MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 29th - Page Three

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-29 14:37:53

Seattle at Texas

Seattle					Texas
			Felix Hernandez					Wandy Rodriguez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.2	0.518	0.233	0.255	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.195	0.584	0.259	0.295	SP vs. Right	0.313	1.087	0.463	0.16
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez (FD: $11100, DK: $10600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.41 — Strikeout Rate: 30.2% — Walk Rate: 4.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 63.1%
2014: xFIP: 2.51 — Strikeout Rate: 27.2% — Walk Rate: 5.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 56.2%

Texas Rangers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.262 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 11)

Analysis: Fresh off of the best pitching performance of the 2015 season thus far, King Felix will head to Fort Worth, TX to battle the Rangers for the second time this season. Felix was excellent in that first meeting; allowing just one run on two hits while fanning 12 batters over 7 innings. With each passing season, Felix has improved the trifecta of important fantasy stats (K%, BB% and xFIP) and looks poised to be the clear front-runner for the AL Cy Young award. This Rangers team posted just a .294 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and no longer have many formidable offensive weapons. Rating = 9.5

Wandy Rodriguez (FD: $5700, DK: $5700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.07 — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% — Walk Rate: 13.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.9%
2014: xFIP: 4.34 — Strikeout Rate: 16.0% — Walk Rate: 6.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.4%

Seattle Mariners vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 17)
Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Wandy Rodriguez – Wandy was once a top-of-the-rotation pitcher for both the Astros and Pirates, but it’s been three years since he’s held a starters role for an entire season in the big leagues. He pitched rather well in his only start this season but he’s only five months removed from failing a physical with the Phillies and he was cut earlier this month by the Atlanta Braves. It’s unlikely that the 36-year-old can revitalize his career at this point, but he does have a decent matchup on tap tonight against a Mariners team that owned the 29th ranked wOBA against left-handed pitching last season (.284 wOBA), but that was prior to the arrival of Nelson Cruz. I’ll be avoiding him in all formats. Rating = 3.5

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Nelson Cruz – Cruz picked up three more hits in last night’s game and is now sporting a .329 average, 1.111 OPS with 9 home runs and 21 RBI’s already this season. He absolutely destroyed left-handed pitching last season; posting a .416 wOBA and .255 ISO against southpaws.

Secondary Plays:

Austin Jackson: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.277 wOBA: 0.08 ISO: 110 wRC+

Logan Morrison: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.307 wOBA: 0.144 ISO: 145 wRC+

Robinson Cano: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.382 wOBA: 0.096 ISO: 112 wRC+

Texas

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Prince Fielder

Philadelphia at St. Louis

Philadelphia					St. Louis
			Aaron Harang					Carlos Martinez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.284	0.747	0.330	0.174	SP vs. Left	0.289	0.849	0.363	0.111
SP vs. Right	0.253	0.702	0.312	0.192	SP vs. Right	0.239	0.609	0.275	0.302
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Harang (FD: $7600, DK: $6600)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.78 — Strikeout Rate: 21.7% — Walk Rate: 6.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 32.4%
2014: xFIP: 4.03 — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% — Walk Rate: 8.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.4%

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 17.6% (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Harang looked to be on the downswing of his career in 2013 when he posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.35 ERA in 143.1 innings as a member of both the Mets and the Mariners, but he was able to get things back on track in 2014 with Atlanta. He’s always been a high WHIP type of a pitcher, but he’s proven to be savvy enough to consistently pitch himself out of trouble. He’s been terrific thus far in 2015 with the Phillies and now owns a 1.37 ERA and 0.80 WHIP after four starts. He held the Braves to just two hits during eight shutout innings in his last start, but will have his hands full against this left-handed heavy St. Louis Cardinals lineup. While last season’s 7.09 K/9 is decent, I still don’t have complete faith in the “Harangatang” and I’ll only be looking at him as a GPP option on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5

Carlos Martinez (FD: $8500, DK: $7700)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.09 — Strikeout Rate: 27.6% — Walk Rate: 9.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.54 — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% — Walk Rate: 9.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.2%

Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.255 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 19.5% (Rank: 12)

Analysis: Martinez has been filthy thus far in 2015, posting a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through his first three starts. He dominated the Brewers in his last start, tossing seven scoreless innings while striking out eight batters. With Adam Wainwright likely done for the season, the Cardinals are going to need him now more than ever. Martinez has been a highly thought of prospect of the Cardinals for years, and after posting a 3.54 xFIP in 89.1 innings of work last season, he finally earned a full-time job in the rotation. He’s armed with a fastball that can touch the upper 90’s which has been accented by his new found trust in his change up. The matchup tonight against Philly team that has scored the least runs in MLB makes him a very nice option. Rating = 7

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Chase Utley: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.333 wOBA: 0.144 ISO: 111 wRC+

Cody Asche: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.303 wOBA: 0.137 ISO: 91 wRC+

St. Louis

Matt Carpenter – Carpenter picked up two more hits last night (a double and a triple) and is about as locked in at the plate as any hitter in baseball this season. He’ll enter tonight’s game owning a .380 batting average and has at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 games. Carpenter posted a .343 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and left-handed batters owned a .330 wOBA off of Harang last season.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Adams: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.367 wOBA: 0.187 ISO: 137 wRC+

Kolten Wong: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.289 wOBA: 0.137 ISO: 83 wRC+

Jason Heyward: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.363 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 133 wRC+

Colorado at Arizona

Colorado					Arizona
			Jordan Lyles					Josh Collmenter
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.286	0.844	0.372	0.138	SP vs. Left	0.28	0.741	0.327	0.126
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.654	0.29	0.193	SP vs. Right	0.201	0.608	0.268	0.194
Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Lyles (FD: $6300, DK: $5500)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.42 — Strikeout Rate: 14.0% — Walk Rate: 11.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 52.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.98 — Strikeout Rate: 16.5% — Walk Rate: 8.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.7%

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.288 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 16)

Analysis: It feels like Jordan Lyles has been around forever and it’s easy to forget that Lyles is still just 24 years old. The former first round pick has gotten off to a nice start in 2015, and his 7-4 record and 3.98 xFIP last season is pretty good when you consider that he made half of his starts at Coors Field. Tonight he’ll head to sea-level to face an Arizona team that owned just a .300 team wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2014 and who Lyles owned a 2.81 ERA in three starts against last year. Lyles does a nice job of inducing a large quantity of groundballs, but his lack of strikeouts prevents him from making the jump to DFS relevance. Rating = 4.5

Josh Collmenter (FD: $6500, DK: $5900)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.03 — Strikeout Rate: 9.8% — Walk Rate: 2.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.5%
2014: xFIP: 4.07 — Strikeout Rate: 16.0% — Walk Rate: 5.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.8%

Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.347 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 3)

Analysis: Collmenter has been a nice innings-eater for the Diamondbacks over the last few seasons, but he’s just not the most appealing fantasy option. He’s posted solid, yet unspectacular, xFIPs between 3.89 and 4.18 in each of his first four seasons at the MLB level. However, his velocity has fallen off the table lately (84.8 MPH vFA this year) and his strikeout rates have decreased accordingly. He’ll face a Colorado team that’s clearly less dangerous away from Coors Field, but it’s not like Chase Field is a pitcher’s paradise. While he did post an impressive 7-5 record with a 2.63 ERA in 16 home starts last season, this Rockies knocked Collmenter around in their three meetings in 2014. I just don’t see a ton to like here and will likely be fading Collmenter. Rating = 4.5

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Lefties posted a .327 wOBA off of Collmenter last season, but I just struggle to pay the high asking prices for many of these Colorado hitters when they’re away from Coors Field.

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Gonzalez: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.334 wOBA: 0.22 ISO: 96 wRC+

Charlie Blackmon: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.35 wOBA: 0.158 ISO: 107 wRC+

Troy Tulowitzki: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.404 wOBA: 0.207 ISO: 144 wRC+

Corey Dickerson: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.419 wOBA: 0.278 ISO: 154 wRC+

Arizona

Ender Inciarte – Despite owning a five-game hitting streak, Inciarte got the night off last night. He should re-take his spot as the leadoff man for the Diamondbacks and is a great value play since Jordan Lyles was tagged for a .372 wOBA against left-handed batters last season.

Secondary Plays:

Paul Goldschmidt: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.386 wOBA: 0.249 ISO: 144 wRC+

David Peralta: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.369 wOBA: 0.194 ISO: 132 wRC+

LA Angels at Oakland

LA Angels					Oakland
			Matt Shoemaker					Jesse Hahn
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.701	0.308	0.206	SP vs. Left	0.227	0.657	0.291	0.203
SP vs. Right	0.218	0.61	0.271	0.253	SP vs. Right	0.194	0.583	0.278	0.255
Batter Splits	ANA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Shoemaker (FD: $7800, DK: $7800)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.22 — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% — Walk Rate: 5.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 25.0%
2014: xFIP: 3.28 — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% — Walk Rate: 4.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 41.2%

Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.343 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 17.7% (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Shoemaker was quietly fantastic in his rookie campaign last season as the right-hander finally earned a spot on the big league roster after seven long seasons in the Angels minor league system. He ended 2014 sporting an impressive 16-4 record with a 3.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 136.0 innings. However, he was blasted in his last start (5 earned runs against Oakland in just three innings) and his ERA sits at 6.46 after three starts in 2015. He’ll get another crack at this Oakland lineup tonight as the scene shift to the Oakland Coliseum but unfortunately for Shoemaker, he was much less effective on the road last year (4.45 ERA). Shoemaker’s strikeout rate of 8.21 K/9 was higher than it had been in any of his previous four years in the minors, and I’m definitely not convinced his success is sustainable. With the tough matchup and early season struggles, he’s a GPP only option for me. Rating = 5

Jesse Hahn (FD: $7200, DK: $6000)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.46 — Strikeout Rate: 7.5% — Walk Rate: 4.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.4%
2014: xFIP: 3.59 — Strikeout Rate: 22.9% — Walk Rate: 10.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 50.3%

LA Angels of Anaheim vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Jesse Hahn – After an impressive rookie season that saw him post a 3.07 ERA and 1.21 WHIP for the Padres, Hahn moved 500 miles up the coastline of California with hopes of continuing his success as an Oakland Athletic. So far, so good, as Hahn has posted a 2.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his first three starts in an Oakland uniform. With that said, there are plenty of things to be concerned about from a daily fantasy perspective; 1) He’s dealing with a blister on his pitching hand that kept his status for tonight’s star in doubt all week, 2) he’s only recorded five strikeouts in 17 innings of work this season, and 3) he no longer calls either the National League or Petco Park his home. Rating = 5.5

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – Calhoun saw his mini four-game hitting streak come to an end last night, but he’s picked up 12 hits (2 home runs) over the last seven days and owned an impressive .348 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season.

Secondary Plays:

Mike Trout: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.404 wOBA: 0.283 ISO: 168 wRC+

Albert Pujols: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.347 wOBA: 0.201 ISO: 129 wRC+

C.J. Cron: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.321 wOBA: 0.188 ISO: 111 wRC+

Oakland

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Stephen Vogt: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.337 wOBA: 0.148 ISO: 119 wRC+

Brett Lawrie: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.336 wOBA: 0.177 ISO: 113 wRC+

Billy Butler: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.291 wOBA: 0.097 ISO: 84 wRC+

San Francisco at LA Dodgers

San Francisco					LA Dodgers
			Ryan Vogelsong					Zack Greinke
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.282	0.787	0.346	0.204	SP vs. Left	0.246	0.627	0.277	0.234
SP vs. Right	0.219	0.675	0.301	0.184	SP vs. Right	0.244	0.689	0.304	0.268
Batter Splits	SF BvP		SF vs R		Batter Splits	LA BvP		LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryan Vogelsong (FD: $6400, DK: $5800)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.13 — Strikeout Rate: 18.1% — Walk Rate: 12.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.5%
2014: xFIP: 3.96 — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 38.4%

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.373 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 18.2% (Rank: 10)

Analysis: Watching Vogelsong revitalize his career with the Giants during the 2011 and 2012 seasons was fun to watch, but it doesn’t seem like this story is going to end in a fairy-tale fashion. Since the beginning of the 2013 season, Vogelsong has struggled mightily and owns a 12-20 record with a 4.79 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 53 starts. Vogelsong posted an ugly 5.10 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 16 road starts last season and failed to pick up a “W” in any of his four starts against the Dodgers. With Zack Greinke opposing him tonight, it’s highly likely that the win will avoid him once again. I’m staying away. Rating = 4

Zack Greinke (FD: $10000, DK: $10200)

Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.17 — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% — Walk Rate: 5.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.4%
2014: xFIP: 2.72 — Strikeout Rate: 25.2% — Walk Rate: 5.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 48.7%

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 17.7% (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Clayton Kershaw may be struggling out of the gates this season, but his teammate Zack Greinke certainly hasn’t. Greinke tossed seven more shutout innings during his last start and now owns a 3-0 record and a miniscule 1.35 ERA and 0.79 WHIP after four starts. Greinke was a force to be reckoned with at Dodger Stadium last season, posting a 10-2 record with a 2.55 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 15 home starts. He absolutely dominated this San Francisco Giants team last season, winning all five starts while posting a 1.56 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and striking out 36 batters in 34.0 innings. He’s a top tier option in all formats. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.366 wOBA: 0.164 ISO: 141 wRC+

Angel Pagan: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.35 wOBA: 0.082 ISO: 129 wRC+

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – Gonzalez has cooled off after his white-hot start to the season, but still enters this game owning a .377 batting average with seven home runs and 18 RBI’s. Left-handed batters posted a .346 wOBA off of Vogelsong last season and Gonzalez already owns a pair of home runs off of the right-hander

Secondary Plays:

Jimmy Rollins: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.326 wOBA: 0.161 ISO: 107 wRC+

Andre Ethier: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.314 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 102 wRC+

Jump to Page 1 2 3