MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, September 9th Page Two
Kansas City at Detroit
| Kansas City | Detroit | ||||||||
| Jason Vargas | Vegas Moneyline | Max Scherzer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | DET (-160) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.680 | 0.303 | 15.10% | SP vs. Left | 0.240 | 0.687 | 0.305 | 24.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.257 | 0.698 | 0.308 | 16.20% | SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.622 | 0.275 | 34.20% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP  | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jason Vargas – Vargas is an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. He has an average strikeout rate of 5.9 batters per 9 innings and draws what may be the toughest matchup on the board. The Tigers are ranked 2nd in wOBA against RH pitching and 2nd in home wOBA. Not only is it a bad matchup, but he’ll likely see little to no run support with Scherzer on the mound. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6900 FD, $12950 DD, $7100 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Max Scherzer – Scherzer is one of the top targets tonight. He is having another dominant season with a 3.25 ERA and an impressive K/9 of 10.5. He has kept his walks and HR’s allowed down and will be looking for a much better performance against the Royals as they knocked him around a bit in their last meeting. While the Royals don’t strike out as often as most teams, Scherzer should still be able to rack up the K’s and pick up a win here. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $10800 FD, $21750 DD, $12800 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Avoid all Royals tonight against Max Scherzer who has held both LH and RH hitters under a .305 wOBA this season.
Detroit
Victor Martinez – Martinez has mashed LH pitching this season with a .380 batting average and a .487 wOBA against southpaws. He has also been swinging a hot bat as he is riding a 9-game hitting streak in which he has accumulated 16 hits (6 of which went for extra bases).
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez
Baltimore at Boston
| Baltimore | Boston | ||||||||
| Chris Tillman | Vegas Moneyline | Anthony Ranaudo | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BAL (-135) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.648 | 0.290 | 17.20% | SP vs. Left | 0.259 | 0.778 | 0.345 | 6.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.679 | 0.301 | 16.00% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Chris Tillman – Tillman owns a 3.40 ERA this season, but his xFIP is nearly a full run higher. He’s had the benefit of some good luck and some good defense behind him. He owns an average K/9 of 6.3 and he hasn’t pitched well on the road. I’ll be avoiding him tonight against the Red Sox in Fenway. He’s overpriced for his matchup. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7400 FD, $14000 DD, $8400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Anthony Ranaudo – Ranaudo has given up at least 2 earned runs in each of his first 4 major-league starts. He owns a 4.63 ERA and has given up a fly-ball rate of 49%. The Orioles hit a lot of HR’s which does not bode well for most fly-ball pitchers. He can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4
Salaries: $4200 FD, $9100 DD, $6000 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Nelson Cruz – Cruz is typically preferred against a lefty, but he is no slouch against RH pitching either. He has a .360 wOBA vs. righties this season and he’s been red hot over his last 10 games with 15 hits, 5 of which were HR’s.
Additional Plays: Chris Davis, Adam Jones
Boston
David Ortiz – Ortiz is a great tournament play at 1B tonight. As mentioned above, Tillman hasn’t pitched nearly as well as his 3.40 ERA suggests. Ortiz has 32 HR’s on the season, 21 of which have come off of RH pitching.
Additional Plays: Brock Holt
Colorado at NY Mets
| Colorado | NY Mets | ||||||||
| Christian Bergman | Vegas Moneyline | Jacob Degrom | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYM (-175) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.237 | 0.647 | 0.290 | 15.40% | SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.686 | 0.308 | 21.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.363 | 1.108 | 0.468 | 7.20% | SP vs. Right | 0.230 | 0.612 | 0.272 | 24.00% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Christian Bergman – Even though he draws a favorable matchup against the Mets in Citi Field, Bergman is one of the riskier fantasy options tonight. He has not pitched well this season with a 5.23 ERA which is higher than his strikeout rate of only 4.4 K’s per 9 innings. Until he proves that he has more upside, I will continue to avoid him in all leagues. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5000 FD, $8750 DD, $4400 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Jacob Degrom – Dollar for dollar, deGrom may be my top pitching option tonight. He is having a terrific rookie season with a 2.87 ERA and an elite strikeout rate of 8.45 batters per 9 innings. He is producing a 45% ground ball rate and is only allowing 0.53 HR’s per 9 innings. He draws a favorable matchup against a Rockies offense that is ranked 29th in road wOBA this season while striking out at a 24.2% clip. Take the discount and use deGrom over some of the more expensive aces. Rating = 9
Salaries: $8200 FD, $18700 DD, $9600 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Avoid all Rockies tonight against Jacob deGrom who has held both LH and RH hitters under a .310 wOBA this season.
NY Mets
David Wright – The sample size is small, but thus far, Bergman has been a reverse splits pitcher. He has given up a .468 wOBA to RH hitters. Wright has multi-hit games in 4 of his last 8 and now has 14 hits over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Juan Lagares, Travis d’Arnaud
St. Louis at Cincinnati
| St. Louis | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Michael Wacha | Vegas Moneyline | Mike Leake | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-130) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.225 | 0.583 | 0.265 | 19.60% | SP vs. Left | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.352 | 13.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.220 | 0.630 | 0.285 | 25.40% | SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 0.664 | 0.293 | 21.60% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Michael Wacha – Wacha only threw 50 pitches in his first in almost 3 months. The Cardinals are going to bring him back slowly and while I expect him to throw a few more pitches tonight, 5 innings will likely be his max. For that reason, he can be ignored for fantasy purposes. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7800 FD, $16600 DD, $8800 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Mike Leake – Leake is looking to bounce back after giving up 7 earned runs to the Orioles in his last start. While he only gave up 7 hits, 3 of those were HR’s. On the season, Leake has a 3.59 ERA with a K/9 of 6.8. He has produced a career-high 54% ground ball rate which has allowed him to keep his HR’s allowed down for the most part. In terms of the matchup, the Cardinals are a very good offense, especially when September rolls around. For the price, I think there are better options. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7500 FD, $13150 DD, $8300 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Matt Carpenter – Leake has pitched well this season, but he has still struggled with LH hitters. He has given up a .352 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate this season. Carpenter on the other hand, has hit RH pitching well and he’s been seeing the ball well as he has reached base safely 17 times in his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Matt Adams, Jhonny Peralta
Cincinnati
This is a tough matchup to gauge because the Reds will likely see Wacha for 4-5 innings and then see the Cardinals bullpen after that. There aren’t any plays that stand out here.
LA Angels at Texas
| LA Angels | Texas | ||||||||
| Hector Santiago | Vegas Moneyline | Colby Lewis | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | 9.0 | |||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.216 | 0.559 | 0.253 | 21.80% | SP vs. Left | 0.337 | 0.901 | 0.392 | 16.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.702 | 0.313 | 20.20% | SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.803 | 0.348 | 20.40% |
| Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Hector Santiago – Santiago owns a 3.46 ERA this season, but has an xFIP that is a full run higher than his ERA. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher (51.4% fly-ball rate) that is pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark. I do expect him to see plenty of run support with Lewis on the mound, but I’m trusting the numbers here and will be avoiding Santiago against the Rangers. Rating = 5
Salaries: $6100 FD, $11850 DD, $7600 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD
- Colby Lewis – Lewis has been on the do not touch list since the very start of the season. He owns a 5.42 ERA on the year and he has given up a .345+ wOBA to hitters from both sides of the plate. The Angels offense has been cold over the last month of play, but that’s not nearly enough to persuade me to use a roster spot on the ever-struggling Lewis. Rating = 4
*Salaries: *
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
Mike Trout – Trout is one of the best hitters in baseball and he is facing Lewis who is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. Trout has a .392 wOBA against RH pitching this season and is always a threat to steal a base even though he only has 14 on the season. Lewis on the other hand has given up a .348 wOBA to RH hitters and has already given up 20 HR’s on the year.
Additional Plays: Kole Calhoun, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick
Texas
Adrian Beltre – Beltre has crushed LH pitching all season long with a .339 batting average and a .413 wOBA. He has also been terrific at home with a .425 wOBA. You have to like his chances to homer tonight as he is facing Hector Santiago who, as mentioned above, is an extreme fly-ball pitcher.
Additional Plays: Alex Rios, Elvis Andrus