MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 29th - Page Two
Toronto at Boston
| Toronto | Boston | ||||||||
 | R.A. Dickey |  | Rick Porcello | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.220 | 0.665 | 0.300 | 17.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.732 | 0.320 | 14.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.736 | 0.324 | 20.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.686 | 0.302 | 16.80% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
R.A. Dickey (FD: $7700, DK: $7100)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.38 — Strikeout Rate: 15.2% — Walk Rate: 12.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 43.8%
2014: xFIP: 4.14 — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% — Walk Rate: 8.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 42.0%
Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 16.5% (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Dickey’s knuckleball just hasn’t been “knuckling” the way he had hoped so far this season and the 40-year-old will take the mound today at Fenway Park sporting an ugly 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP through his first four starts. There’s no denying the success he had as a member of the New York Mets, but he just hasn’t been as effective since joining Toronto and his 5.38 xFIP and .229 BABIP don’t signal that a sudden turnaround is imminent. He posted a 4-0 record with an impressive 2.23 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five starts against Boston last season, but this is a much more dangerous version of the Red Sox in 2015 and it’s really hard to trust Dickey as anything more than a GPP flier. Rating = 5
Rick Porcello (FD: $7600, DK: $6500)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.85 — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% — Walk Rate: 7.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 46.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.68 — Strikeout Rate: 15.4% — Walk Rate: 4.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 21.5% (Rank: 20)
Analysis: Porcello has struggled mightily to start his first season in Boston, and considering his recent 4 year/$85M contract, he badly needs to get things turned around before the home fans turn on him. While Porcello’s 6.48 ERA and 1.44 WHIP are nowhere near the numbers you’d expect from someone making $21M/year, his 3.84 xFIP indicates that he’s been the victim of some bad luck thus far. Porcello has a long track record of producing ground balls in bunches, but he’s inexplicably been burned by the long-ball as he’s already served up six home runs. It’s only a matter of time until we see improved results, but Porcello is not a strikeout pitcher (just 5.67 K/9 in 2014) and will face a Toronto team that owned a .331 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Jose Bautista – Joey Bats is off to a very slow start to the season, but he smacked right-handed pitching around last season to the tune of a .387 wOBA and 148 wRC+. Rick Porcello has already served up six home runs on the season and Bautista is 8 for 17 with a pair of walks off of Porcello in their previous meetings.
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.324 wOBA: 0.149 ISO: 110 wRC+
Edwin Encarnacion: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.392 wOBA: 0.291 ISO: 152 wRC+
Devon Travis: 2015 vs RH Pitching – .435 wOBA: .241 ISO: 178 wRC+
Boston
David Ortiz – It’s been a slow start to the season for Big Papi, but he’s starting to show some life at the plate (two home runs this week) and posted a .364 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. R.A. Dickey has been struggling lately and Ortiz is 6 for 18 with a pair of home runs off of the knuckleballer in their previous meetings.
Secondary Plays:
Mookie Betts: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.358 wOBA: 0.153 ISO: 127 wRC+
Xander Bogaerts: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.278 wOBA: 0.105 ISO: 72 wRC+
Hanley Ramirez: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.355 wOBA: 0.156 ISO: 131 wRC+
Kansas City at Cleveland
| Kansas City | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Yordano Ventura |  | Danny Salazar | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.229 | 0.642 | 0.288 | 0.193 | SP vs. Left | 0.244 | 0.695 | 0.309 | 0.271 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.249 | 0.704 | 0.316 | 0.218 | SP vs. Right | 0.284 | 0.786 | 0.342 | 0.241 |
| Batter Splits | KC BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Yordano Ventura (FD: $8000, DK: $7900)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.54 — Strikeout Rate: 21.8% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 54.2%
2014: xFIP: 3.74 — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% — Walk Rate: 8.8% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.6%
Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 16)
Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 9)
Analysis: In a battle between two fire-ballers, Ventura takes the mound tonight after appealing his seven-game suspension. Ventura burst onto the scene last year and never looked back, using his upper 90’s fastball to keep batters uncomfortable. He posted a 14-10 record with a 3.20 ERA over 183 innings last season, but it’s been his hot-headed antics that have grabbed the headlines so far in 2015. While his suspension is imminent, his appeal has at least bought him enough time to take on this Indians team who he mowed down in four starts last season; posting a 3-0 record with a 1.57 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 28.2 innings. Like any young pitcher, Ventura struggles a bit with his consistency and command, but he’s still a nice option tonight, especially in GPP’s. Rating = 7
Danny Salazar (FD: $7700, DK: $9000)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.35 — Strikeout Rate: 38.2% — Walk Rate: 9.1% — Ground Ball Rate: 28.6%
2014: xFIP: 3.45 — Strikeout Rate: 25.3% — Walk Rate: 7.4% — Ground Ball Rate: 34.4%
Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.345 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 15.0% (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Salazar has been a tough pitcher to peg thus far during his brief career, but one thing is for sure: He can rack up strikeouts as quickly as any pitcher in the game. He has been terrific in both starts this season, posting double-digit strikeouts in each and allowing just three earned runs in 13 innings. He’s flashed this level of talent in the past and owned a 3.45 xFIP over 110 innings last season. He’ll be tested this evening my a Kansas City team that has proven to be very difficult to strike out and who knocked him around a bit in their four meetings last season (although he did fan 24 batters in 21 innings). While he has the propensity to be burned by the long-ball, he’s an ideal GPP target. Rating = 6.5
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Alex Gordon* – Gordon has picked up a pair of hits in three straight games and has now smacked three home runs over the last week. Gordon led this Royals team with a .345 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and really looks to be locked in at the plate right now.
Secondary Plays:
Eric Hosmer: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.321 wOBA: 0.132 ISO: 105 wRC+
Cleveland
Brandon Moss – Brandon Moss was brought to Cleveland for one reason; to hit right-handed pitching. He started the season with hits in just five of his first 33 AB’s, but is 10 for 23 with three home runs since. Ventura seems looks to be a bit over-confident right now and Moss can make him pay for any mistakes in a hurry.
Secondary Plays:
Michael Brantley: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.401 wOBA: 0.197 ISO: 164 wRC+
Jason Kipnis: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.318 wOBA: 0.117 ISO: 106 wRC+
Carlos Santana: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.34 wOBA: 0.195 ISO: 121 wRC+
Washington at Atlanta
| Washington | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Jordan Zimmermann |  | Alex Wood | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.254 | 0.655 | 0.29 | 0.193 | SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.667 | 0.299 | 0.26 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.23 | 0.606 | 0.269 | 0.263 | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.645 | 0.288 | 0.24 |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs L | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jordan Zimmermann (FD: $8800, DK: $8600)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 5.01 — Strikeout Rate: 12.2% — Walk Rate: 5.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 33.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.10 — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% — Walk Rate: 3.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 40.1%
Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 3)
Analysis: On the surface, Zimmermann’s 5.23 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season looks atrocious. However, he’s pitched very well in three of his four starts and one really bad start against Boston (in which his defense really let him down) is skewing his numbers. Zimmermann emerged as one of the best pitchers in the National League down the stretch last season as he posted an 8-0 record with a 2.18 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 13 starts after the all-star break. He also pitched very well against Atlanta last year; owning a 2.50 ERA and racking up 22 strikeouts in 18 innings. His 8.20 K/9 in 2014 was the best rate of his career and I’m expecting big things from him in 2015. The matchup against an Atlanta team that owned just a .290 team wOBA against right-handed pitching last season makes him an excellent option in all formats. Rating = 8
Alex Wood (FD: $7800, DK: $8400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.65 — Strikeout Rate: 11.9% — Walk Rate: 9.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 51.9%
2014: xFIP: 3.19 — Strikeout Rate: 24.5% — Walk Rate: 6.5% — Ground Ball Rate: 45.9%
Washington Nationals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 10)
Analysis: After impressing the Braves coaching staff in a limited role in 2013, Wood took a huge step forward when he joined the Atlanta starting rotation for the bulk of the 2014 season. Wood posted an 11-11 record with a 2.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and struck out 170 batters in 171.2 innings. He was particularly good at Turner Field, where he owned an 8-6 record with a 2.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 10.35 K/9 in 82 innings of work and absolutely dominated this Washington team in their four meetings (3-1 record, 1.78 ERA and 32 K’s in 25.1 innings). With all of that said, he has just one strikeout over 12.1 innings in his last two starts and sports a 4.65 xFIP through four starts. It could be nothing, but it could also be the sign of some underlying problem. Rating = 6
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Jayson Werth – He’s admittedly ice-cold at the plate right now, but he’s also really cheap on most sites right now. Werth posted an impressive .410 wOBA against left-handed pitching last season and is 4 for 9 with four walks off of Wood in the past.
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Zimmerman: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.347 wOBA: 0.135 ISO: 118 wRC+
Ian Desmond: 2014 vs LH Pitching – 0.324 wOBA: 0.167 ISO: 117 wRC+
Atlanta
Atlanta
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Freddie Freeman: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.388 wOBA: 0.188 ISO: 150 wRC+
Nick Markakis: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.332 wOBA: 0.135 ISO: 111 wRC+
NY Mets at Miami
| NY Mets | Miami | ||||||||
 | Bartolo Colon |  | Mat Latos | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.26 | 0.681 | 0.299 | 0.169 | SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.609 | 0.271 | 0.177 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.279 | 0.755 | 0.331 | 0.189 | SP vs. Right | 0.236 | 0.691 | 0.306 | 0.176 |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Bartolo Colon (FD: $8400, DK: $7400)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.00 — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% — Walk Rate: 1.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.68 — Strikeout Rate: 17.9% — Walk Rate: 3.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 39.3%
Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 22.9% (Rank: 26)
Analysis: Colon has picked up wins in each of his first four starts to the season and had been a key ingredient to the Mets early season success. He’ll bring an impressive 2.77 ERA and 0.88 WHIP into tonight’s matchup against a Miami team who he mowed down (aside from a Stanton solo blast) two weeks ago and who he pitched very well against last season. He may be closing in on 42 years old, but nothing in his advanced stats is screaming for a regression and it just seems that Colon has somehow found a way to live off of his 88 MPH fastball. With all that said, he missed fewer bats than any starter in MLB last season (87.9% contact %) and I’m still not sold that this is sustainable. I’m only looking at him as a GPP option. Rating = 6
Mat Latos (FD: $7000, DK: $7300)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 4.38 — Strikeout Rate: 18.7% — Walk Rate: 9.3% — Ground Ball Rate: 28.8%
2014: xFIP: 3.99 — Strikeout Rate: 17.6% — Walk Rate: 6.2% — Ground Ball Rate: 37.7%
New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 17.8% (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Latos was shelled by the Braves for seven runs without getting through the first inning during his first start this season, and while he hasn’t been fantastic since, he’s definitely pitched better than his 7.31 ERA and 1.88 WHIP would indicate. The tall right-hander has posted an ERA of 3.48 or less in each of the last five seasons and his 3.43 FIP thus far this season should ease some of the early season concerns in Miami. With that said, we’ve seen his fastball velocity on a steady decline and he seems to have almost completely abandoned his curve ball this year. The Mets are off to a well-documented hot start to the 2015 season, but their lineup doesn’t strike a ton of fear in opposing pitchers. I’m not targeting Latos tonight, but I wouldn’t blame anyone who did. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Juan Lagares – With hits in 14 of the last 15 games, Lagares has been a huge bright spot for the Mets this season. The 26-year-old has racked up nine hits during his current four-game streak and looks to be thriving in the #2 hole for the Mets this season.
Secondary Plays:
Lucas Duda: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.394 wOBA: 0.27 ISO: 158 wRC+
Daniel Murphy: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.328 wOBA: 0.12 ISO: 113 wRC+
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton – It was right-handers that had more success off of Colon last season as they owned a .331 wOBA. Enter Stanton, who happens to be one of the most intimidating right-handed bats in MLB. Stanton owned a .391 wOBA and .262 ISO against right-handed pitching last season and now has seven hits (3 for extra bases) over the last four games. To seal the deal, Stanton is also 3 for 5 with a double and a home run off of Bartolo.
Secondary Plays:
Dee Gordon: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.31 wOBA: 0.09 ISO: 99 wRC+
Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
| Pittsburgh | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Gerrit Cole |  | Kyle Hendricks | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 0.729 | 0.326 | 0.221 | SP vs. Left | 0.232 | 0.584 | 0.261 | 0.13 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.659 | 0.294 | 0.261 | SP vs. Right | 0.244 | 0.633 | 0.282 | 0.162 |
| Batter Splits | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Gerrit Cole (FD: $8800, DK: $8800)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 2.44 — Strikeout Rate: 26.7% — Walk Rate: 6.9% — Ground Ball Rate: 62.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.25 — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% — Walk Rate: 7.0% — Ground Ball Rate: 49.2%
Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.311 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 24)
Analysis: If you’re not completely familiar with Gerrit Cole by now, then I suggest you get on board soon. The #1 overall pick in the 2011 draft was impressive in each of his first two seasons with the Pirates, but looks to be poised to take a huge step forward in 2015. After a mediocre start in Cincinnati to start the year, Cole has picked up wins in each of his last three starts while only allowing one earned run in each game. The big right-hander is armed with a fastball that can reach the upper 90’s which resulted in an impressive 24.3 K% last season. He defeated this Cubs team in all three meetings last season and his 62.3 GB% thus far in 2015 is an indicator that he’s really progressed at keeping the ball down in the strike zone. His numbers from last season (11-5 record, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 9 K/9) are likely just the floor for him in 2015. Rating = 8.5
Kyle Hendricks (FD: $6200, DK: $6700)
Pitching Stats:
2015: xFIP: 3.13 — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% — Walk Rate: 1.6% — Ground Ball Rate: 53.1%
2014: xFIP: 3.92 — Strikeout Rate: 14.6% — Walk Rate: 4.7% — Ground Ball Rate: 47.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.278 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 22)
Analysis: It’s possible that some DFS’ers will look at Hendricks’ 5.74 ERA after three starts and scratch him off their pitching list, but I think that could be a mistake. After a rough season opener (at Coors Field), Hendricks has pitched rather well in each of his last two starts and that’s backed up by his 3.13 xFIP. The 25-year-old was dynamite at Wrigley Field last season, posting a 4-1 record with a 1.99 ERA in seven starts. With that said, he’s proven to be more of a pitch-to-contact pitcher who relies on keeping the ball down in the strike zone and therefore doesn’t usually post inspiring strikeout numbers (5.27 K/9 last season). This Pirates team owned an impressive .329 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season making Hendricks a bit too risky for my liking in cash games and not quite enough upside for GPPs. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
Starling Marte – Marte smacked his sixth home run of the season in last night’s game and is really starting to heat up at the plate after an eerily slow start to the season. He’s now batting .345 with three home runs over the last nine games.
Secondary Plays:
Andrew McCutchen: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.415 wOBA: 0.225 ISO: 170 wRC+
Chicago Cubs
No Elite Plays
Secondary Plays:
Kris Bryant: 2015 vs RH Pitching – .452 wOBA: .100 ISO: 191 wRC+
Anthony Rizzo: 2014 vs RH Pitching – 0.391 wOBA: 0.253 ISO: 149 wRC+