MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 22 - Page Three

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-22 17:02:16

San Diego at Colorado

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields – James Shields has been solid in all three starts as a Padre, but tonight represents a whole new challenge as he’ll take the mound at Coors Field for just the third time in his career. He didn’t have much success in the first two attempts as he’s served up three home runs and allowed seven runs in just 12 innings of work. He’s posted at least seven strikeouts in each of his starts this season and the move to the National League should help his overall numbers, but this Rockies team posted a ridiculous .390 wOBA at home last season and Shields should be viewed as a GPP only option. Rating = 5

Salaries: $8700 FD, $8100 DK, $7000 FA, $15650 DD, $133000 FF

Kyle Kendrick – Kenrick was kinda fun to pick on last season with the Phillies, and now that he’s playing half of his games at Coors Field, things could get laughable this season. He’s coughed up 14 earned runs in his last two starts and has never once posted an xFIP under 4.00. This new Padres lineup has proven to be quite capable of putting up crooked numbers and Kendrick owns a 6.33 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in seven career starts at Coors. He offers little strikeout potential and is the easiest pitcher on the board for me to fade. Rating = 1

Salaries: $6300 FD, $4000 DK, $5000 FA, $8800 DD, $68900 FF

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

When Kendrick was signed by the Rockies this off-season, I immediately thought “Wow, I can’t wait to stack against him at Coors”. Well today is the day! Everyone in the top six of this Padres lineup tonight is an elite play (especially the lefties).

Secondary Plays:

Everyone in the top six of the San Diego lineup is in play.

Colorado

Troy Tulowitzki – He’s the best fantasy shortstop on the board and posted a ridiculous .530 wOBA at Coors Field last season.

Carlos Gonzalez – James Shields is a tough pitcher to face, but Carlos Gonzalez has had his number in the past, going 5 for 9 with a double and a pair of home runs off of him. Throw in the fact that Cargo owned a .407 wOBA at Coors Field last season and that his slow start has brought his price down across the industry and you have one of my favorite picks on the board.

Secondary Plays:

Charlie Blackmon, Justin Morneau, Nolan Arenado (if healthy), Corey Dickerson (if healthy)

Texas at Arizona

Pitcher Grind Down

Yovani Gallardo – Gallardo was great on Friday night as he held the Mariners scoreless over six innings of work and picked up his second win of the season. While his days of winning 17 games in a season may very well be over, Gallardo is still a very capable pitcher and the right-hander has now tossed at least 180 innings with an xFIP well below 4.00 in each of the last six seasons. He was terrific on the road last season as a Milwaukee Brewer, posting a 6-4 record with a 2.70 ERA in 16 starts and he dominated this Arizona team in their only meeting; allowing just one run on five hits over seven innings. Chase Field isn’t always friendly to pitchers, but at least being in an NL ballpark will once again give Gallardo a few AB’s against an opposing pitcher. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7600 FD, $6500 DK, $5600 FA, $12050 DD, $88500 FF

Archie Bradley – Despite matching up against both Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner in his first two MLB starts, Bradley has led the Diamondbacks to wins in both games. Expectations are high for the former first round pick and he certainly hasn’t disappointed thus far, as he owns a 1.42 ERA and 0.87 WHIP after two starts. He was also brilliant this spring, posting a 1.61 ERA over 22.1 innings of work. Tonight’s home matchup against the Texas Rangers is easily his best matchup to date, but control problems have been a consistent theme for the 22-year-old and that makes him a risky option who is still probably better suited for GPP use. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7300 FD, $6800 DK, $5500 FA, $10650 DD, $111900 FF

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Prince Fielder – Fielder broke out his boom-stick for the first time this season last night and now has multiple hits in eight of his last eleven games. He owns a .965 career OPS against right-handed pitching and also looks to be back to 100% health.

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Beltre

Arizona

Paul Goldschmidt – It’s a small sample size, but Goldie has smashed Gallardo in their previous meetings; going 5 for 7 with a pair of walks. Gallardo coughed up a .328 wOBA to right-handed batters last season and Goldschmidt’s .386 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season was the best on this Arizona team.

Secondary Plays:

David Peralta

Oakland at LA Angels

Pitcher Grind Down

Sonny Gray – Gray was excellent in his first two starts of 2015, but was knocked around quite a bit in his last start against a pesky Royals lineup. He doesn’t quite seem to draw the same level of attention as many other young pitchers in the league, but Gray was a first-round pick in the 2011 draft and has amassed an impressive 2.93 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 46 career starts. Gray pitched very well on the road last season (6-3 record with a 2.51 ERA) and faced little resistance from this Angels lineup in their four meetings as he posted a 2-1 record with a 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and recorded 28 strikeouts over 29 innings. He’s not quite to the level of some of the top-tier options on the board tonight, but he should bounce back nicely from his last start. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9400 FD, $8700 DK, $6500 FA, $15800 DD, $124500 FF

Jered Weaver – Weaver finally pitched well on Friday night in Houston, but the first two starts to the 2015 campaign were rather ugly. Weaver was one of the softest tossing pitchers in the big leagues last season (86.3 MPH average velocity on his fastball) and, thus far in 2015, that’s actually dropped to a somewhat startling 83.3 mph. With that said, Weaver has never been a power pitcher and he’s able to keep hitters off balance with a heavy dose of his solid breaking pitches, but the sudden loss of velocity is certainly worth monitoring. Weaver serves up a tons of fly balls (just a 32.9 GB% in 2014) and can be burned by the long-ball at times, but this is a guy who posted an 18-9 record and 3.59 ERA in 2014. He dominated at Angel Stadium last season, going 10-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 18 home starts, but didn’t have a ton of success against this Oakland team. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $8200 FD, $6900 DK, $5750 FA, $11500 DD, $93000 FF

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Stephen Vogt – Lefties posted a .321 wOBA off of Jered Weaver last season and Vogt Is red-hot to start the season. The left-handed catcher owns a .349 batting average and 1.184 OPS thus far and has gone deep three times in the last four games.

Secondary Plays:

Ben Zobrist (if healthy)

LA Angels

Mike Trout probably earns “elite play” status on a daily basis, but Gray is a good young pitcher and Trout’s asking price is through the roof on most sites.

Secondary Plays:

Kole Calhoun, Erick Aybar

Houston at Seattle

Pitcher Grind Down

Roberto Hernandez – Roberto Hernandez draws his third start of the season tonight in Seattle, and while disastrous last few seasons in Cleveland have branded him as being quite hittable, he really hasn’t been that bad over the past few seasons. Hernandez owns a 3.38 ERA after two starts and gets a small boost from a favorable park shift tonight. With that said, he basically lives off of a fastball and changeup combination and his lack of an effective breaking ball is likely the cause for this subpar 14.5% K% last season. Left-handed batters have historically caused Hernandez a lot of trouble and, unfortunately for him, this Mariners lineup is loaded with dangerous bats from the left side of the plate. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5900 FD, $5000 DK, $5100 FA, $8500 DD, $67600 FF

J.A. Happ – Happ burst onto the scene and posted an impressive 12-4 record with a 2.93 ERA during the 2009 season, but his 4.43 xFIP that season suggested a regression, and that’s exactly what we saw. Happ now sports a career 4.22 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through 854 career innings, which firmly locks him into a role as an innings eater for this Mariners staff. However, he’s pitched quite well in each of his first two starts this season and Safeco Field should prove to be much more forgiving than the Rogers Center. Happ cruised to an easy win against the Astros in their only meeting last season (7 IP, 3 Hits, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K’s) and the Astros have struck out more often than any other team in baseball this season. I don’t trust him in cash games, but he’s certainly in play for GPPs. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $6400 DK, $5750 FA, $12050 DD, $86800 FF

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Jose Altuve – Altuve’s bases clearing double in the 8th inning won the game for the Astros last night. Last season’s batting average champion posted a ridiculous .440 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season.

Secondary Plays:

George Springer, Luis Valbuena

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Lefties own a .289 batting average off of Roberto Hernandez during his career and Cano has pounded him in their previous meetings; going 11 for 26.

Secondary Plays:

Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, Seth Smith

LA Dodgers at San Francisco

Pitcher Grind Down

Clayton Kershaw – If you’re a fan of dominant left-handed pitching, then this is the matchup for you. Kershaw may own an uncharacteristically high 4.42 ERA and 1.53 WHIP through three starts this season, but he’s still the best pitcher in the game today. The NL Cy Young winner posted one of the greatest pitching seasons of all time in 2014, racking up a 21-3 record with a 1.77 ERA (2.21 xFIP) and 0.86 WHIP all while posting the highest K% (31.9%) among qualified pitchers. He abused this San Francisco team last year, going 3-0 with a 1.69 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and striking out 36 batters in 32 innings. Securing a win will be a tough task with Bumgarner opposing him, but he’s still an elite option. Rating = 9.5

Salaries: $12000 FD, $12500 DK, $7750 FA, $21950 DD, $164900 FF

Madison Bumgarner – Much like Kershaw, “Bummy” has had a disappointing start his 2015 campaign. While many are pointing to his huge innings totals from 2014 as the reason for his poor start (and potential regression this season), I’m not that concerned. Bumgarner is built like an NFL tight end and his success is not based on simply overpowering opposing hitters. He dominated this Dodgers team recently, posting a 7-3 record with a 1.96 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and 9.65 K/9 in 10 starts since the beginning of the 2012 season. Bumgarner posted a career high 25.1 K% last season, and while picking up a “W” here will surely be difficult, he’s still a great option. Rating = 9

Salaries: $9900 FD, $9800 DK, $6900 FA, $16850 DD, $123700 FF

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

None

San Francisco

Opposing batters hit .196 off of Kershaw last season, look elsewhere.

Secondary Plays:

None