MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 8 - Page Three

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2015-04-08 15:16:31

LA Angels at Seattle

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Shoemaker – For a guy that rocked a 16-4 record with a 3.04 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last season, the hype machine behind Shoemaker has been rather quiet coming into the 2014 season. While duplicating last years stats seems a bit unlikely, there’s not much in Shoemakers advanced stats to hint that a major regression is imminent. Shoemaker pitched at a Cy Young-caliber level down the stretch, posting a 9-2 record with a Kershaw-esque 1.87 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 11 second half starts, and even mowed the Mariners down in all three of their meetings last season. With all that said, he wasn’t a highly touted pitching prospect when he entered the big leagues and he really wasn’t all that impressive in his six seasons of minor league ball. I want to buy in to the results, but just still have reservations. Rating = 6

Salaries: $8100 FD, $7700 DK, $5750 FA, $13200 DD, $95400 FF

Hisashi Iwakuma – Iwakuma wasn’t quite able to match his terrific 2013 season last year, but the Mariners have to be pleased with his 15-9 record and 3.52 ERA and 1.05 WHIP nonetheless. He’s been an extremely reliable #2 starter behind King Felix and has really held his own at Safeco Field; where he owns a 20-12 record with a 2.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 42 career starts. He struggled in one start against the Angels last season, but still owns a 6-1 record with a 2.97 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in nine career starts against him. A modest 7.74 K/9 and the potential for some lingering blister issues are really the only two knocks against him. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8600 FD, $9100 DK, $6500 FA, $14600 DD, $109500 FF

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – If you’re attacking Iwakuma, it’s wise to do it from the left side of the plate (as he held righties to just a .252 wOBA in 2014). Calhoun sets the plate for the Angels from the leadoff spot and owned a .348 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season.

Secondary Plays: Mike Trout, Matt Joyce

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Lefties had quite a bit more success off of Shoemaker last season (.308 wOBA vs .271 for righties) and the Mariners have plenty to choose from. Cano is my favorite option at a fairly weak 2B position as he posted a .327 average against right-handed pitching last season and now has nice protection sitting behind him in the order (Cruz, Seager).

Secondary Plays: Kyle Seager

Atlanta at Miami

Pitcher Grind Down

Shelby Miller – There’s no doubting Miller’s “stuff” but his inconsistencies and inability to consistently hit the strike zone are the reasons the Cardinals found him to be expendable this offseason. Miller’s 3.59 BB/9 was the eighth-worst rate among qualified pitchers in MLB last season and his poor control routinely drove his pitch count up quickly and forced him to many early exits. 2014 saw his strikeout rate dip to just 6.25 K’s/9 and his xFIP of 4.47 indicates that he was a bit lucky to maintain a 3.74 ERA all season. However, he’s still just 24 years old and certainly has the capability of pitching a gem every time he takes the mound. Tonight’s matchup in Miami is not overly intimidating, but the Marlins did rough him up in their two meetings last season. Rating = 5

Salaries: $8300 FD, $7200 DK, $5800 FA, $10150 DD, $90200 FF

Tom Koehler – Koehler seemingly came out of nowhere to post a very respectable 3.81 ERA over 191.1 innings last season and was even better during the second half of the season, posting a 4-3 record with a 3.55 ERA in 13 starts after the All-Star break. Despite not picking up a “W” in any of the four meetings against Atlanta last season, he really gave them fits; posting a 2.77 ERA and racking up 26 strikeouts in 26 innings of work. Koehler was great at Marlins Park last season and is well worth GPP consideration against this strikeout prone Atlanta lineup, as he’ll almost surely have a very low ownership rate. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6600 FD, $6500 DK, $5150 FA, $8500 DD, $84300 FF

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – He hasn’t had much success off of Koehler in the past, but he still posted a team high .388 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. He hit .304 away from Turner Field in 2014 and is easily the most dangerous bat in this Atlanta lineup.

Secondary Plays: Eric Young Jr.

Miami

Dee Gordon – It’s not a secret that Gordon’s main weapon is his speed, and if Shelby Miller struggles with his command and issues him a free pass, then the speedster will rack up fantasy points on the basepaths in a hurry. He hit .287 off of right-handed pitching last season and will hit out of the leadoff spot.

Secondary Plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole – Armed with an upper 90’s fastball and devastating slider, Cole looks poised to wreak havoc in the NL Central for years to come. Despite a series of nagging injuries that forced the former first overall pick to miss 10-12 starts last season, Cole still managed to post an 11-5 record and his 3.25 xFIP suggests he was even better than his 3.65 ERA and 1.21 WHIP indicates. Cole raised his strikeout rate to 9.0 K’s/9 last season and I’m expecting 2015 to be the year he finally puts it all together. While pitching in the band box know as The Great American Ballpark is a small concern, the Reds ranked 28th in MLB in wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and the cooler weather should benefit Cole in this one. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9000 FD, $8600 DK, $6750 FA, $14900 DD, $117800 FF

Mike Leake – Leake may not be the most exciting pitcher to target in fantasy baseball, but he’s been a reliable starter for Reds during his five-year career. Leake would qualify as a “pitch to contact” type of pitcher as evidenced by his impressive 53.40 GB% last season, but that approach also limited him to just 6.89 K’s/9. He pitched quite well vs Pittsburgh last year, posting a 1-0 record with a 3.21 ERA over five starts. The lack of strikeouts prevents him from being a preferred target, but he’s a fine option to fill out your rotation if he’s cheap on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7200 FD, $7000 DK, $5600 FA, $11350 DD, $81200 FF

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Neil Walker – The switch hitting Walker posted an impressive .364 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and Mike Leake was knocked around by southpaws for .352 wOBA. Walker has had success in the past off of Leake (11 for 41 with four doubles and a homerun) and just finished up a very solid spring.

Secondary Plays: Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Pedro Alvarez

Cincinnati

Joey Votto – I won’t be getting carried away with picking on Gerrit Cole here, but Votto is an on-base machine. He posted a .403 OBP versus right-handed pitching last season and has reached base in all three previous plate appearances against Cole.

Secondary Plays: Billy Hamilton, Jay Bruce

Colorado at Milwaukee

Pitcher Grind Down

Eddie Butler – Butler was absolutely shelled in his last Spring Training game on Saturday, and despite some concerns over potential shoulder fatigue, he’ll still take the mound tonight in Milwaukee. Butler is a highly touted prospect for the Rockies, but he’s failed to deliver when given the opportunity. After dominating at the A and AA levels in 2013, Butler struggled at AAA last season and was rudely welcomed to the big leagues as well, posting a 6.75 ERA in three starts with the Rockies. The Brewers owned a .322 team wOBA at Miller Park last season and will certainly be a stiff test for the young and unproven right-hander. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6500 FD, $5000 DK, $4500 FA, $8500 DD, $65000 FF

Wily Peralta – Peralta took a giant step forward in 2014, posting a 17 win season with a very respectable 3.54 ERA over 32 starts. He’s developed into a ground ball machine (53.6% GB rate in 2014) but yet still has the propensity to serve up the long ball. Despite the ability to reach the upper 90’s with his fastball, Peralta’s 6.98 K’s/9 last season is still preventing him from taking another step forward by fantasy standards. He’ll face a Colorado lineup that is certainly dangerous, but they were all bark and no bite outside of Coors Field last season as their .282 wOBA on the road was the second worst in MLB. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7600 FD, $7400 DK, $5500 FA, $10500 DD, $99800 FF

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Corey Dickerson – Wily Peralta was smacked around by lefties to the tune of a .361 wOBA last season and Dickerson feasted on right-handed pitching, posting a team-high .419 wOBA. He homered on opening day, and while this game may not be at Coors Field, Miller Park is still a very friendly hitting environment.

Secondary Plays: Nolan Arenado, Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Morneau

Milwaukee

Adam Lind – He’s been a pretty popular selection thus far this season, and with another exploitable right-hander on the bump for the Rockies, he’s a great choice again tonight. Lind owned a .410 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and found himself in the three-hole last night.

Secondary Plays: Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, Scooter Gennett

San Diego at LA Dodgers

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Cashner – When healthy, Cashner is a top-notch starter for the Padres. The problem? He seems to rarely be healthy. While his injury concerns are deterrents in season leagues, us daily players have the luxury of focusing on him one start at a time. Cashner compiled a 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 123.1 innings last season and should see some additional run support from the Padres improved lineup. Cashner mowed down these Dodgers hitters in each of their three meetings last season, allowing just four runs over 19 innings of work. However, Cashner sported some drastic home vs road splits last season and unluckily for him, tonight’s game is not a Petco. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8200 FD, $7900 DK, $5750 FA, $12800 DD, $92000 FF

Brandon McCarthy – On the surface, McCarthy’s 2014 wasn’t great as he owned a 10-15 record with a 4.05 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. However, he was the victim of very tough luck during the first half of the season (proven by his terrific 2.87 xFIP). He was able to turn things around and really became a fantasy asset as the season progressed; posting a 7-5 record with a 3.01 ERA and 8.50 K’s/9 in 13 second half starts. While this San Diego lineup is no longer as feeble as it was last season, this still looks to be a solid matchup for McCarthy. His struggles this spring are a bit of a concern, but he’s still a viable option tonight if the price is right. Rating = 6

Salaries: $7600 FD, $7900 DK, $6000 FA, $12350 DD, $80400 FF

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

I know that this is an improved lineup, but the Padres are still expected to be one of the lowest scoring teams of the day by Vegas standards and there are just better options on the board.

Secondary Plays: None

LA Dodgers

Adrian Gonzalez – Last year’s RBI champ has jumped off to a red-hot start once again in 2015. A-Gon has gone deep in each of the first two games (three hits in each) and has already picked up three RBI’s. He posted a .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching last season and is a nice play despite a somewhat tough matchup against Cashner.

Secondary Plays: Carl Crawford