MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 29th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing!
Note: Fantasy point averages listed use FanDuel scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s scoring system, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel review.
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Milwaukee at Cincinnati
| Milwaukee | Cincinnati | ||||||||
 | Matt Garza |  | Michael Lorenzen | ||||||
| RIGHT | Right | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.634 | 0.285 | 18.6% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.234 | 0.652 | 0.289 | 18.5% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Garza (FD: $6900, DK: $6900)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.28 — Strikeout Rate: 14.0% — Walk Rate: 10.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.3%
2014: xFIP: 3.88 — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 14)
Analysis: For the fourth straight season Garza posted a sub 3.90 xFIP last year but matching that task in 2015 may prove to be difficult considering his rough start. Garza sports an unsightly 5.16 ERA and 1.72 WHIP after his first four starts to the season and we’re starting to see his once top-tier strikeout rate start to plummet (5.96 K/9 thus far in 2015). Garza struggled away from Miller Park last season, posting a 2-4 record with a 4.69 ERA in 13 road starts. While there is definitely plenty to be worried about with Garza, it’s also hard to ignore his destruction of Cincinnati last season. In three meetings, Garza posted a 2-0 record with a 0.82 ERA and 0.86 WHIP against this Reds team. He’s not a cash game option for me, but I’m not opposed to him in GPP’s. Rating = 5
Michael Lorenzen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.279 (Rank: 24)
Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 24)
Analysis: With Homer Bailey headed to the DL, the Reds will call up Lorenzen today to make his MLB debut. The 23-year-old was their first round pick (fifth overall) in the 2013 draft and has been on the fast-track through their minor league system ever since. He posted a solid 3.13 ERA in 120.2 innings at the AA level last season and has continued that success in AAA to begin this season. He was impressive at times this spring, but 10 walks in 15 innings of work ultimately made it easy for the Reds to keep him in the minors. He doesn’t possess the strikeout rates to get too excited and trusting pitchers in their MLB debut is scary. He’s not available on FD or DK for this early slate due to his recent call-up. Rating = 4
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Adam Lind – Lind is easily the most dangerous left-handed hitter on this Brewers team. He’s posted the fourth-best wOBA against right-handed pitching in MLB last season (.410 wOBA) and is off to a terrific start with his new team.
Secondary Plays:
Gerardo Parra: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.307 wOBA: 0.123 ISO: 90 wRC+
Cincinnati
Joey Votto – Votto broke out of his mini-slump by picking up a pair of hits last night (one of them a home run) and now finds himself hitting .316 with a .961 OPS thus far this season. Votto is an on-base machine and owns a .318 average and .982 OPS against right-handed pitching during his career.
Secondary Plays:
Jay Bruce: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.301 wOBA: 0.149 ISO: 88 wRC+
Todd Frazier: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.355 wOBA: 0.195 ISO: 125 wRC+
Billy Hamilton: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.285 wOBA: 0.104 ISO: 77 wRC+
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
| Tampa Bay | NY Yankees | ||||||||
 | Drew Smyly |  | Michael Pineda | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.170 | 0.486 | 0.216 | 27.9% | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.763 | 0.334 | 19.2% | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | TB BvP | TB vs R | Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Drew Smyly (FD: $7300, DK: $8000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.92 — Strikeout Rate: 27.8% — Walk Rate: 0.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 30.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.76 — Strikeout Rate: 21.5% — Walk Rate: 6.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.6%
New York Yankees vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.369 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 17.5% (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Smyly was solid in his 2015 debut last week, but was ultimately a victim to his pitch count limitations and was forced from the game one out before being eligible for the “W”. He’s till being worked back into the rotation slowly, and while his pitch count should be higher than in his first start, it is a concern for daily fantasy players. When healthy, the 25-year-old has been terrific thus far at the big league level; owning a 3.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 333.0 career innings. He was terrific down the stretch last season for the Rays, posting a 4-2 record with a 2.20 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in ten starts after the All-Star break. Heading into Yankee Stadium is not an easy task, but the majority of this Yankees lineup prefers to swing the bat from the left-side of the plate and Smyly pitched very well against them when they squared off last season. The pitch count concerns are the only thing holding him back from a higher rating. Rating = 6
Michael Pineda (FD: $8600, DK: $7400)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 21.1% (Rank: 18)
Analysis: Masahiro Tanaka was scheduled to pitch today prior to being placed on the disabled list with yet another injury concern. Fortunately for the Yankees, Michael Pineda can fill in today on his normal five days of rest. Pineda has had his own injury problems over the past few seasons, but he finally looks to be completely healthy and the results have been terrific. The Yankees have won each of Pineda’s prior four starts this season and the right-hander enters today’s game sporting a 3-0 record with a 3.86 ERA (2.35 xFIP), 1.13 WHIP and 9.47 K/9. The Rays hung three runs on him in his shortest outing of the season thus far in 2015 and it’s always a little concerning when a pitcher has their routine altered, but Pineda is still a fine option here. Rating = 6.5
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
NO ELITE PLAYS
Additional Plays:
David DeJesus: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.337 wOBA: 0.16 ISO: 122 wRC+
Kevin Kiermaier: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.362 wOBA: 0.218 ISO: 139 wRC+
NY Yankees
Alex Rodriguez – Lefties owned just a .216 wOBA off of Smyly last season, so if you’re picking against him you better do it from the right side of the plate at right-handers owned a .334 wOBA. With A-Rod sitting just one home run behind Willie Mays for fourth all-time, the baseball world will be watching. A-Rod owns a .953 OPS on the young season and is one of the few right-handed bats in this Yankees lineup.
Additional Plays:
Mark Teixeira: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.32 wOBA: 0.138 ISO: 94 wRC+
Detroit at Minnesota
| Detroit | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | Shane Greene |  | Phil Hughes | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.765 | 0.345 | 16.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.245 | 0.619 | 0.272 | 22.50% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.661 | 0.297 | 31.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.733 | 0.321 | 20.90% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Shane Greene (FD: $8300, DK: $6400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.24 — Strikeout Rate: 11.8% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.40 — Strikeout Rate: 23.5% — Walk Rate: 8.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.2%
Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.262 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 23.0% (Rank: 27)
Analysis: That thud you heard on Friday night was the sound of Shane Green coming back down to earth as he was blasted for nine hits and eight earned runs in just 4 innings against the Cleveland Indians. Greene had been dominant in his first three starts in a Tiger’s uniform and still sports a solid 3.00 ERA and 1.04 WHIP on the young season. Green posted a 5-4 record with a 3.78 ERA (3.40 xFIP) in 14 starts as a rookie with the Yankees last season and I’m expecting him to get back on the right track today. He’ll head to Target Field to take on an unintimidating Twins lineup who he mowed down in his Tigers debut. He flashed nice strikeout ability with the Yankees last season, but his fantasy value is held in check by the fact that he’s only racked up 12 K’s through 27 innings of work this season. Rating = 5.5
Phil Hughes (FD: $7500, DK: $7500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.49 — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% — Walk Rate: 1.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 28.7%
2014: xFIP: 3.18 — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% — Walk Rate: 1.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 36.5%
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.345 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 13)
Analysis: Fresh off the best season of his career, Hughes has taken a loss in each of his first four starts in 2015, but his 3.48 xFIP is a good reason not to grow too concerned. Hughes thrived during his first season in Minnesota, posting a 16-10 record with a 3.52 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over a career-high 209.2 innings. After years of frustrating the Yankees front office, Hughes suddenly developed excellent command once he arrived in Minnesota and his 0.69 BB/9 was easily the best rate among qualified pitchers in MLB last season and his 7.98 K/9 was also a new career high. This is a very dangerous Detroit lineup that he’ll face this afternoon, but they offered little resistance against them last season, allowing just one earned runs over 14 innings pitched in their two meetings. Rating = 5.5
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
Miguel Cabrera – To say that Miggy has owned Phil Hughes in their past meetings would be an understatement as the former Triple Crown winner is 16 for 34 with four doubles and five home runs off of the right-hander. Cabrera posted a .385 wOBA and .203 ISO against right-handed pitching last season and has been an on-base machine thus far in 2015.
Secondary Plays:
Victor Martinez: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.39 wOBA: 0.199 ISO: 152 wRC+
Yoenis Cespedes: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.337 wOBA: 0.187 ISO: 117 wRC+
J.D. Martinez: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.379 wOBA: 0.205 ISO: 144 wRC+
Minnesota
Danny Santana – Lefties owned a .345 wOBA off of Shane Green last season and they’re hitting .296 off of him so far in 2015. Santana owned a .369 wOBA and 138 wRC+ against right-handed pitching last season and wore out this Detroit pitching staff, posting a .368 average and .953 OPS against them.
Secondary Plays:
Kennys Vargas: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.387 wOBA: 0.252 ISO: 151 wRC+
Joe Mauer: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.337 wOBA: 0.127 ISO: 116 wRC+
Houston at San Diego
| Houston | San Diego | ||||||||
 | Dallas Keuchel |  | Andrew Cashner | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.595 | 0.268 | 24.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.675 | 0.294 | 19.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.252 | 0.673 | 0.299 | 16.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.226 | 0.573 | 0.256 | 17.70% |
| Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | Batter Splits | SD BvP | SD vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Dallas Keuchel (FD: $8200, DK: $8200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.48 — Strikeout Rate: 16.7% — Walk Rate: 10.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 69.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.20 — Strikeout Rate: 18.1% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 63.5%
San Diego Padres vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.401 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 17)
Analysis: After uninspiring results during his first two seasons in the big leagues, Keuchel broke out in a big way last season and posted a 12-9 record with a 2.93 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 200 innings. His 63.5 GB% in 2014 was easily the highest among qualified starters in the league last season and through four starts this year it sits at an off-the-charts 69.2%. For those who weren’t completely sold on last season’s success, he’s quickly put that argument to bed after posting a 2-0 record with a sparkling 0.62 ERA and 0.83 WHIP through his first four starts. While his strikeout rate leave a bit to be desired, the matchup in Petco Park is a nice one and he’s a rock solid cash game option despite squaring off against Andrew Cashner. Rating = 7.5
Andrew Cashner (FD: $8500, DK: $8500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.36 — Strikeout Rate: 24.5% — Walk Rate: 6.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.53 — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% — Walk Rate: 5.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.3%
Houston Astros vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 24.4% (Rank: 30)
Analysis: When healthy, Cashner has proven to be an excellent weapon for the Padres; and when healthy and at Petco Park, he’s a flat out stud. Cashner has struggled to pick up “W’s” thus far this season, but he sports an impressive 2.63 ERA after four starts. Cashner owns a ridiculous 2.03 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 195.1 career innings at Petco Park and has only allowed two earned runs over his last three starts. Today’s matchup against an Astros team that owned MLB’s highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching last season (24.0 K%) makes him my favorite pitching option in the early set. Rating = 8.5
Batter Grind Down
Houston
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Jose Altuve: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.34 wOBA: 0.1 ISO: 119 wRC+
San Diego
Justin Upton – Upton has cooled off at the plate lately, but he still looms at the biggest road block in this Padres lineup for Keuchel. Upton posted a ridiculous .423 wOBA and .311 ISO off of left-handed pitching last season.
Secondary Plays:
Matt Kemp: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.382 wOBA: 0.196 ISO: 117 wRC+
Wil Myers: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.29 wOBA: 0.081 ISO: 54 wRC+
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore
| Chicago White Sox | Baltimore | ||||||||
 | Jeff Samardzija |  | Ubaldo Jimenez | ||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.24 | 0.662 | 0.292 | 0.24 | SP vs. Left | 0.241 | 0.779 | 0.354 | 0.186 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.223 | 0.631 | 0.279 | 0.221 | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.683 | 0.308 | 0.243 |
| Batter Splits | CWS BvP | Batter Splits | BAL BvP | ||||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeff Samardzija (FD: $9000, DK: $9200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.07 — Strikeout Rate: 14.8% — Walk Rate: 4.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.07 — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% — Walk Rate: 4.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.359 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 28)
Analysis: A model of consistency, Samardzija has been solid so far in his brief White Sox career. After sporting a 2.99 ERA with the Cubs in 2014, the right-hander has opened the new season by logging at least six innings in each of his first four assignments. That being said, run support will continue to be an issue (the White Sox rank 29th in runs scored right now) for the Shark, and this matchup against the powerful Orioles lineup could obviously be a lot better. There are much safer options on the board on Wednesday.Rating = 6.5
Ubaldo Jimenez (FD: $6600, DK: $7200)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.12 — Strikeout Rate: 26.7% — Walk Rate: 11.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 68.6%
2014: xFIP: 4.48 — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% — Walk Rate: 13.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.3%
Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 21.8% (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Jimenez has pitched well this season, but his 68.6% ground ball rate is unsustainable. He always offers good strikeout potential (26.7% strikeout rate this season), but he is a very risky cash game play. I’m not a fan of targeting pitchers that struggle with their command and Jimenez has had a walk rate over 10% in each of his last four season. Jimenez could get plenty of run support, but he will likely give up a few runs of his own. I have him pegged as a tournament play today against the White Sox. Rating = 5.5
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Conor Gillaspie – Gillaspie drove in two key runs in last night’s game and posted a .352 wOBA and 124 wRC+ against right-handed pitching last season. He’s a nice “punt” option if you’re looking to save some salary.
Secondary Plays:
Jose Abreu: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.394 wOBA: 0.25 ISO: 153 wRC+
Melky Cabrera: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.358 wOBA: 0.151 ISO: 128 wRC+
Baltimore
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Adam Jones: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.31 wOBA: 0.26 ISO: 182 wRC+
Steve Pearce: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.377 wOBA: 0.378 ISO: 209 wRC+