MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 9th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Atlanta at Washington
| Atlanta | Washington | ||||||||
| Ervin Santana | Vegas Moneyline | Jordan Zimmermann | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-145) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.283 | 0.770 | 0.336 | 19.00% | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.685 | 0.302 | 19.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.221 | 0.644 | 0.289 | 25.80% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.625 | 0.278 | 25.80% |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP  | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Ervin Santana – What’s up Grinders, I’m back from Vegas and ready to get back at it. Santana takes the mound for the Braves tonight. On the season he owns a 3.61 ERA (3.41 xFIP) with a strikeout rate of 8.2 batters per 9 innings. He keeps his walks and HR’s down and is producing a respectable 44% ground ball rate. He may have trouble seeing run support with Zimmermann on the mound, but he’s a nice tournament play against the Nationals who are right around the league average in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 6
Salaries: $8900 FD, $18300 DD, $10100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jordan Zimmermann – Zimmermann is one of the many aces taking the mound tonight. He’s having a terrific 2014 campaign with a 2.93 ERA and a strikeout rate of 8.2 batters per 9 innings. He is only giving up 1.4 walks per 9 innings and 0.63 HR’s per 9 innings. Tonight he draws a terrific matchup against the Braves who are ranked 28th in wOBA against RH pitching this season while striking out at a 22% clip. The upside is there for tournaments and his high floor makes him a great cash game play as well. Rating = 8
Salaries: $9100 FD, $18350 DD, $10700 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
Avoid all Braves tonight against Jordan Zimmermann who has held both LH and RH hitters under a .305 wOBA this season.
Washington
Denard Span – Span is really the only Nationals bat that I have any interest in tonight. Santana has given up a .335 wOBA to LH hitters and Span has a great track record off of him in the past. He’s 12/30 against Santana with 3 XBH’s. Span has also been swinging a hot bat with 15 hits over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: None
Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
| Pittsburgh | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Edinson Volquez | Vegas Moneyline | David Buchanan | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | PIT (-135) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.737 | 0.326 | 17.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.213 | 0.557 | 0.254 | 11.20% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.655 | 0.293 | 15.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.294 | 0.860 | 0.373 | 17.00% |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Edinson Volquez – Volquez has really pitched well since the start of July. He has an ERA right around 2.50 while holding batters under a .250 batting average. He doesn’t own an elite strikeout rate (6.2 per 9 innings), but he’s a very serviceable fantasy option, especially on multi-pitcher sites. His 50% ground ball rate should help minimize some of the ballpark factors in the HR-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7400 FD, $14050 DD, $7000 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- David Buchanan – Buchanan has had some ups and downs in his rookie season, but he pitched well in August with a 3.30 ERA. On the season, he owns a 3.95 ERA with a pedestrian strikeout rate of 5.9 per 9 innings. His limited upside makes him a tough play in any type of league. It also doesn’t help that he is facing a Pirates offense that is ranked 3rd in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6400 FD, $12400 DD, $6900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Josh Harrison – Harrison is one of my favorite plays tonight. The sample size with Buchanan is still relatively small, but he has been a serious reverse splits pitcher this season. He has given up a .373 wOBA to RH hitters and Harrison has been red hot over his last 10 games with 18 hits, 8 of which went for extra bases.
Additional Plays: Andrew McCutchen
Philadelphia
Ben Revere – Revere always seems to fly under the radar despite his high floor which is something that we like to target for cash games. Revere is batting .300 against RH pitching this season and has been red hot over his last 10 games with 14 hits, 4 of which went for extra bases. Additionally, his stolen base potential goes up as he is facing a RH pitcher.
Additional Plays: Chase Utley
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
| Tampa Bay | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Chris Archer | Vegas Moneyline | Hiroki Kuroda | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-130) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.652 | 0.295 | 20.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.689 | 0.304 | 13.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.265 | 0.694 | 0.310 | 21.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.647 | 0.287 | 20.10% |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Archer – Archer is hoping to bounce back after two terrible outings in a row. After giving up 7 earned runs to the Red Sox, he backed it up by giving up 6 earned runs to the Blue Jays. The most concerning part is that both of those starts were at Tropicana Field where Archer has really pitched well throughout his career. While I do expect Archer to bounce back soon, he draws a tough matchup against the Yankees who, as a team, make great contact (18.6% strikeout rate). The risk outweighs the reward here. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $ FD, $NA DD, $NA DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Hiroki Kuroda – If you are looking to save some cap space at pitcher tonight, Kuroda is a viable option. He has pitched well this season with a 3.78 ERA and a strikeout rate of 6.2 per 9 innings. Kuroda has been sharp in his last 3 starts by striking out a combined 18 batters while only giving up a combined 5 earned runs. Kuroda looks confident on the mound and should be licking his chops for his matchup against the Rays who are the coldest offense in baseball over the last 30 days. Rating = 6.5
*Salaries: *
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Evan Longoria is in play here, but Adrian Beltre and Josh Donaldson both have better matchups. Kuroda should pitch well tonight and I’ll likely be avoiding the Rays altogether.
NY Yankees
Jacoby Ellsbury – BvP fans rejoice! The sample size is small, but Ellsbury has good history against Archer. He has gone 8/12 off of him in his career and has also drawn 3 walks against him for a career OBP of .733. Ellsbury’s stolen base potential goes up with a righty on the mound and I don’t mind the play against a struggling Archer.
Additional Plays: Brett Gardner
Minnesota at Cleveland
| Minnesota | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Trevor May | Vegas Moneyline | Trevor Bauer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-170) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.727 | 0.325 | 23.00% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.373 | 0.977 | 0.432 | 18.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.261 | 0.747 | 0.329 | 20.90% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Trevor May – May’s major-league career hasn’t gotten off to the roaring success that he had to have been hoping for. In his first 6 major-league appearances, May owns a 9.38 ERA while walking more than 5 batters per 9 innings. He has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate and draws a tough matchup against the Indians who are ranked 5th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. He can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 2
Salaries: $ FD, $NA DD, $NA DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Trevor Bauer – Bauer makes a nice tournament play tonight. While most of his numbers this season are pretty average, he owns an elite strikeout rate of 8.6 per 9 innings. In daily fantasy baseball, strikeouts are king for pitchers and you aren’t going to find many options at his price range with the same strikeout potential. The matchup against the Twins isn’t ideal, but he should see plenty of run support with Trevor May on the mound. I’m expecting something in the range of 6 innings, 6 strikeouts, a couple of earned runs, and a win. I’ll take that at his price any day of the week. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6600 FD, $12900 DD, $6400 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
Kennys Vargas – Vargas has been one of my favorite value plays at 1B ever since being called up from the minors. He’s been terrific from both sides of the plate and his price on FD is still only $3,100. Vargas is batting .330 with a .396 wOBA vs. RH pitching this season.
Additional Plays: Joe Mauer
Cleveland
Carlos Santana – Santana has not hit for a high average this season, but has terrific power. Even though he is only batting .204 against RH pitching, 17 of his 25 HR’s have come off of righties. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities in what may be the best matchup for any offense on the schedule tonight.
Additional Plays: Michael Brantley, Jason Kipnis, Michael Bourn, Jose Ramirez
Chicago Cubs at Toronto
| Chicago Cubs | Toronto | ||||||||
| Jake Arrieta | Vegas Moneyline | Mark Buehrle | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TOR (-135) | LEFT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.213 | 0.598 | 0.269 | 28.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.278 | 0.750 | 0.331 | 14.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.207 | 0.537 | 0.242 | 23.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.285 | 0.742 | 0.328 | 13.40% |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jake Arrieta – Arrieta has quietly pitched very well this season. He owns a 2.81 ERA on the season with an impressive strikeout rate of 9.3 batters per 9 innings. He’s producing a 49% ground ball rate and has managed to keep the ball in the park, giving up only 0.33 HR’s per 9 innings. With all of that said, I will not be targeting him tonight against the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. As a team, the Blue Jays are ranked 1st in all of baseball in wOBA against RH pitching. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $8100 FD, $14400 DD, $9500 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Mark Buehrle – Buehrle owns a 3.34 ERA on the season, but in terms of fantasy potential, that’s about all he has going for him tonight. Buehrle has a low strikeout rate (5.3 per 9 innings) and he’s pitching in the very hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. While the Cubs do strike out often against LH pitching (25%), they are actually ranked 7th in wOBA vs. lefties this season. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6500 FD, $11900 DD, $5300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Jorge Soler – Soler has fit in nicely in the majors. He’s batting .378 with 3 HR’s and 11 RBI’s in his first 10 major-league games. I love the matchup tonight against Buehrle who has given up a .328 wOBA to RH hitters this season.
Additional Plays: Wellington Castillo, Javier Baez
Toronto
Jose Reyes – Even though Arrieta has pitched well this season, Vegas is expecting a high scoring game here and so am I. Reyes has great stolen base potential against RH pitching and Arrieta isn’t the quickest pitcher to the plate. Look for him to be aggressive on the base pads tonight.
Additional Plays: Adam Lind, Jose Bautista
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2