MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 15 - Page Three

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-15 14:54:41

Kansas City at Minnesota

Pitcher Grind Down

Edinson Volquez – Volquez parlayed his terrific 2014 campaign into a two-year/$20 million contract with the Royals during the offseason. He allowed just one run on four hits over eight innings against the White Sox in his Kansas City debut and will look to build upon the momentum he gained after posting a 13-7 record with a 3.04 ERA with Pittsburgh last season. With that said, there are several red flags within his advanced stats; 1) His K% has dipped in each of the last three seasons, 2) he’ll be hard-pressed to maintain last season’s BABIP of just .263, and 3) his xFIP has been north of 4.00 in each of the last four seasons. The move to the American League is not good for his season long outlook, but squaring off against a Minnesota lineup that has been hot garbage to start the season is certainly a plus. Rating = 5.5

Kyle Gibson – A quick look through his 2014 game logs pretty much tells the story here; Gibson is extremely inconsistent. The 27-year-old allowed five or more earned runs in 11 of his 31 starts but also managed to sprinkle several absolute pitching gems in there as well. He was laughed out of Comerica Park in his 2015 debut as the Tigers blasted him for six runs (and 13 baserunners) before knocking him out of the game after just 3.2 innings of “work”. The Kansas City Royals happen to be one of the teams that Gibson dominated last season but they owned the fewest strikeouts in MLB last year and Gibson’s 5.22 K/9 during his breif career is dreadful. He’s a GPP only option. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Mike Moustakas – “Mouse Tacos” has finally gotten off to a nice start and enters tonight’s game sporting a .360 average and 1.140 OPS on the young season. He’s been far more productive against right-handed pitching in his career and appears to be enjoying batting in the #2 hole for the Royals.

Secondary Plays:Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon

Minnesota

Kennys Vargas – The switch-hitting Vargas prefers to swing the bat from the left-side of the plate (.859 career OPS as a lefty) and that’s where he’ll be tonight against Volquez. The 24-year-old is off to an inauspicious start to the season, but he was a force to deal with at the Target Center last season, where he posted a .297 average and .905 OPS.

Secondary Plays:Joe Mauer

Milwaukee at St. Louis

Pitcher Grind Down

Wily Peralta – 2014 was the coming out party for Wily Peralta as the right-hander posted a 17-11 record with a 3.53 ERA over 32 starts. He’s armed with a fastball that consistently hits the mid 90’s and was able to induce a healthy number of ground balls (53.6%). Peralta was better on the road last season (3.33 road ERA) and carved up these St. Louis batters; posting a 3-1 record with a 2.18 ERA in five meetings. While he seems destined to improve upon last years 6.98 K/9, his fantasy ceiling is a bit limited until it happens. Rating = 6

Lance Lynn – Lynn was terrific in his 2015 debut, but was out-dueled by Jake Arrieta after allowing just one run on two hits (with 9 strikeouts) is six innings of work against the Cubs. With at least 15 wins in each of the last three seasons for the Cardinals, Lynn will look to get a “W” against a Milwaukee Brewers team who he dominated last season; compiling a 2-0 record with a 1.80 ERA and 26 strikeouts over 25 innings. Since the beginning of 2012, Lynn owns a 27-11 record with a sparkling 2.81 ERA and 8.46 K/9 in 46 starts at Busch Stadium. He never seems to get the credit he deserves, but the big right-hander is one of the better options on the board today. Rating =8

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Gerardo Parra – Lynn is one of the better pitching options on the board, so I definitely won’t be targeting him heavily but Parra’s dominance against him can’t be ignored. Lynn has been more susceptible to left-handed batters and Parra is 8 for 17 with two doubles, two triples and two home runs off of the right-hander. If he’s in the lineup, he’s a nice punt option.

Secondary Plays:Aramis Ramirez

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter – Lefties owned a .361 wOBA off of Wily Peralta last season and Carpenter owned a .343 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Carpenter has picked up a pair of hits in back-to-back games and has absolutely smashed Peralta in the past, going 9 for 21 with a home run.

Secondary Plays:Kolten Wong, Matt Adams, Jason Heyward

Arizona at San Diego

Pitcher Grind Down

Chase Anderson – A solid rookie campaign secured Anderson a spot in the Arizona Rotation and he’ll look to improve upon his 9-7 record and 4.01 ERA from last season. His stuff won’t blow hitters away, but he possesses an above average curveball that he’s utilized to use to rack up strikeouts at every stop along the way to the Big Show. He’s serves up an unhealthy dosage of fly balls (just a 39.9% GB% last year) but should benefit from a drastic park change with tonight’s game being at Petco Park rather than the hitter-friendly Chase Field. This is an improved San Diego lineup, but they’re proving to be very strikeout prone early this season. Rating = 5

Brandon Morrow – The former first-round pick struggled to begin his MLB career, and after showing flashes of brilliance during the 2011 season, he finally put everything together in 2012; posting an impressive 10-7 record with a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts for the Blue Jays. Unfortunately everything came crashing down on Morrow after that as he stumbled out of the gate in 2013 and then suffered an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Now, apparently back to full health with the Padres, he’ll look to begin his comeback story. He was dominant in his first start this season; holding the San Francisco Giants to just four hits (and three walks) over seven shutout innings while striking out seven batters. It was only one start, but we saw his velocity back to where it was pre-surgery and there’s plenty of optimism in San Diego. He’s still a risk, but Arizona owned the league’s third-worst road wOBA last season (.283) and Morrow’s always been a high strikeout pitcher. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Morrow is by no means a pitcher to avoid, but with Vegas setting this over/under at just 6.5 and the Diamondbacks facing a dramatic park shift into Petco Field, there are just too many better options on the board.

Secondary Plays:Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock

San Diego

Justin Upton – If you want to take a trip down Narrative Street, then give Upton a look against his former team. Upton is another guy with at least one hit in every single game thus far this season and he’s also 1 for 2 with a home run and a walk against Anderson in their very brief history.

Secondary Plays:Yonder Alonso, Matt Kemp

Seattle at LA Dodgers

Pitcher Grind Down

Taijuan Walker – As one of the most coveted pitching prospects in baseball this season, the Mariners are hoping Walker is ready to provide another fantastic arm to their starting rotation. After a spring training that saw the 22-year-old post a 4-0 record with a 0.67 ERA, 0.56 WHIP and 26 strikeouts in 27 innings, things were certainly promising. Then came Friday night in Oakland… where Walker was absolutely pounded by the Oakland Athletics in his season debut, coughing up nine runs on nine hits before heading to the dugout after tossing just 3.1 innings. Walker can approach the upper 90’s with his fastball and his strikeout rates have been off the charts in the minor leagues, but it remains to be seen how he’ll bounce back from that disaster in his first start. Things won’t be easy for him tonight as he’ll take on a Dodgers team that owned MLB’s third best wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2014. He’s a high-risk/high-reward option. Rating = 5

Brett Anderson – Injuries have been the downfall for Anderson during his promising career, but luckily for DFSer’s, we’re only concerned about his health one start at a time. The craft left-hander owns a career ERA of 3.74 (and has never had an xFIP exceed 3.66 in any season) and managed to pitch very well as a Rockie last season (2.91 ERA during his eight starts). With a home matchup against a left-handed heavy Seattle team that owned just a .284 team wOBA against left-handed pitching last season makes him an intriguing option. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Nelson Cruz – Cruz’ destruction of left-handed pitching continued last night as he took David Huff deep in his first at bat. Cruz posted a .416 wOBA against lefties last season and has blasted five home runs in the last four games.

Secondary Plays:Mike Zunino, Austin Jackson

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – His price has raised across the industry (and in some cases, it’s just too high) but A-Gon enters tonight’s game with hits in every single game this season and owning a .548 average and a ridiculous 1.815 OPS. He posted a .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and should have success against the inexperienced Walker.

Secondary Plays:Yasiel Puig, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins

Colorado at San Francisco

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Matzek – All-in-all, 2014 was a pretty impressive rookie season for Matzek, as the 24-year-old finished things up with a 4.05 ERA over 117.2 innings despite being tasked with pitching half of his innings at Coors Field. He finished the season on a roll, posting a 4-3 record with a 1.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and picking up 43 strikeouts in 47.1 innings over his last seven starts. He’ll look to take advantage of an extreme park shift tonight at the spacious AT&T Park when he takes on this Giants team who he pitched very well against in their only meeting last season. Matzek’s prone to control problems and this Giants team has proved to be very patient at the plate, so there’s certainly some risk here. Rating = 5

Tim Lincecum – Trusting Lincecum with your money is not for the faint of heart. Once among the best pitchers in baseball, Timmy has been downright bad for the better part of the last three seasons. Despite the poor results, Lincecum’s never posted an xFIP north of 3.82 in any of his eight seasons with the Giants and his strikeout rates, while on a slow decline, are still top-notch. Lincecum was far more effective at AT&T Park last season, posting a 9-2 record with a 3.91 ERA over 94.1 innings. Only the San Diego Padres owned a lower wOBA on the road than the Colorado Rockies did last season and Lincecum pitched well against them in their only meeting last season. His declining fastball velocity is a concern, but he’s still a viable GPP target. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6600 FD, $7500 DK, $5500 FA, $ Vic, $8850 DD, $ FF

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Lincecum isn’t scary enough to avoid at this point in his career, but it’s hard to pay expensive prices for these Colorado players away from Coors.

Secondary Plays:Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson

San Francisco

Buster Posey – Righties posted a .371 wOBA against Matzek last season and Posey has destroyed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .331 career batting average and .967 OPS. He looks ripe for a big night and is my favorite catching option on the board.

Secondary Plays:Angel Pagan