MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 15th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-17 18:15:05

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.

Miami at Atlanta

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Haren – The days of Haren posting ERA’s under 3.00 for the season are most certainly behind us, but some promising xFIP numbers the last two years indicate that he’s more than capable of being a serviceable pitcher for the Marlins this season. He was solid in his debut with his new team, allowing just one run (a solo HR) on four hits over six innings against Tampa Bay. He pitched quite well against the Braves in their only meeting last season and only the San Diego Padres had a worse wOBA in MLB last season than Atlanta (.290 wOBA). Haren has a track-record for being victimized by the long ball, but luckily for him this is an Atlanta lineup that lacks a ton of raw power. Rating = 5

Eric Stults – After two solid seasons starting for the Padres, things took a turn for the worse last year as Stults posted a 4.30 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 176 innings. He was able to get things together down the stretch however, as he posted a solid 3.40 in 13 second half starts. He’ll no longer call Petco Park home and there’s not much to like here from a fantasy standpoint. Stults only averaged 87.9 mph with his fastball last season and his curveball simply doesn’t belong in the big leagues. The matchup isn’t a terrible one, but the upside here is just non-existent. Rating = 3.5

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – Stanton’s bat came alive last night and he posted video game-esque numbers against left-handed pitching last season; a .453 wOBA and .287 ISO. Stults served up 1.33 HR/9 in 2014 and won’t come across a more dangerous power-hitter this season.

Secondary Plays:Martin Prado, Michael Morse, Jeff Baker

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Freeman went deep last night and his .388 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season led this Braves team. He’s relatively cheap on several sites and the most dangerous hitter in this Atlanta lineup.

Secondary Plays:Nick Markakis

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland

Pitcher Grind Down

John Danks – Danks’ lackluster performance in his first start this season is a fairly reasonable example of what to expect from him this season. The veteran left-hander can no longer sniff 90 MPH with his fastball and he’s posted back-to-back seasons with a 4.74 ERA. His 15% strikeout rate leaves a lot to be desired and he was pure garbage on the road last season; posting a 5.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP during his 17 starts away from U.S. Cellular Field. This is a fairly left-handed heavy Indians lineup, but that didn’t stop them from beating up on Danks last season. Rating = 4

Trevor Bauer – Bauer has been a highly touted pitching prospect for years and his performance in his 2015 debut showed what all the hype has been about. Bauer mowed down the Astros in six shutout innings, allowing zero hits while striking out 11. He did, however, issue five free passes and it’s been his control problems that have caused him lots of trouble thus far in his short MLB career. Bauer dominated this White Sox team in their only meeting last season (6.2 shutout innings with 10 K’s) and was much more effective at Progressive Field as well. When he struggles to locate his mid-90’s fastball, he can quickly get into trouble and/or rack up pitches in a hurry, and for those reasons he’s a better option in GPP’s with the potential to have the best outing of the night. Rating = 6.5

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Adam Eaton – Eaton has gotten off to a terrible start thus far this season, but has now picked up hits in back-to-back games for the first time this season and owned a solid .344 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Only four pitchers in MLB allowed more stolen bases than Bauer last season and Eaton should continue to find himself in the leadoff spot for the White Sox.

Secondary Plays:Jose Abreu, Conor Gillaspie, Adam LaRoche

Cleveland

Jerry Sands – Sands made an appearance in the Indians lineup yesterday (in the #5 spot) and owns a career .309 average and .892 OPS against southpaws. Right-handed batters posted a .355 wOBA against Danks last season and Sands would be a very nice punt play in the OF if he stays near the top half of the Indians order.

Secondary Plays:Ryan Raburn, Carlos Santana, Mike Aviles

Washington at Boston

Pitcher Grind Down

Gio Gonzalez – Shoulder inflammation cost Gio Gonzalez a month of the 2014 season, but the southpaw continues to be an overlooked weapon for this Washington pitching staff. He finished 2014 with an ERA well under 4.00 for the fifth straight season and continues to rack up a strikeout per inning. This a much more lethal version of the Boston team that managed just a .307 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and Gio hasn’t fared too well at Fenway Park in his few chances; sporting a 4.84 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in four previous starts. Gio can be filthy and still makes for a fine GPP target, but the hitter-friendly environment and tough matchup make him a risky cash game target. Rating = 6

Wade Miley – Miley took a step backwards in 2014 for Arizona and failed to the 3.45 combined ERA he had posted during the 2012 and 2013 seasons. However, his xFIP of 3.50 and .317 BABIP last season suggest that the left-hander simply ran into some bad luck. Miley saw his strikeout rate spike to a career-high 8.18 K/9 in last year and continues to force an abundance of groundballs which really helps offset some of his control issues. The Nationals won’t be an easy opponent, as they posted a .322 wOBA against left-handed pitching, but they’re still missing several key contributors. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Ryan Zimmerman – Zimmerman owns a .308 batting average and .890 OPS against left-handed pitching during his career and has gone 4 for 7 with three doubles in his career off of Wade Miley. He had a potentially 400+ foot home run go about a foot foul in the 9th inning last night and homered at Fenway on Monday.

Secondary Plays:Ian Desmond

Boston

Mike Napoli – Gio can be filthy, but Mike Napoli posted an impressive .407 wOBA against left-handed pitching in 2014 and already owns a career homerun (in just 10 Abs) against Gio Gonzalez.

Secondary Plays:Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez

LA Angels at Texas

Pitcher Grind Down

Hector Santiago – A high-strikeout pitcher early in his career, Santiago has seen his average fastball velocity dip with each subsequent season in the big leagues, and his 7.63 K/9 in 2014 was the lowest of his career. While the strikeout numbers may be on the decline, the southpaw found his groove last season and finished the season with a 5-2 record and 2.98 ERA in 12 second-half starts. He’ll head to Fort Worth, TX tonight to take on a Rangers team that not only owned the 4th best wOBA in the league against lefties last season (.333 wOBA) but who also torched Santiago for 18 runs in 24.1 innings. Rating = 4.5

Anthony Ranaudo – Anthony Ranaudo was terrific for the Red Sox on his way through their minor league system (14-4 with a 2.61 ERA for AAA Pawtucket last season), but that success hasn’t carried over to the big leagues in his few opportunities. With Derek Holland headed to the DL, Ranaudo will get a chance to make up for a rather poor spring and show the Rangers that he deserves a chance in this rotation. He’ll be thrown into the fire tonight as this is a loaded Angels lineup that posted a .315 wOBA against right-handed pitching. Rating = 2.5

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Mike Trout – Trout has picked up at least one hit in every single game this year and posted a .398 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. He’s expensive, but a great target against the inexperienced Ranaudo.

Secondary Plays:Albert Pujols, Matt Joyce

Texas

Adrian Beltre – With a lefty on the mound for the Angels, Beltre is the best option on this Rangers team as he sported a sick .421 wOBA against left-handed pitching in 2014. If that wasn’t enough, Beltre crushed the ball at Rangers Stadium last season, posting a .355 batting average and .958 OPS in from of the Texas faithful.

Secondary Plays:Elvis Andrus, Jake Smolinski

NY Yankees at Baltimore

Pitcher Grind Down

Nathan Eovaldi – At times, Eovaldi looks like one of the game’s best young pitchers… and at others, he looks completely unprepared for life in the big leagues. The 25-year-old can flat out throw gas and when he’s locating his fastball, he’s close to unhittable. He entered last season’s all-star break with a promising 5-4 record and 3.61 ERA, but completely fell apart thereafter and owned an ugly 1-10 record with a 5.51 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 14 second-half starts. The Orioles possess an extremely dangerous lineup and owned a .326 wOBA at Camden Yards last season, so Eovaldi is better served as a GPP only option. Rating = 4.5

Bud Norris – One bad start to start the season isn’t usually a reason for panic, but after an abysmal spring that saw Norris post a 9.26 ERA, those eight earned runs in just three innings of work against Toronto on Friday night are concerning. Norris has really struggled against left-handed batters during his career and this Yankees team can easily trot out a lineup with eight guys from the left side of the plate. With that said, Norris posted an impressive 8-2 record and 2.44 ERA at Camden Yards last year and mowed down this Yankees team in 2014; winning all four starts while posting a 2.74 ERA and fanning 28 batters in 23 innings. Last year’s success could lead many to the conclusion that this is a nice matchup for Norris, but I’m likely staying away. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Jacoby Ellsbury – Lefties posted a .333 wOBA against Bud Norris last season and the Orioles right-hander allowed 15 stolen bases last season; with both things pointing at Ellsbury as a great play. The speedy leadoff hitter extended his current hitting streak to six games and is still reasonably priced on several sites.

Secondary Plays:Brett Gardner, Chase Headley, Mark Teixeira

Baltimore

Chris Davis – Lefties own a career .294 batting average off of Eovaldi during his career and, despite another lackluster start to the season, Davis owns an .850 OPS during his career against right-handed pitching. Eovaldi will likely try to overpower “Crush” with his fastball and Davis certainly has the power to put a dent into the warehouse behind right right-field seats.

Secondary Plays:Everth Cabrera, Adam Jones

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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