonight against the rookie Lobstein.
Additional Plays: Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez
Boston at NY Yankees
| Boston | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Joe Kelly | Vegas Moneyline | Shane Greene | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-150) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.707 | 0.324 | 13.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.708 | 0.320 | 16.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.756 | 0.332 | 18.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.599 | 0.275 | 30.40% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Joe Kelly – Kelly is a pitcher that rarely is on my fantasy radar. He pitches in a tough division, he has an average ERA (4.14) and an average K-rate (6.1 per 9 innings). Those aren’t numbers that jump off of the page at you. Tonight he faces a Yankees offense that makes great contact. They only strike out 18% of the time against RH pitching which is one of the lowest in the American League. Target the Yankees side of this matchup and avoid Kelly tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5400 FD, $10650 DD, $6100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Shane Greene – Greene is having a terrific rookie season. He owns a 3.09 ERA with a K/9 of 8.8. He is producing a 54% ground ball rate and he is only giving up 0.81 HR’s per 9 innings. After a solid outing against a tough Tigers offense in Detroit, it may be time to start buying in on this youngster. He draws a pretty favorable matchup against the Red Sox who are right around the league average in wOBA vs. RH pitching. I think he picks up the win here and throws 6-7 quality innings. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7300 FD, $10750 DD, $8600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Boston
David Ortiz – You can never count out the LH power hitters with the short porch in right. Ortiz still has plenty of pop in his bat and he has been red hot going 15/32 with 4 XBH’s over his last 10 games. He’s the one Red Sox bat that you want to make sure to have some exposure to tonight if you are playing in GPP’s.
Additional Plays: Brock Holt
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellbsury – Ellsbury has been swinging a hot bat with 16 hits, 10 RBI’s, and 7 runs over his last 10 games. He also gives you the added bonus of a stolen base every few games and he also has the ability to homer with the short porch in right in Yankee Stadium. I love the matchup against Joe Kelly.
Additional Plays: Brian McCann, Mark Teixeira, Brett Gardner
Toronto at Tampa Bay
| Toronto | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| R.A. Dickey | Vegas Moneyline | Jeremy Hellickson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-120) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.715 | 0.321 | 18.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.198 | 0.537 | 0.243 | 21.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.756 | 0.331 | 20.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.313 | 0.848 | 0.374 | 17.80% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- R.A. Dickey – Dickey continues to pitch well for the Blue Jays, but he just doesn’t have the wow factor that he had when he was on the Mets. On the season he owns a respectable 4.00 ERA with a K/9 of 7.5. His biggest issue this season has been his walks, but that’s something that you just have to deal with as a knuckleball pitcher. He draws a pretty average matchup tonight and should only be targeted as a tournament play. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7500 FD, $14000 DD, $8200 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson is a tough pitcher to peg. After a few terrific outings, he’s looked very pedestrian in his last 3 starts as he has given up a combined 7 earned runs while striking out 15 batters. I like to see more consistency from my starting pitchers in daily fantasy baseball. For that reason, I will be avoiding him tonight against a very talented Blue Jays offense. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5500 FD, $11450 DD, $7200 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Bautista – Joey Bats is seeing the ball extremely well right now. He has homered in 4 straight games and is hitting the ball hard time and time again. He has a great track record against Hellickson as he is 8/26 with 3 HR’s against him.
Additional Plays: Adam Lind, Jose Reyes
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria – While Longo is only 6/25 off of Dickey in his career, he does have experience against him which is the important part. Longo has been playing much better over the last month or so and is a nice contrarian play at 3B as Dickey has given up HR per fly ball rate of 12% this season.
Additional Plays: Matt Joyce
NY Mets at Miami
| NY Mets | Miami | ||||||||
| Jonathon Niese | Vegas Moneyline | Brad Penny | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | NYM (-116) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | ||||||||
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jonathon Niese – Niese has very quietly pitched well this season for the Mets. He owns a 3.48 ERA with a K/9 of 6.4. He is producing a solid 49% ground ball rate and draws a favorable matchup against the strikeout happy Marlins tonight. I expect him to get some run support with Penny on the mound and think that he makes a great play on multi-pitcher sites as a #2 starter. He just needs to be careful with Giancarlo Stanton who can ruin a pitcher’s evening with one swing of his bat. Rating= 6
Salaries: $7000 FD, $12450 DD, $7100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Brad Penny – We don’t need to spend too much time on Penny. He has posted an ERA over 5.00 in each of his last 3 seasons. His ERA is highers than his K/9 this season which really hurts his fantasy appeal. I’ll be avoiding him tonight even in a favorable matchup against the Mets. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5500 FD, $8650 DD, $5300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
David Wright – Wright against a RH pitcher typically wouldn’t make the daily plays list, but he has crushed Penny in their previous matchups. Wright is 12/20 against Penny with 4 HR’s. At his price, he makes a terrific play at 3B.
Additional Plays: Lucas Duda
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton may be the best hitter in baseball against LH pitching. He has a wOBA over .450 against southpaws this season and he’s also been very good at home. He gets both tonight against the lefty Niese.
Additional Plays: Marcell Ozuna