MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 7th Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-04-07 23:52:11

Atlanta at Miami

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Wood (FD: $8500, DK: $8600)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.78 / xFIP: 3.19 / SIERA: 3.16
K/9: 8.91 / K%: 0.245 / BB%: 0.065
MIA vs. LH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 17 / K% Rank: 21

Analysis: Wood is of those pitchers that doesn’t have a big name, but he possesses an elite skill set in daily fantasy. He finished 2014 with a 3.19 xFIP and a K/9 of 8.9. He is not afraid to challenge batters, as evidenced by his strikeout rate of 24.5%. He draws a favorable matchup on Tuesday night. The Marlins were ranked below the league average in both wOBA and K% against left-handed pitching this season. Wood also gets to pitch in Marlins Park, which tends to treat pitchers well. The one concern here is his run support. Rating = 6.5

Mat Latos (FD: $8600, DK: $8000)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.25 / xFIP: 3.99 / SIERA: 4.08
K/9: 6.51 / K%: 0.176 / BB%: 0.062
ATL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 29 / K% Rank: 26

Analysis: Latos saw a dip in his velocity last season, which led to a low K/9 of only 6.5. His xFIP and SIERA were both much higher than his ERA. I’m not expecting a great year from Latos, even though he will draw half of his starts in Marlins Park. He is priced a little too high for my liking, although I do like the matchup against the Braves, whose lineup is just awful this season. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Freddie Freeman (FD: $3800, DK: $4600) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.388 / ISO: 0.188

Jace Peterson (FD: $2200, DK: $3100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: N/A / ISO: N/A

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton (FD: $4900, DK: $5000)

BA: 0.288 / wOBA: 0.403 / ISO: 0.267
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.453 / ISO: 0.287

Analysis:

Secondary Plays:I will let you in on a little secret: the player formerly known as Mike Stanton is pretty good. He finished 2014 with a .403 wOBA and he got PAID in the offseason. He has always crushed left-handed pitching and last season was no different (.453 wOBA). If Wood tries to challenge him, we could see a monster home run shot from Stanton.

Michael Morse (FD: $3500, DK: $3900) vs. LH Pitching wOBA: 0.361 / ISO: 0.262

Colorado at Milwaukee

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Lyles (FD: $6100, DK: $5400)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 4.33 / xFIP: 3.98 / SIERA: 4.1
K/9: 6.39 / K%: 0.165 / BB%: 0.084
MIL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 12 / K% Rank: 8

Analysis: Lyles had a nice bounce back season in 2014, which is a bit strange considering the fact that half of his starts came in Coors Field. He finished the season with a 3.98 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.4. While they were an improvement, those numbers are still mediocre for a starting pitcher. Lyles is listed as a sizable underdog in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs. He can safely be avoided against the Brewers, even if Ryan Braun is forced out of the lineup. Rating 4

Matt Garza (FD: $8000, DK: $6800)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 3.64 / xFIP: 3.88 / SIERA: 4.02
K/9: 6.94 / K%: 0.185 / BB%: 0.074
COL vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 1 / K% Rank: 21

Analysis: Garza saw a dip in his strikeouts last season. He finished with a 3.88 xFIP and a K/9 of 6.9. Those numbers look awfully similar to those of Jordan Lyles. When he’s not an elite strikeout pitcher in real life, he’s not an elite play in daily fantasy. We saw how potent this Rockies lineup can be yesterday, as they put up 10 runs against the Brewers on opening day. Garza is the favorite in this one, but there are better pitchers to target in both cash games and tournaments. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Carlos Gonzalez (FD: $3900, DK: $4800)

BA: 0.238 / wOBA: 0.315 / ISO: 0.192
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.22

Analysis: If you had the Rockies on opening day, you probably had a profitable start to the season. Gonzalez chipped in offensively, finishing the game with 2 hits, 2 runs, and an RBI. He has always hit right-handed pitching well. While Miller Park isn’t quite the hitter’s dream that is Coors Field, it’s still one of the better hitter’s parks in baseball.

Secondary Plays:

Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $4400, DK: $5100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.404 / ISO: 0.207

Corey Dickerson (FD: $3900, DK: $5100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.419 / ISO: 0.278

Milwaukee

Aramis Ramirez (FD: $3400, DK: $4100)

BA: 0.285 / wOBA: 0.334 / ISO: 0.142
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 / ISO: 0.102

Analysis: The Brewers had some hits on opening day, they just couldn’t string any together. Ramirez finished 2/3 with two singles for an average fantasy output. He’s in play once again, as he is still affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He draws a favorable matchup against Lyles, who has struggled against both left and right-handed hitters throughout his career.

Adam Lind (FD: $2800, DK: $4400)

BA: 0.321 / wOBA: 0.376 / ISO: 0.159
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.41 / ISO: 0.179

Analysis: Lind is too cheap on FanDuel. In my eyes, he is basically a lock for my cash game lineup at only $2,800. He draws a favorable matchup against Lyles, who gave up a .372 wOBA to left-handed hitters last season. Lind meanwhile, posted a .410 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 2014.

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Gomez (FD: $4300, DK: $5400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.368 / ISO: 0.187

Scooter Gennett (FD: $3000, DK: $4100) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.346 / ISO: 0.157

Khris Davis (FD: $2800, DK: $4400) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.328 / ISO: 0.212

San Diego at LA Dodgers

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyson Ross (FD: $8800, DK: $7900)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.81 / xFIP: 3.11 / SIERA: 3.21
K/9: 8.97 / K%: 0.24 / BB%: 0.089
LAD vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 3 / K% Rank: 13

Analysis: Ross is going to be on my radar for tournaments on both sites and he’ll be in the mix for my cash games on DraftKings. He’s a large underdog against the Dodgers, which does hurt his appeal on FanDuel. A win is critical from your pitcher and he’ll likely have a tough time getting run support with Zack Greinke on the mound. Ross is a high-strikeout pitcher with great upside, even in a difficult matchup against the Dodgers. Rating = 7

Zack Greinke (FD: $10000, DK: $8800)

Pitching Stats:

ERA: 2.71 / xFIP: 2.72 / SIERA: 2.87
K/9: 9.21 / K%: 0.252 / BB%: 0.052
SD vs. RH Pitching: wOBA Rank: 30 / K% Rank: 25

Analysis: Greinke had a terrific 2014 campaign. He finished the season with a 2.72 xFIP and a K/9 of 9.2. He was absolutely dominant at home, holding his opponents to a .221 batting average while striking out 111 batters in only 98 innings of work. He’s arguably the top ace on the board on Tuesday and he is my favorite cash game play on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’s a -175 favorite in a game that features a total of 6.0 runs. Rating = 9

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres face Zack Greinke, who was absolutely dominant at Dodger Stadium last season. The Padres are sizable underdogs in a game that features the lowest total on the schedule. Their offense can safely be avoided on Tuesday night.

LA Dodgers

NO ELITE PLAYS

Secondary Plays:

Adrian Gonzalez (FD: $4200, DK: $4300) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.384 / ISO: 0.236

Carl Crawford (FD: $3200, DK: $3900) vs. RH Pitching wOBA: 0.329 / ISO: 0.118