MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 2nd Page Two
Philadelphia at Atlanta
| Philadelphia | Atlanta | ||||||||
| Kyle Kendrick | Vegas Moneyline | Mike Minor | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | ATL (-180) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.292 | 0.847 | 0.368 | 15.50% | SP vs. Left | 0.346 | 0.905 | 0.396 | 20.70% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.255 | 0.715 | 0.317 | 12.10% | SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.777 | 0.340 | 20.10% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP  | PHI vs L | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick has had a season to forget. In 27 starts this season, he has posted a 4.97 ERA with a K/9 of only 5.4. He has a career low 43% ground ball rate and he is giving up 1.2 HR’s per 9 innings. While the Braves aren’t great as a team against RH pitching, Kendrick is a below average fantasy option tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5500 FD, $10550 DD, $5800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Mike Minor – Minor has pitched much better than his 4.70 ERA suggests. He’s had some bad luck and some bad defense behind him which is evidenced by his xFIP which is a full run lower than his ERA. Minor has really pitched well in his last 3 starts as he has only given up a combined 4 earned runs while striking out 17 batters. He’s under-priced on both FD and DK and is actually my 2nd favorite pitcher on the board even though he’s something like the 10th most expensive. He should mow through this Phillies lineup. Rating = 8
Salaries: $7400 FD, $13600 DD, $7900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
As a team, the Phillies are below average against LH pitching this season. I’m expecting another strong start from Minor which means I will be avoiding all of the hitters here.
Atlanta
Freddie Freeman – Freeman is one of the top 1B plays on the board tonight. He draws a favorable matchup against Kendrick who has given up a .368 wOBA to LH hitters this season. Freeman has great power vs. righties and has also hit Kendrick well in the past.
Additional Plays: Justin Upton, Jason Heyward
Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
| Milwaukee | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Yovani Gallardo | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Arrieta | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CHC (-105) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.212 | 0.587 | 0.269 | 17.70% | SP vs. Left | 0.217 | 0.610 | 0.274 | 28.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.276 | 0.731 | 0.324 | 17.70% | SP vs. Right | 0.202 | 0.522 | 0.235 | 24.60% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo has quietly gone about his business this season. He owns a 3.26 ERA with a K/9 of 6.6. He is producing a very solid 53% ground ball rate and he has kept his walks and HR’s down this season. The good news for Gallardo is that there is not a strong wind blowing out at Wrigley tonight. Gallardo is certainly in play against the Cubs who are ranked 25th in wOBA vs. RH pitching while striking out at a 23% clip. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $7000 FD, $14950 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jake Arrieta – Arrieta is looking to bounce back after an extremely rough outing against the Reds. What may be the biggest concern was the fact that they stole 6 bases against him. He’s not the fastest pitcher to the plate so that may be something to keep in mind for the speedy bats in the Brewers lineup. That said, Arrieta is still having an excellent season and he owns an elite K/9 of 9.5. He makes a nice tournament play against a team that he will have the platoon advantage over. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8000 FD, $14400 DD, $9500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Gerardo Parra – Parra had a big game filling in for Carlos Gomez yesterday and will likely be in the lineup again tonight against Arrieta. Parra has really hit RH pitching well this season and will likely be aggressive on the base pads as Arrieta had a very tough time holding runners at first in his last start.
Additional Plays: Ryan Braun
Chicago Cubs
There really aren’t any options that stand out on the Cubs tonight. If the wind was blowing out, it would be a different story, but I’m expecting this to be one of the lower scoring games of the night.
Texas at Kansas City
| Texas | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Derek Holland | Vegas Moneyline | Jeremy Guthrie | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | KCR (-165) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.296 | 0.836 | 0.367 | 15.30% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.617 | 0.278 | 15.00% | ||||
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Derek Holland – Holland will be making his first start of the season. While he can be a very good lefty when healthy, there are too many concerns with this being his first game back. There’s the issues of rust and a possible pitch limit. I’ll take a wait and see approach on Holland and avoid him tonight against the Royals. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5900 FD, $9150 DD, $7500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie is a sizable favorite tonight against the Rangers, but that’s about all he has going for him. He owns an average ERA (4.43) and K/9 (5.8) on the season. He really struggles against LH hitters and will likely give up a few earned runs tonight. The upside just isn’t there with Guthrie. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $11200 DD, $7300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Leonys Martin – Martin is one of my favorite value plays tonight. He has been swinging a hot bat recently and he has really excelled in that leadoff role. He draws a terrific matchup against Guthrie who has given up a .367 wOBA to LH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Elvis Andrus
Kansas City
Salvador Perez – Perez is one of the top catching options tonight. He draws a nice matchup against a lefty that may struggle a bit in his first start of the season. Perez hits lefties well and should be batting clean-up. He’ll have plenty of chances to drive in some runs tonight.
Additional Plays: Alex Gordon, Alcides Escobar
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
| Chicago White Sox | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Hector Noesi | Vegas Moneyline | Tommy Milone | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIN (-125) | LEFT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.226 | 0.685 | 0.302 | 16.30% | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.732 | 0.323 | 10.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.313 | 0.868 | 0.380 | 18.60% | SP vs. Right | 0.270 | 0.758 | 0.334 | 15.00% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs L | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Hector Noesi – We have a lot of mediocre pitchers on the mound tonight and you can add Noesi’s name to that list. On the season he owns a 4.75 ERA with a K/9 of 6.7. He will have his hands full with the Twins as they own the 4th best offense in baseball over the last 30 days of play. He should be avoided tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6900 FD, $10150 DD, $7900 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Tommy Milone – Milone is another average pitcher taking the mound tonight. He has posted a 4.21 ERA on the season with a low K/9 of 5.6. His low strikeout rate really limits his upside and I’m not a huge fan of the matchup either. The White Sox are a very capable offense that can put runs on the board in a hurry. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5600 FD, $9000 DD, $5700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – Abreu is basically in play every night. He has been terrific this season with a .320 batting average and 33 HR’s. You typically don’t see a guy with as much power as he has hit for that high of an average, but you get the best of both worlds with Abreu. I love the matchup against the lefty Milone.
Additional Plays: Alexei Ramirez
Minnesota
Trevor Plouffe – While I like batters from both sides of the plate in this matchup, Plouffe really stands out. Noesi has had some serious reverse splits this season. He has given up a .380 wOBA to RH hitters and Plouffe has been on fire with 9 XBH’s over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, Brian Dozier
LA Angels at Houston
| LA Angels | Houston | ||||||||
| C.J. Wilson | Vegas Moneyline | Brad Peacock | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | LAA (-115) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.621 | 0.285 | 22.10% | SP vs. Left | 0.271 | 0.802 | 0.353 | 19.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.769 | 0.343 | 19.20% | SP vs. Right | 0.267 | 0.831 | 0.366 | 20.90% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- C.J. Wilson – Wilson has not pitched well since coming back from injury and the biggest red flag is that he is not striking anyone out. He has only struck out more than 5 batters one time in his last 10 starts. Even though he is a sizable favorite, he should be avoided tonight against the Astros who are a very good hitting team against LH pitching. They are ranked 4th in wOBA vs. lefties this season. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7000 FD, $12500 DD, $6700 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Brad Peacock – There are quite a few reasons why you should avoid Peacock tonight, but the main reason is that he is a flyball pitcher that is pitching in a HR-friendly ballpark against a team that hits a lot of HR’s. Basically, I think Peacock will give up a couple of homers tonight. He has given up a .350+ wOBA to batters from both sides of the plate and is way more risk than reward tonight. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5300 FD, $8850 DD, $5700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Mike Trout – As mentioned above, Peacock is a fly ball pitcher that gives up a lot of HR’s. Trout on the other hand is one of the best hitters in baseball. He’s my odds on favorite to homer tonight . He’s also been swinging a hot bat with 13 hits (4 HR’s) over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Josh Hamilton, Kole Calhoun
Houston
Jose Altuve – I have Altuve penciled in as my cash game play at 2B all across the industry. He has mashed LH pitching this season to the tune of a .410 batting average and a .431 wOBA. He has great power for how small he is and he always gives you potential for a stolen base as he has already stolen 49 on the season.
Additional Plays: Chris Carter, Dexter Fowler