MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 30th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Oakland at Kansas City
| Oakland | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Jon Lester | Vegas Moneyline | James Shields | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | KCR (-108) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.696 | 0.309 | 25.10% | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.698 | 0.309 | 19.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.227 | 0.617 | 0.275 | 24.80% | SP vs. Right | 0.250 | 0.706 | 0.310 | 19.20% |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP  | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
What’s up Grinders? The MLB regular season is officially over. As sad as it is, we still have plenty of postseason action for those of you that are still craving some daily fantasy baseball. The matchups in the postseason are tough and the options at each position are limited. The difference between winning or losing could easily come down to one player in your lineup. We will try to give you a few different options from each team. Let’s start with the two Wildcard games.
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jon Lester – The A’s traded Yoenies Cespedes for Jon Lester for this exact situation. The A’s made the playoffs, but are now in a winner-take-all Wildcard match with the Royals to see who will move on to face the Angels. Lester has been terrific throughout his postseason career. In 11 starts, Lester has posted a 1.97 ERA while holding his opponents to a .209 batting average. Lester has also pitched well against the Royals this season, sporting a 2.61 ERA with 20 strikeouts over 21 innings of work. The Royals don’t strike out often as a team, but Lester hasn’t had a problem racking up strikeouts against them this season, and shouldn’t have a problem with that tonight either. Rating = 7
Salaries: $10300 FD, $20500 DD, $12400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- James Shields – “Big Game” James takes the mound for the Royals, who haven’t been to the playoffs in close to 30 years. The whole town of Kansas City is buzzing right now (especially after the Chiefs crushed the Patriots last night). Despite being known as a big-game pitcher, Shields has been pretty mediocre in the playoffs in his career. In six starts, he is 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA. That said, he has the better matchup of the two pitchers and he will be pitching at home. The A’s had the second worst offense in baseball over the last month, while Shields had his best month of the season (2.31 ERA with 30 strikeouts over 35 innings of work). With an entire city on his back, I expect “Big Game” James to carry his team to victory. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $8500 FD, $17250 DD, $9900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Coco Crisp – Much like the rest of this offense, Crisp really struggled down the stretch. Since the All-Star Break, he’s only batting .191 with only eight extra-base hits. Crisp is also only 3/24 lifetime against James Shields. So why is he a recommended play? Crisp has a ton of postseason experience. He has hit .278 in the postseason with 7 XBH’s and four stolen bases in 97 at-bats.
Josh Reddick – Reddick is the one A’s batter that has had good success off of Shields. He is 7/22 with three home runs off of Shields in his career. Reddick is also coming off of a strong finish to the season, as he has posted a .378 wOBA in the month of September.
Additional Plays: Brandon Moss, Jed Lowrie
Kansas City
Eric Hosmer – Hosmer may not be the most obvious choice on the Royals tonight, but he comes into tonight’s game batting .290 with a .362 wOBA in the month of September. He’s a left-handed hitter that has managed to hit left-handed pitching well throughout his career. He has decent numbers against Jon Lester, going 4/13 with three walks drawn in his career.
Alcides Escobar – Escobar will likely be batting lead-off tonight with a lefty on the mound. Escobar doesn’t hit a lot of home runs or drive in a lot of runs, but he gets on base and he can run. He’s batting .313 against left-handed pitching this season and has already stolen 31 bases on the season. The Royals love to manufacture runs, so don’t be surprised to see him be aggressive on the base paths.
Additional Plays: Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez
San Francisco at Pittsburgh
| San Francisco | Pittsburgh | ||||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | Vegas Moneyline | Edinson Volquez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | SFG (-113) | RIGHT | 6.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.215 | 0.539 | 0.239 | 31.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.728 | 0.321 | 17.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.241 | 0.684 | 0.302 | 23.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.634 | 0.286 | 17.20% |
| Batter Splits | SFG BvP | SFG vs R | Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Madison Bumgarner – The Giants postseason hopes all rest on the arm of Madison Bumgarner and that’s just the way that they want it. Bumgarner has been dominant in the second half of the season. He has posted a 2.29 ERA while striking out 9 batters per 9 innings. He’s also held his opponents to a .205 batting average during that stretch. He squares off against a Pirates offense that is ranked 21st in wOBA against left-handed pitching. The Pirates are a scary team to take pitchers against, but that’s pretty much the case for every pitcher now that we are in the postseason. The Giants are a veteran team that knows how to win big games. While I’m pulling for the Buccos, I expect the Giants to pick up the win. Rating = 8
Salaries: $9800 FD, $20900 DD, $12000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Edinson Volquez – Volquez has really pitched well this season, but he’s not exactly your prototypical ace. He’s not a high-strikeout pitcher that can dominate opponents. He walks a lot of batters and is a pitcher whose peripheral stats just don’t line up with his 3.04 ERA. This game is set as a pick ‘em in Vegas, but of the two pitchers, Bumgarner has more upside and will likely pitch deeper into this game. Considering his struggles against the Giants in the past, Volquez is my least favorite pitching option in the two Wildcard games. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $8600 FD, $15500 DD, $8500 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
San Francisco
Buster Posey – While Posey is typically preferred against left-handed pitching, he’s always a solid play in big games. He has a good track record against Edison Volquez, going 5/9 with 2 doubles in his career. Posey is batting .314 with a .366 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and is facing the most hittable pitcher on the board.
Pablo Sandoval – Pablo hasn’t had the best month of September, but he’s been terrific against right-handed pitching all season. He’s batting .317 with a .359 wOBA against righties. Meanwhile, Volquez has given up a .321 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. The Panda has also hit Volquez well going 6/13 with three doubles. He should be batting 4th or 5th tonight.
Additional Plays: Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence
Pittsburgh
Andrew McCutchen – Cutch made a strong push for the NL MVP with a .450 wOBA in the month of September. He’s been one of the best hitters in baseball against left-hand pitching since coming into the majors. He owns a career .328 batting average with a .422 wOBA against southpaws.
Russell Martin – Martin has some reverse splits going on, but he’s still been good against left-handed pitching with a .257 batting average and a .324 wOBA this season. He is 3/7 against Bumgarner in his career and should be batting in the heart of the Buccos lineup.
Additional Plays: Josh Harrison